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Baylor WBB vs TCU: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

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Baylor Women’s Basketball (#7, 19-5) was original scheduled to host the TCU Horned Frogs (6-15) on January 5th, but the game was postponed due to COVID. TCU is now on a seven game losing streak, and the bottom-ranked Frogs have only beaten the two conference opponents ranked just above them (and they won each of those games by only one point).

Baylor should take care of business at home tonight. Here are three stats that should tell the story of the game.

Three Point Offense

TCU has one of the worst scoring defenses in the country, allowing opponents to average 72.2 points per game (317th in the country). The Frogs don’t contest shots well from inside or outside the arc, but they are particularly bad at the latter. Teams have a 5 percentage point higher three point shooting percentage when they play TCU than they average in other games (339th in the country).

Admittedly, Baylor’s three point shooting has been streaky all season. In their last ten games, they’ve shot 48%, 18%, 57%, 50%, 45%, 26%, 33%, 29%, 58%, and 24%. Their average for the season is 35% (45th in the country).

I expect Baylor to have a good shooting night at home against this TCU defense.

Free Throw Rate

Here are TCU’s rankings for varying defensive stats: 317, 208, 339, 98, 240, 38, 203, and 283. The 38? Opponent’s free throw rate.

TCU does a good job defending without fouling (or should I say, they don’t foul because they don’t defend?). Teams have a 6.5 percentage point lower free throw rate when they play TCU than they average in other games.

Getting to the free throw line is one of Baylor’s specialties on offense. The Bears attempt 3.4 free throws for every 10 field goal attempts (37th in the country), and almost 20% of their points come from the line.

Baylor shouldn’t need free throws to win this game, but if it’s close, this will probably be a reason why.

Defensive Rebounding

TCU is almost as bad on offense as they are on defense. The Horned Frogs have the 216th ranked scoring offense in the country with 61.9 points per game, and they don’t shoot the ball well from inside or outside the three point arc. For the season, the Frogs average a two point shooting percentage of 43% (222nd in the country) and a three point shooting percentage of 29% (236th in the country).

TCU is especially bad at collecting their own offensive rebounds. The Frogs manage an offensive rebounding rate of only 25% (325th in the country), and even that would be a pleasant surprise against Baylor. The Bears hold their opponents to an offensive rebounding rate 3 percentage points below what their opponents average in other games (90th in the country).

I expect a lot of short possessions for TCU tonight, and hardly any second-chance points.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 83, TCU 54