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Big 12 Week Eleven Football Preview

After some clarity last weekend, the Big 12 title race continues with a number of teams also clawing for bowl eligibility!

NCAA Football: Stephen F. Austin at Baylor Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech @ #19 Kansas

Saturday, November 11th 11:00 AM CT, FS1

#19 Kansas (7-2, 4-2) is fresh off of a highly impressive road win at Iowa State. The Jayhawks jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and were able to ride that out for a 28-21 victory. Now sitting one game behind the top of the conference, they host Texas Tech (4-5, 3-3) who certainly helped their bowl chances with a win over TCU last Thursday. That 35-28 victory means that the Red Raiders need to win two of their last three to make a bowl game, which include at Kansas, UCF, and at Texas. With that schedule, I’d say this game is pretty close to a must win unless the Red Raiders are looking to spring a huge upset on the Longhorns. However, even in such a situation, Kansas just has a much more consistent offense and a good enough defense to secure some separation from the Red Raiders. Kansas is a 3.5 point favorite, which I have them covering.

31-20 Kansas

Baylor @ Kansas State

Saturday, November 11th 2:00 PM CT, ESPN+

After losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Houston, Baylor (3-6, 2-4) now must win each of its last three games (at Kansas State, at TCU, and West Virginia) in order to make a bowl game. I’ll just say the obvious: Baylor isn’t going to a bowl game this year. Kansas State (6-3, 4-2) is looking to rebound after their own, heartbreaking loss in overtime to Texas. However, these two teams just seem to be in completely different galaxies this year in terms of performance on the field. If Baylor were to somehow win this game, it would be one of the more shocking upsets of the year, but I just don’t see it. Kansas State is a 20.5 point favorite, which I have them covering.

48-17 Kansas State

#15 Oklahoma State @ UCF

Saturday, November 11th 2:30 PM CT, ESPN

#15 Oklahoma State (7-2, 5-1) is coming off of an extremely emotional victory over rival Oklahoma to send the Bedlam rivalry off with a Cowboys win. Now sitting tied for first in the conference, the Cowboys need to focus back up as they travel to Orlando to take on UCF (4-5, 1-5). The Knights finally secured their first Big 12 victory over Cincinnati last week in a 28-26 nail-biter. And while UCF has got to feel good about that, they are at a completely different talent level than where Oklahoma State currently stands. I’ve got the Cowboys winning big. Somehow Oklahoma State is only a 2.5 point favorite?

37-17 Oklahoma State

West Virginia @ #17 Oklahoma

Saturday, November 11th 6:00 PM CT, FOX

Oklahoma (7-2, 4-2) is on the verge of potential meltdown territory after losing their last two games to Kansas and Oklahoma State. They now host West Virginia (6-3, 4-2) who gave BYU an absolute beating in Morgantown, winning 37-7. These teams are definitely trending in opposite directions, with WVU on a two game winning streak and OU on a two game slide. And while it might be easy to buy in to Oklahoma continuing to collapse, I do think they’re a bit more talented than the Mountaineers and will eke out a victory. But I don’t think the Sooners cover the 13 point spread they’re favored by.

38-35 Oklahoma

Cincinnati @ Houston

Saturday, November 11th 6:00 PM CT, FS1

After losing to UCF on a failed two-point conversion, Cincinnati (2-7, 0-6) is now very much so looking at a winless inaugural Big 12 season. This game against Houston (4-5, 2-4) is probably the Bearcats’ last realistic shot to pick up a conference victory. Houston was able to secure an overtime victory over Baylor last weekend after head coach Dana Holgorsen had the courage to call a successful two-point conversion for the win. While Houston is certainly gettable for Cincinnati, I still like Houston to win this one as they fight for bowl eligibility, especially in Houston. The Cougars are two point favorites.

31-27 Houston

#7 Texas @ TCU

Saturday, November 11th 6:30 PM CT ABC

For the second week in a row, Texas (8-1, 5-1) staved off a furious comeback bid from their opponent. Houston nearly came back and beat them two games ago, and Kansas State almost did the same, coming up just short in overtime. The Longhorns now travel to Fort Worth to take on TCU (4-5, 2-4). The Horned Frogs are reeling after losing to Texas Tech, a game they likely needed for bowl eligibility. With that off the table, the Horned Frogs need to win two of the three of Texas, Baylor, and at Oklahoma. So while they’ll likely be favored against Baylor, they’d need to pull an upset over Texas or Oklahoma. And while TCU will likely be out for blood in their last shot at Texas for a while, I just don’t see it happening as Texas is fighting for the top spot in the Big 12. Texas is a ten point favorite, which they cover.

42-20 Texas

Iowa State @ BYU

Saturday, November 11th 9:15 PM CT, ESPN

Iowa State (5-4, 4-2) is looking for a bounce back in a big way after losing a close one to Kansas last weekend. The Cyclones are now positioned one game back from the top of the conference and need to pick up some wins down the stretch to have a chance at the title game. Further, with Texas and at Kansas State looming, there’s no guarantee they’ll even make it to six wins. However, given how atrocious BYU (5-4, 2-4) looked in their 37-7 loss to West Virginia, I think the Cyclones will be able to go into Provo and come out with a sixth win. Iowa State is favored by 6.5, which I have them covering.

33-17 Iowa State