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Week 15 Stats: The Big 12 Conference

After a break due mostly to despair in the aftermath of Baylor's loss at Oklahoma State, the Big 12 Stats post has returned from the grave with a new format! You'll have to tell me if you like it.

By Mark C. Moore
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

As you can see, I have changed things tremendously once again, this time in response to the positive reaction to a similar change I made to my weekly Stats Previews for each of Baylor's games. Instead of using one large, somewhat intimidating chart that was difficult to put together and even more difficult to read, I've broken things out again into Overall, Offensive, and Defensive metrics. The idea is compare apples to apples in a way that is a bit easier to digest. If you like it, let me know in the comments and I'll keep doing it. Now that I have the format for one post, replicating it will be a breeze.

So here are the charts. Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com

2013 RANKS Baylor Oklahoma State
 Kansas State
 Oklahoma Texas TCU Texas Tech West Virginia Iowa State Kansas
OVERALL:
F+/ S&P+ /FEI		 8 / 3 / 10 10 / 13 / 6 25 / 29 / 29
 29 / 31 /28 38 / 53 / 39 46 / 38 / 53
 60 / 48 / 59 81 / 94 / 70
 83 / 89 / 79 101 / 111 /99
F/+ Special Teams
 80 52 11 51 31
 57 115
 49 36 66
FPA 13 10
 40 39 46 96 86 89 71 84

The teams above are arranged by F/+, the combined FootballOutsiders metric that takes into account both FEI and S&P+. I know what you're thinking, angry Oklahoma State fans: Baylor is above you and that's awful and you're angry about it. I'm sorry. Just know that there is nothing subjective on my part from these rankings. I pull them from FO and put them here. That's it. And besides, if you keep playing the way you have been this weekend and the bowl game, you'll likely jump us, anyway.

Does it surprise you that TCU at 4-8 is ranked ahead of Texas Tech at 7-5 and just behind Texas at 8-3? It probably shouldn't. TCU is better today than when they lost some of their early games, and others, particular Tech, aren't as good as they once were. As you'll see below, Tech fell off considerably on defense, in particular. But we'll get to that after the offenses!

Offensive Categories
 Baylor Kansas State
 Oklahoma State Texas Tech Oklahoma Texas Iowa State West Virginia TCU Kansas
F/+ Rk
 2 18
 29 35
 35
 38
 84
 93
 97
 120
FEI Rk 10
 23
 25
 33
 35
 39
 80
 91
 97
 119
FD Rk 5
 46
 48
 11
 36
 42

124

 90
 109
 123
AY Rk 4
 36
 27 46
 41
 62
 113
 95
 112
 123
Ex Rk 1
 20
 29
 74
 56
 67
 102
 79
 99
 116
Me Rk 85
 31
 66
 6
 32
 83
 110
 112
 109
 114
Va Rk 10
 23
 27
 37 40
 49
 109
 107
 105
 122
S&P+ Rk
 2
 17
 30
 21
 28
 43
 89
 98
 94
 121
Play Efficiency
 2
 16
 28
 30
 45
 51
 79
 83
 93
 117
Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 2
 12
 52
 60
 36
 48
 64
 73
 86
 106
Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 3
 29
 12
 9 55
 48
 78
 85
 89
 118
Rushing S&P+ Rk 12
 19
 46
 50
 30
 69
 61
 102
 105
 88
Passing S&P+ Rk 2
 14
 24
 32
 53
 29
 78
 64
 73
 121
Drive Efficiency 2
 17
 36
 18
 23
 39

96

 103
 92
 122
DNP 2
 40
 23
 50
 38
 48

110

 95
 84
 118

So there's not much surprising here outside of Kansas State being the #2 offense in the conference, right? Their lead over OSU isn't all that big and once again, because OSU gets another game this weekend, they could still move up. 11/13s of the season (and thus the sample size for these metrics) is already over, but the opportunity remains. OSU is trending upward significantly on offense from where they were. As you might expect, three of the bottom four offenses in the conference (TCU, ISU, and KU) will be experiencing major changes this offseason with the hiring of new offensive coordinators. It will be interesting to see how those turn out.

Defensive Categories
 Oklahoma State
 TCU
 Baylor Oklahoma Kansas State
 Texas West Virginia
 Kansas Iowa State
 Texas Tech
F/+ Rk
 7
 13
 24
 29
 49
 51
 71
 72
 81
 83
FEI Rk 4
 14
 24
 27
 50
 44
 60
 63
 80
 79
FD Rk 24
 21
 12
 10
 105
 30

54

 99
 37
 18
AY Rk 10
 14
 23
 21
 51
 30
 80
 88
 79
 39
Ex Rk 17
 41
 59
 42
 30
 66
 91
 90
 76
 47
Me Rk 74
 17
 18
 43
 93
 10
 47
 41
 72
 46
Va Rk 13
 20
 23
 27
 34
 48
 87
 79
 83
 41
S&P+ Rk
 9
 11
 20
 37 53
 68
 83
 79
 81
 86
Play Efficiency
 15
 6
 32
 34 55
 65
 81
 78
 84
 87
Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 22
 5
 30
 41
 66
 79
 51
 89
 90
 72
Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 9
 11
 35
 26
 44
 42
 99
 61
 56
 98
Rushing S&P+ Rk 13
 10 24
 68
 79
 69
 56
 82
 105
 103
Passing S&P+ Rk 16
 6
 47
 17
 41
 55
 94
 73
 37
 56
Drive Efficiency 27 18
 16
 36
 50
 70

84

 79
 80
 85
DNP 17 55
 2
 32
 20
 53

80

 108
 99
 46

Worried about the Baylor offense after the last two weeks? Maybe you shouldn't be. Or you shouldn't be as worried, let's say that. In back-to-back weeks, Baylor faced off against the top two defenses in the conference by F/+, both of which are now in the top 13 in the entire country. It's true, at least part of the credit for their lofty rankings should go to the very same performances against our offense causing those worries, but there's really no way to correct for that in the data. I'm comfortable saying those two defenses are the best we have faced this season, and our offensive outputs in those games support the point.

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This took longer to put together than I anticipated because of the formatting, so I'm going to skip the team-by-team thoughts this time around. As always, if you have any questions about the charts or suggestions for how this could be done in a better way, please let me know. Also, there is likely to be some cognitive dissonance stemming from situations where a team is ranked ahead of one that beat it (Baylor over OSU, OU over UT, KSU over OU and UT). There's nothing I can really do about that. These metrics have the unenviable task of synthesizing a season's worth of data without context for how things might be right now-- just to use Baylor as an example, without Tevin Reese and Spencer Drango, we're clearly not the offensive juggernaut we once were. So don't take these numbers as the Holy Writ. I write these posts to give a general look at how the conference stacks up at any given time, and I firmly believe, despite their limitations, these metrics are the best way to do that. Reasonable minds can differ.

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