clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Updated Opp/40: O'Neale Moves Down, Jefferson Up

New, 2 comments

The Bears were not that great last night, except for Kenny Chery playing outstanding in overtime and Cory Jefferson putting up a great line throughout.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Overall Points Production per 40 minutes (Opp/40) is a look at the number of points a player would theoretically make in a game where he did not sit on the bench, where fatigue and a few other external, non-quantifiable, factors are not in play, and had an equal number of opportunities as the rest of his team. For more information on how this stat is derived, please check out this post.

So yesterday we took a look at a new stat that I have worked on to determine offensive point scoring efficiency and after some feedback, think that the stat is a good one, but that it is certainly not an absolute indicator of what would happen should each guy get more minutes or more touches. I also believe that there should be different expectations for different positions. Naturally, it is less likely that Kenny Chery can be as efficient as Brady Heslip at scoring because he has to handle the ball much more than Heslip. However, I want to track this stat through the season with you all as I think over time it should show who are top scorers are and eventually, when I start doing this for other teams - we can set parameters for what qualifies as "great" "above average" "average" "below average" "abysmal" at each position.

The best way to understand the number you are looking at is, "If this player, based on current production, got the ball the same number of times, got the same number of shots and played the same number of minutes as everyone else - what would his point output be?"

So prior to yesterday's game, this is what the Opp/40 stat looked like for each player.

Player Opp/40
Isaiah Austin 14.1539
Kenny Chery 14.5928
Gary Franklin 15.4128
Rico Gathers 15.0381
Brady Heslip 21.6698
Cory Jefferson 15.6772
Royce O'Neale 20.5302
Taurean Prince 13.2845
Ish Wainright 09.0014

Obviously, Heslip and O'Neale lead the team in this statistic and it should have come as no surprise given how few possessions they use and how well they have played when using them. However, after last night's game - this metric moved considerably for Royce and a few other players.

Updated Opp/40

Player Opp/40
Isaiah Austin 13.8292
Kenny Chery 14.3352
Gary Franklin 15.8876
Rico Gathers 15.4979
Brady Heslip 21.5596
Cory Jefferson 16.2349
Royce O'Neale 19.0591
Taurean Prince 14.2362
Ish Wainright 08.5507

*Bold numbers are increases from the previous set*

You'll notice that Royce's poor performance directly impacted his Opp/40 line, and rather significantly. Now these lines are going to sway less and less dramatically as the season progresses unless a player gets injured or something along those lines, but after 9 games already in the books prior to last night, I would not have expected to see such a significant jump as almost 1.5 points.

The reason his jump was so significant, was because he used several more possessions than his average, only shot 20% from the field and had 3 turnovers. Now, he did make up for some of this with his 8 rebounds, but in terms of points production - it was not a great game for him.

You'll also notice that the four guys in bold, were also the four guys that stood out despite last night's lackluster outing against Northwestern St. - this is consistent with the back-testing I have done so forgive me if I seem like a kid, but it makes me excited to be quantifying this aspect of the game.