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Baylor WBB vs Kansas State: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

Baylor Women’s Basketball (#10, 17-5) has only lost to two conference opponents this year, and they have the opportunity to avenge one of those losses tonight at home against the Kansas State Wildcats (17-6).

In their previous meeting, Kansas State 68 to 59 behind 32 points from Ayoka Lee. Here are three stats that Baylor needs to do well in if they want to get the better of the Wildcats this time around.

Two Point Defense

For the season, the Wildcats shoot 49% from two (60th in the country) and 30% from three (209th in the country). They are also average in how many of their shots come from deep (32%, 172nd in the country).

Ayoka Lee is clearly the engine of their offense, though, as she has over 400 field goal attempts (no one else on the team has 200), and she makes 58% of her shots. She’s also the only player on the team to not attempt a three.

Fortunately, Baylor is much better at contesting shots inside the perimeter than outside. The Bears hold their opponents to a 5.8 percentage point lower two point shooting percentage than their opponents average in other games (25th in the country).

Lee is almost capable of outscoring a team entirely by herself; just ask Oklahoma following her record-breaking 61 point performance. If Baylor wants to win this game, they need to limit the 6’6” center. She made 69% of her shots in their last meeting.

Three Point Offense

Kansas State is a really good defensive team. They hold their opponents to a 5.7 percentage point lower two point shooting percentage (26th in the country) and a 4.4 percentage point lower three point shooting percentage (27th in the country) than their opponents average in other games.

The Wildcats are particularly elite at blocking shots. They average a 9.7% block rate this season, which is 6th in the country.

Baylor is relatively better at shooting twos (50%, 28th in the country) than threes (34%, 54th in the country), but Baylor needs to have success from deep to win this game. Long shots are more likely to create long rebounds, neutralizing Lee’s size inside. They are also less likely to be blocked by the center.

Ja’Mee Asberry’s 4 for 7 from deep against KSU previously is a great start, but the 2 for 13 shooting from everyone else isn’t going to cut it.

Turnovers

Both teams typically do a good job limiting turnovers, and neither team is particularly good at forcing turnovers. Kansas State’s offense has a turnover rate of 18.9% (32nd in the country), and Baylor’s offense has a turnover rate of 19.3% (43rd in the country).

On defense, Kansas State forces their opponents into a 0.2 percentage point higher turnover rate (157th in the country), and Baylor forces their opponents into a 0.01 percentage point higher turnover rate (166th in the country).

Surprisingly, both Baylor and Kansas State had over 20 turnovers in their first meeting: Baylor 22, Kansas State 23. If one team is able to do a better job getting turnovers under control in the rematch, it could be difference between winning and losing.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 72, Kansas State 61