Big 12 Week Four Football Preview

#16 Oklahoma @ Cincinnati

Saturday, September 23rd 11:00 AM CT, FOX

#16 Oklahoma (3-0) took care of business on the road at instate rival Tulsa, 66-17, to clear their nonconference schedule 3-0. They now start conference play with Big 12 newcomer Cincinnati (2-1). The Bearcats suffered a really deflating loss last week to Miami (OH), 31-14. Even with that ugly loss, a road game at Cincinnati is the toughest challenge Oklahoma has faced so far this year. Nevertheless, the Sooners should come out of this one with a victory. Oklahoma is a two touchdown favorite, which I think OU will cover.

35-17 Oklahoma

SMU @ TCU

Saturday, September 23rd 11:00 AM CT, FS1

TCU (2-1, 1-0) started off its Big 12 conference campaign with a 36-13 win over Houston last weekend. They now host Iron Skillet rival SMU (2-1). The Mustangs followed up their loss to Oklahoma with a 69-0 blowout of Prairie View A&M. TCU is a 4.5 point favorite, which feels a little low to me. I think TCU wins by 7-10 points, if not more.

27-17 TCU

BYU @ Kansas

Saturday, September 23rd 2:30 PM CT, ESPN

Kansas (3-0) may have squeaked out a win over an atrocious Nevada squad last weekend, 31-24. But as many Big 12 squads are aware of, picking up a road win over a non-power 5 squad is nothing to take for granted. With that, Kansas is off to another great start to their season, entering Big 12 play undefeated. They now host BYU (3-0), who has slowly looked better and better each week, starting with a lumpy, 14-0 win over Sam Houston, before blasting Southern Utah, 41-16, and beating Arkansas on the road, 38-31. With that, I’m somewhat shocked by the Kansas -7.5 spread. I like BYU to win this one outright.

31-28 BYU

Texas Tech @ West Virginia

Saturday, September 23rd 2:30 PM CT, ESPN+

West Virginia (2-1) picked up a huge win over the weekend over rival Pitt, 17-6. That sets the Mountaineers up nicely with their only loss so far being a fairly gritty opening week loss at Penn State. Texas Tech (1-2) got a much needed, 41-3 win over Tarleton State. However, the Red Raiders’ competition quickly steps back up as they begin conference play now. Texas Tech is favored by 5.5 points in this one which again shocks me, especially on the road. I have West Virginia winning outright at home.

24-17 West Virginia

Oklahoma State @ Iowa State

Saturday, September 23rd 3:00 PM CT, FS1

Talk about two teams that had an awful weekend last week. Iowa State (1-2) couldn’t get ANYTHING going offensively at Ohio, losing 10-7 (with some controversy over what looked like a made field goal getting called no good). Oklahoma State (2-1) had an even worse game, losing 33-7 at home to South Alabama. The Cowboys got absolutely worked on both sides of the ball on their home field which is really demoralizing after a nice road win over Arizona State the week prior. So who knows what to make of either of these teams, other than I do think Iowa State’s defense is pretty good. Iowa State is a two point favorite, which seems fair in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair.

13-10 Iowa State

Sam Houston @ Houston

Saturday, September 23rd 6:00 PM CT, ESPN+

Houston (1-2, 0-1) is just not that good this year. They barely beat UTSA in week one, 17-14. After that, they’ve lost to Rice, 43-41, and TCU, 36-13. They now host Sam Houston (0-2) who might not have a win, but has a for real defense. They held BYU to 14 points and Air Force to 13 points. So this is going to be an ugly, ugly game. I think it’s one that Houston ultimately wins, but it might be because of a single touchdown. Houston is a 14.5 point favorite, which I don’t trust at all.

7-3 Houston

#3 Texas @ Baylor

Saturday, September 23rd 6:30 PM CT, ABC

Baylor (1-2) finally snapped a long, long losing streak dating to last season, beating Long Island 30-7. They now host #3 Texas (3-0) in what should be a very challenging game for the Bears. Texas has jumped up so far in the polls after a 34-24 victory at Alabama in week two. The Longhorns did look a bit suspect early in their game against Wyoming last weekend, before ultimately pulling away for a 31-10 win. I actually do think Baylor keeps this one interesting for a while, especially since this is the last time these two teams will probably play each other for a good while. But ultimately I just don’t see where Baylor gets the separation to win this one. If quarterback Blake Shapen were good to go, that would certainly help. But it looks like he will still be out for this one. Texas is a 14.5 point favorite, which I think Baylor covers.

38-28 Texas

UCF @ Kansas State

Saturday, September 23rd 7:00 PM CT, FS1

UCF (3-0) is off to a solid 3-0 start to the season after wins over Kent State, Boise State, and Villanova. They now travel to Kansas State (2-1) for the Knights’ first Big 12 conference game. KState lost in heartbreaking fashion at Missouri after the Tigers drilled a 61-yard field goal as time expired to win 30-27. Kansas State is a seven point favorite in this one. I’ve got this game as more of a toss up, especially with the injuries to quarterback Will Howard, running back Treshaun Ward, and linebacker Daniel Green. So I’m take UCF to cover if not outright win.

23-21 UCF