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Big 12 Football Preview Week Ten

The battle for the top of the Big 12 heats up!

NCAA Football: Albany at Baylor Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

TCU @ Texas Tech

Thursday, November 2nd 6:00 PM CT, FS1

Texas Tech (3-5, 2-3) hosts TCU (4-4, 2-3) to open up this week’s slate of Big 12 action with a Thursday night kickoff. TCU is desperately looking to rally after their bye week, with the game prior having been a 41-3 smackdown at the hands of Kansas State. Texas Tech is similarly trying to rediscover their mojo after a bye week, having lost their two prior games to Kansas State and BYU in not particularly close fashion. Dare I say, the loser of this game signals more or less the death of their season. The winner will still have some bowl game hopes. This is a really tough game to pick given that both teams are lacking a coherent offense with quarterback injuries, so I’m giving the homefield edge to Tech. Tech is a 2.5 point favorite at the time of writing, which seems about right. I’ve got the Red Raiders just covering that spread.

27-23 Texas Tech

#25 Kansas State @ #7 Texas

Saturday, November 4th 11:00 AM CT, FOX

There is a massive logjam at the top of the Big 12 conference, with five teams tied for first and two more just one game back. So this week is going to go a long way toward separating the best from the rest. This game is certainly one example of that, as #25 Kansas State (6-2, 4-1) and #7 Texas (7-1, 4-1) both vie for one of the top spots in the conference. The Longhorns definitely looked the role of one of the leading contenders in the conference as they took down BYU 35-6 last weekend. Backup Texas quarterback Malik Murphy played pretty well in Quinn Ewers absence, putting up two touchdowns and 170 yards with one interception. Kansas State looked similarly impeccable in their last win over Houston, absolutely dismantling the Cougars to the tune of 41-0. This should be a really fun game with the way both teams are playing. Texas is favored by 5.5 points, but I actually like the Wildcats here given their more proven quarterback play from Will Howard.

38-31 Kansas State

Houston @ Baylor

Saturday, November 4th 2:30 PM CT, ESPN+

Baylor (3-5, 2-3) is in a really bleh situation right now. We all know that after their demoralizing loss to Iowa State. However, Houston (3-5, 1-4) is in a similarly bad, if not worse, situation after their complete annihilation at the hands of Kansas State, 41-0. Both of these teams are certainly staring down a sub .500 season unless they can start pulling together some wins quick. The loser of this game is, to my eye, all but mathematically eliminated from a bowl game. The winner still has a lot of work to do but a victory would certainly help. Even with all of the bad vibes circling the Baylor program, they still have a lot of talent that can randomly pop up. Houston has the same, if not worse vibes, with worse talent. Combine that with this being a home game (even though Baylor has actually performed worse at home this season) and I’m picking the Bears here. Given how the rest of the schedule looks, this might very well be the last game I pick them to win, sadly. Baylor is a 4.5 point favorite, which I could see them covering, but I also somewhat expect Baylor to win on a last second field goal or something of that sort.

41-38 Baylor

#10 Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State

Saturday, November 4th 2:30 PM CT, ABC

A few weeks ago, I, along with most people, thought what might be the last Bedlam matchup for a while was going to be a boring one as the Sooners looked like the far superior team. Fast forward to the present and Oklahoma State (6-2, 4-1) is on a four-game winning streak, tied for first in the Big 12. #10 Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1) is similarly tied at the top of the conference, but they’re coming off of a loss to Kansas and a scare from UCF the week prior. So as things stand right now, Oklahoma State is playing the better football in the state of Oklahoma. And with this being the last rendition of this rivalry for a while, both teams are going to come out looking for blood. Oklahoma is probably the better team and has more or less owned this series. The Sooners are also a 6.5 point favorite here, but I like a spicy Mike Gundy and squad to send this rivalry off into the sunset with a home win for the Pokes.

37-33 Oklahoma State

UCF @ Cincinnati

Saturday, November 4th 2:30 PM CT, FS1

This game is a battle for the bottom of the Big 12, as Cincinnati (2-6, 0-5) and UCF (3-5, 0-5) both look for their first win in Big 12 conference play. The winner will have finally cleared that hurdle, while the loser will very likely be looking at a winless inaugural Big 12 campaign. To their credit, UCF has been playing teams tough, losing close games to Oklahoma and Baylor. However, their last game against West Virginia, a 41-28 loss, was pretty disappointing. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has kind of been getting clocked by their Big 12 competition, with the exception of a three-point loss to Baylor. Neither of these teams are good by any stretch, but I’ve certainly seen more to be impressed with from UCF. The Knights are five-point favorites here, which is a little high for me. But I do have UCF winning.

28-25 UCF

BYU @ West Virginia

Saturday, November 4th 6:00 PM CT, FS1

West Virginia (5-3, 3-2) is sitting one game behind the big pack of teams tied for first in the Big 12. So they certainly still have a shot at making a Big 12 title game push, but there is no room for error. That starts as they host BYU (5-3, 2-3). To the Cougars’ credit, of the new Big 12 additions, they have been by far the most competitive. However, that didn’t really show last week as they got slowly picked apart by Texas in a 35-6 loss. The Mountaineers recovered nicely from a two-game losing streak to Houston and Oklahoma State with a quality win at UCF. I like West Virginia to pick up a home win here and stay within striking distance of the top of the Big 12. WVU is favored by eight, which seems a bit too lofty.

31-26 West Virginia

#22 Kansas @ Iowa State

Saturday, November 4th 6:00 PM CT, ESPN

Maybe somewhat surprisingly to some, this game between #22 Kansas (6-2, 3-2) and Iowa State (5-3, 4-1) could have a lot of significance in the unfolding Big 12 title race. Iowa State sits tied for first in the conference, with their one loss coming to Oklahoma. Kansas is positioned one game behind the first place logjam, with their most recent win over Oklahoma setting up the conference for a frenetic finish. Iowa State has been cruising since their loss to Oklahoma, winning their last three by at least 12 points each, including their most recent 30-18 win over Baylor. With Iowa State playing the way they have been, and a night atmosphere in Ames, I like Iowa State to win and cover the 2.5 point spread in their favor.

35-27 Iowa State