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This post isn't really intended to do anything other than make you aware of the existence of WhatIfSports and its tools, if you weren't already. Their Bowl Previews are interesting reading at the least and the potential to retool things a bit (I changed, for example, our RB lineup from Glasco Martin -- Jarred Salubi -- Lache Seastrunk to Seastrunk -- Martin -- Salubi).
One thing to be aware of is that the more simulations you run with teams that are supposedly be relatively equal in talent/ability, the closer outcomes you're going to get. That's why nearly all of the 1001-simulation averages are within a few points of each other. 8 points is the largest gap I saw in the 1001 simulations on the bowl page, and they have Baylor winning our game 45% of the time.
I ran a handful of simulations of Baylor vs. UCLA just for the heck of it to see how things shook out. I think this one is my favorite, but this game, despite the score, also appeals to me. Lache Seastrunk having a big game the same day as Terrance Williams (Terrence Williams)? Be still my heart. Run a few of your own and give me yours, if you want to.
For the record, the first simulation of 2012 Baylor vs. 2011 Baylor had this year's team winning 28-27. I'm not buying for a second that game doesn't end with scores in the 40s at least.