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Week 7 Advanced Stats: The Big 12 Conference

After a week off from doing this, I'm back! And I've brought a spreadsheet with me! The truth is becoming known about the Big 12, but what is that truth?

By Mark C. Moore
Wesley Hitt

Once again, I have created a chart, distilled from the metrics at FootballOutsiders, of the entire Big 12 conference and its teams.  The metrics aren't foolproof -- none are -- but I believe them to be as close as we have at this moment.  The empty cells are those for which we have no data at this point, but don't worry, it is coming.  For context, here's the last one I did two weeks ago.

So here's the chart.  Again, all numbers are courtesy of the metrics at FootballOutsiders.com


 Baylor Oklahoma Oklahoma State Texas Tech TCU Kansas State Texas Iowa State West Virginia Kansas
OVERALL: 
F+/ S&P+ /FEI		 1 / 1 / 17 9 / 17 / 2 23 / 14 / 19 30 / 46 / 21 31 / 34 / 27 47 / 58 / 46 60 / 51 / 75 61 / 78 / 48 65 / 48 / 81 104 / 112 / 101
O/D Categories Baylor O Baylor D OU O OU D OSU O OSU D TT O TT D TCU O TCU D KSU O KSU D UT O UT D ISU O ISU D WVU O WVU D KU O KU D
2013 F/+ Special Teams
 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 FEI Rk --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 S&P+ Rk 1 (1) 38 (67) 20 27 49 9

42

 58 42 16 58 54 24 84 78 73 74 26 112 80
2013 FPA --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 FD Rk

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 AY Rk

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 Ex Rk

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 Me Rk

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 Va Rk

--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 Success Rate
 1 (1) 3 (10) 53 12 43 13 87 21 61 18 29 87 67 88 83 83 108 23 112 67
2013 Points Per Play
 1 (1) 16 (24) 60 22 67 13 89 20 56 27 42 37 51 92 95 39 96 81 115 28
2013 Rushing S&P+ Rk 1 (2) 2 (2) 30 51 56 7 71 22 99 39 59 92 50 103 83 82 103 58 100 94
2013 Passing S&P+ Rk 1 (1) 45 (68) 74 5 60 25 94 22 53 14 37 29 64 84 90 37 86 63 114 16
2013 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk 1 (1) 8 (10) 64 20 66 9 94 29 106 12 33 69 45 76 95 36 100 35 118 37
Run-Pass Ratio
(Std. Downs)		 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2013 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk 1 (3) 11 (44) 44 15 38 28 64 4 7 63 84 23 75 95 73 97 95 92 97 87
Run-Pass Ratio
(Pass. Downs)		 --- --- --- --- --- ---

 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

The layout of the Big 12 is coming into sharper relief.  Baylor sits at the top, as it did two weeks ago, the clear favorite at this point by these numbers.  Behind us is Oklahoma, stronger by the raw numbers on defense than offense, but balanced nonetheless.  In third is Oklahoma State, coming off a close win against our opponent this week and somewhat shockingly the strongest defense in the conference.  Those three teams comprise the only members in the top 25 by F/+, with Texas Tech and TCU just on the cusp.

Looking at Baylor alone, my eyes are drawn at once to the raw numbers comprising defensive S&P+.  In that, Baylor looks quite strong, indeed, especially against the run and on standard downs.  The improvement on passing downs, however, is what makes me most happy.  The idea that we might be, at worst, solid on passing downs and against the pass, is quite amazing.

On the whole, the Big 12 seems to be a conference with 2 potentially great teams in Baylor and Oklahoma, another good team in Oklahoma State that needs help on offense (incredibly enough), a balanced Texas Tech that could rise, another offensively-challenged team in TCU, and then everybody else.

As I said last time...

Take a look at the numbers and let me know what you think. The point isn't to say definitively How Things Are at this point so much as to provide a base for movement in the future. With conference play kicking off for most teams either this week or next (and having already begun for the others), I figured now was as good a time as any.

So, yeah.

Oh, and Oklahoma is going to murder Texas this weekend.  The Longhorns' O is still fairly strong by S&P+, but I think that's mostly a function of preseason rankings and strength of schedule.  Without David Ash, it's certainly not as good as 24th.  Their defense is awful.  If you want to bet and can get a good number on it, bet Oklahoma.

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