Interesting Individual Baylor and Big 12 Statistical Betting Lines

Every now and then, I get an email to the ODB inbox from Bovada, or someone affiliated with them, detailing betting lines of different types.  Others obviously get the same email, since I see the info inside them pop up on Twitter almost immediately after the gmail ding goes off.  This morning, the email sent out had to do with over/unders for major CFB players, as well as odds for projected statistical leaders in each major conference.

Here's where Baylor came in according to the odds I received.  I'll put the odds in the blockquotes, then give my thoughts.

NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Passing Yards - Bryce Petty (Baylor)

Over/Under                              3700.5 Passing Yards

NCAA 2014-2015 Season -Total Passing Touchdowns - Bryce Petty (Baylor)

Over/Under                               29½

For the sake of comparison, Florida State's Jameis Winston had O/Us of 3474.5 and 34.5, respectively.  Should he hit these numbers exactly, Petty would have lost ~500 yards passing and 2.5 TDs from last season.

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Will Bryce Petty (Baylor) lead the Big 12 in Passing Yards?

Yes                  +150     (3/2)

No                    -200     (1/2)

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Will Bryce Petty (Baylor) lead the Big 12 in Passing Touchdowns?

Yes                  +150     (3/2)

No                    -200     (1/2)

Petty is the only player listed with individual odds to lead the Big 12 in passing, so you're basically taking him vs. the field.  Looks like pretty strong odds considering there are going to be 9 other starting QBs.

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Who will have more Rushing Yards?

Shock Linwood (Baylor)                       7/4

Desmond Roland (Oklahoma State)       2/1

Johnathan Grey (Texas)                        13/4

Malcolm Brown (Texas)                        13/4

Rushel Shell (West Virginia)                   13/4

Surprisingly good odds for Linwood to lead the conference in rushing.  I would not have expected that.  Now compare that to the following:

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Who will have more Rushing Touchdowns?

Desmond Roland (Oklahoma State)       7/4

Shock Linwood (Baylor)                       2/1

Johnathan Grey (Texas)                        13/4

Malcolm Brown (Texas)                        13/4

Rushel Shell (West Virginia)                   13/4

I think you're seeing an expectation that Devin Chafin and Bryce Petty will poach touchdowns in this.  Linwood is a smaller back, so many believe he will probably be subbed for near the goalline.  Given our tendencies in the past, this is a reasonable expectation.

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Who will have more Receiving Yards?

Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)                  2/1

Antwan Goodley (Baylor)                       9/4

Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech)                    5/2

Jaxon Shipley (Texas)                        7/2

Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma)                 7/2

NCAA 2014-2015 Season - Big 12 - Who will have more Receiving Touchdowns?

Tyler Lockett (Kansas State)                  2/1

Antwan Goodley (Baylor)                       2/1

Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma)                 5/2

Jakeem Grant (Texas Tech)                    3/1

Jaxon Shipley (Texas)                        4/1

Lockett leads just barely in yardage, but he and Goodley are tied in odds for touchdowns.  Baylor will score more touchdowns than Kansas State, in all likelihood, so that makes sense.  Grant could be a worthwhile darkhorse for yardage considering how much Texas Tech throws the ball.

Of everything listed, I'd say the best bet on the board is Petty's TD total.  If he throws fewer than 30 TDs, barring injury, I'll be absolutely shocked.  Yardage <3700 is more possible, if only because you might see us rely on the running game more as teams load up against the pass.  Still, we're going to score a ton of TDs.