It's Thursday, which means that we're once again behind schedule on our Advanced Stats posts. Sorry about that, folks. I'm going to try and get this one out and hopefully have the Advanced Stats Preview for Oklahoma State out either this evening or tomorrow morning at the latest. Since I've finally done the Advanced Stats Primer for you guys, hopefully you have a bit better insight into what these stats mean and how they all fit together. As always, if you have questions, please feel free to ask them, and any one of us will do our best to answer!
Here are the charts. As always, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com. Check out last week's post for a full look at the stats, but I'll include movement in the F/+ below each table.
Big 12 Conference by F/+
||Oklahoma State||Texas Tech||Iowa State||Kansas|
F+/ S&P+ /FEI
|6 / 11 / 10||9 / 6 / 6||12 / 12 / 20||26 / 28 / 28||28 / 19 / 36||53 / 35 / 66||76 / 73 / 87||78 / 88 / 90||83 / 107 / 81||93 / 99 / 89|
|F/+ Special Teams
Big 12 Standings According to Overall F/+
The rankings below are according to Overall F/+. Everyone stayed in the same position relative to one another in the Big 12, so the number in parentheses is the change in overall ranking for each team week-over-week.
1. TCU Horned Frogs (+1)
2. Baylor Bears (-1)
3. Oklahoma Sooners (-1)
4. Kansas State Wildcats (0)
5. West Virginia Mountaineers (-1)
6. Texas Longhorns (0)
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-7)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3)
9. Iowa St. Cyclones (-3)
10. Kansas Jayhawks (+9)
Very little movement this week. The Bears moved down a spot owing to their off week. Despite struggling mightily in Lawrence, Kansas, TCU moved up a spot. On the other hand, The Sooners struggled in Lubbock before taking control of the game late, and dropped a spot for it. Oklahoma State looked inept against Texas and the numbers agree, while the "big winner" in terms of spot movement was Kansas, moving up nine spots. Well done, Kansas! You're no longer in the triple digits!
Big 12 Offenses
|Rushing S&P Rk||4||34||5||43||46||48||100||39||36||112|
|Passing S&P Rk||36||15||8||11||54||67||44||43||27||71|
|Std. Downs S&P Rk||19||18||5||15||59||51||79||54||52||106|
|Pass. Downs S&P Rk||17||33||7||47||45||89||57||27||5||87|
Big 12 Standings According to Offensive F/+
1. OU (-2)
2. Baylor (+1)
3. TCU (+1)
4. K-State (-2)
5. WVU (-5)
6. TT (+1)
7. ISU (+6)
8. OkSt (-6)
9. UT (0)
10. KU (-4)
Oklahoma remains at the top because of course they do, they always land on their feet. Except in the scoreline, where they lose. Thrice. The Bears and Frogs move up a spot each overall, while West Virginia, who was idle last week, drops five spots. Oklahoma State moved downward the most. To say their offense was inept against Texas would be a kindness.
I try to look at other data points, but Iowa State's Methodical Drive ranking just sits there, taunting me all the while. I can't escape it.
FEI's constituent components continue to intrigue me. Big 12 offenses seem to be wildly inconsistent, being good at being either explosive OR methodical, but not both. TCU is the prime example. They will explode all over you, but heaven help them if they have to drive the ball down the field. The Sooners are similar, though not as good at being explosive and not as bad at being methodical. The Bears, on the other hand, are consistently excellent at both.
On the S&P+ side, I begin to understand why Oklahoma maintains its stranglehold on the top spot of the rankings. Given that Success Rate now makes up 80% of the S&P formula (before opponent adjustments), it makes sense that they will be highly ranked since they are more successful than both Baylor and TCU, if not quite as explosive when successful.
Big 12 Defenses
|Rushing S&P Rk||15||18||13||17||27||43||30||104||123||46|
|Passing S&P Rk||46||21||27||42||10||3||58||68||74||43|
|Std. Downs S&P Rk||28||13||23||37||19||10||48||94||118||27|
|Pass. Downs S&P Rk||33||24||21||12||19||10||53||90||89||84|
Defenses Ranked According to Defensive F/+
1. TCU (-3)
2. Baylor (0)
3. UT (+4)
4. WVU (-3)
5. K-State (-2)
6. OU (-3)
7. KU (0)
8. OkSt (0)
9. ISU (-1)
10. TT (-1)
Texas continues to improve. Perhaps Charlie Strong is a defensive wizard after all, because he's getting it done. Thanksgiving Night may be a really interesting evening of football when Texas and TCU meet up in Austin. Owing to its struggles in Lawrence, TCU's defense tumbled three spots but retained the top spot. A solid performance from the Bears this weekend may be enough to overtake the Frogs at this point. Baylor is already tops in the conference in Defensive S&P+; their lower FEI rating has much to do with their early propensity to give up the big play, something which the Bears seemed to have improved upon, at least somewhat. There were a couple of big plays given up against Oklahoma, but not nearly as many.
Concerning Iowa State and Texas Tech at the bottom of the heap, I said it this way last week, and I feel like it's still accurate, seeing that both dropped a spot in the rankings this week:
...the Red Raiders' defense is bad on an historic level and dropped another two spots, possibly to save the Cyclones the ignominy of being the worst defense in the Country. It's a race to the bottom of the ugly tree; it's just a question whether Tech or ISU will hit more branches on the way down.
That's all I've got for this week. What jumps out at you? Let's talk about it in the comments.