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Week 5 Advanced Stats: The Big 12 Conference

BIG 12. STATS. CHARTS. EVERYTHING YOU EVER WANTED IN ONE PLACE.

By Mark C. Moore
Ronald Martinez

It's a week full of restarted features here at ODB, and the next in line is my Advanced Stats Rankings for the Big 12 Conference.  As always, these numbers are not made up or fabricated out of the ether; they come to us straight from the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com.

The way this generally works is that the chart is organized left to right by overall F/+, with all of the submetrics listed from top to bottom.  After that, I'll give you a few thoughts and rank the teams by offense and defense.  That part will be something I make up for now since we don't have specific unit rankings yet for F/+ and I'm not sure when we will.

So here's the chart. Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com


 Oklahoma Baylor
 TCU
 Oklahoma State
 Kansas State West Virginia
 Texas Texas Tech
 Iowa State Kansas
OVERALL:
F+/ S&P+ /FEI		 4 / 3 / 8 6 / 2 / 17 18 / 12 / 19
 19 / 20 /15 29 / 37 / 22 43 / 38 / 48
 54 / 58 / 54 58 / 49 / 66
 66 / 104 / 42 90 / 91 / 91
2014 F/+ Special Teams
 -- --
 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
 --
2014 FPA 18 6
 11
 91 78 73
 89 108 36 55
O/D Categories OU O OU D BU O BU D TCU O TCU D OSU O OSU D KSU O KSU D WVU O WVU D UT O UT D TT O TT D ISU O ISU D KU O KU D
2014 FEI Rk* 10
 9 20 3
 87
 1
 54 30 63
 54 60
 92
 95 15 34
 116
 61
 80
 112 50
2014 FD Rk 50 39 5 3 30 52
 117 27 94 78 26 38 93 26 58 82 41 60 104
 43
2014 AY Rk 20
 16
 4 1
 70
 3
 89
 24
 49 57
 40 74 108 20
 45
 110
 61 85
 114 43
2014 Ex Rk 16
 36 22 12
 122 1
 38
 102
 64
 16
 52 81
 117
 54
 33
 70
 108
 65
 85 110
2014 Me Rk 97
 26
 15
 1
 111 19
 91
 11 16
 92
 60
 87
 71
 44
 99 128
 9
 93
 103
 25
2014 Va Rk 19
 10 3 2 85
 1 68 35 27
 11
 42
 95
 94
 37
 50
 118
 78 88
 116
 26
2014 S&P+ Rk
 18 3
 2 10 16
 13 28 31 40 42 23 63 86 34 25 90 78 105 113 45
2014 Success Rate
 28 6
 51
 1 3
 3
 92 16
 15 71
 52
 73
 91 65
 13 120 71
 117
 108
 18
2014 IsoPPP
15 56
 1
 1
 96 4
 6 103 88 11 73
 97
 109 19
 51
 25
 120 47
 79 100
2014 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 17 12
 4
 1 5 2
 24
 31
 37
 27 58 106
 92 71
 25
 91
 103 113 100
 7
2014 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 23 27 1 1
 100
 4
 69
 46 52
 59
 66
 24 102 98
 26
 92
 88
 62
 120 101
2014 Rushing S&P+ Rk 11 9
 19
 1
 5
 6
 30
 18 21
 13 111
 97
 78
 85
 38 124 113 113
 82
 34
2014 Passing S&P+ Rk 38 18
 1
 1
 40 2

46

 48 57
 87
 34 54 102 75
 28 10
 83
 71
 115 38

*We don't actually have OFEI or DFEI yet for this season, so I'm using OE and DE in their place.  It's the way the teams are ranked on the offensive and defensive FEI pages, so it makes sense.

I kicked things off this year using the same format that I employed early last year that had everything together in one graph.  I did that because I found that post first while searching, rather than one from later in the year that had things broken up by overall rankings, offense, and defense.  In the comments, let me know which format you prefer and I'll use that next week.

Big 12 Conference by F/+

1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Baylor Bears
3. TCU Horned Frogs
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
5. Kansas State Wildcats
6. West Virginia Mountaineers
7. Texas Longhorns
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
9. Iowa St. Cyclones
10. Kansas Jayhawks

The top two here were pretty easy to guess, but are you surprised to see TCU in the #3 spot in the Big 12?  I was.  The Horned Frogs will be a team to watch this season in the rankings, if only because FEI and S&P+ disagree so wildly on how good they are offensively.

I find it somewhat funny that Auburn had to do so much and get so many great rolls to beat the Big 12's #5 team by F/+.  Same goes for Alabama and WVU without the "great rolls" part, and with WVU at #6 instead of #5.

Big 12 Offenses

Because we don't have the F/+ rankings for each team unit yet, the next two sections are going to be done purely by arithmetic mean of FEI and S&P+ (in parenthesis so you can check my work).

1. Baylor (11)
2. Oklahoma (14)
3. Texas Tech (29.5)
4. Oklahoma State (41)
5. West Virginia (41.5)
6. TCU (51.5)
6. Kansas State (51.5)
8. Iowa State (69.5)
9. Texas (90.5)
10. Kansas (112.5)

Saturday's matchup of UT-KU will pit the two worst offenses in the conference against each other, so you might want to bet the under.  As far as everyone else, I think this worked out about the way most expected, though I figured WVU might be slightly higher after seeing them through the first few weeks.

Big 12 Defenses

1. Oklahoma (6)
2. Baylor (6.5)
3. TCU (7)
4. Texas (24.5)
5. West Virginia (30.5)
5. Oklahoma State (30.5)
7. Kansas (47.5)
8. Kansas State (48)
9. Iowa State (92.5)
10. Texas Tech (108)

The top three defenses in the conference are separated by just a single point in arithmetic means, basically a meaningless difference.  If you like FEI, it goes TCU->BU->OU.  If you like S&P+, it's OU->BU->TCU.  Interesting how that worked out.

Starting next week, I'll include team-by-team thoughts and notes, since we'll have another game under our belts conference-wide including several conference matchups.  For tomorrow night, it's not hard at all to see why Okie State is favored over Texas Tech.  OSU could run all over them.

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