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Baylor WBB vs West Virginia: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

Coming off an impressive 45-point victory, #10 Baylor Women’s Basketball (18-5) hosts the struggling West Virginia Mountaineers (11-10) tonight in Waco.

In their last meeting, Baylor won 87 to 54 with 20-point outings from Queen Egbo and NaLyssa Smith. Here are three stats that will determine whether Baylor sweeps the series against WVU.

Three Point Offense

West Virginia's defensive strengths and weaknesses haven’t changed much since the last meeting.

The Mountaineers are solid defending inside the three point line — their opponents shoot 3.5 percentage points worse than their opponents average in other games (65th in the country) — but abysmal defending outside the three point line — their opponents shoot 5 percentage points better than their opponents average in other games (343th in the country).

For the season, Baylor averages 35% from deep (40th in the country), but against WVU last month, they went 9 for 20, or 45%.

Two Point Defense

I’ll say the same for WVU’s offense as I did their defense - their strengths and weaknesses haven’t changed much.

The Mountaineers hardly attempt any threes, taking only 25% of their shots from deep (317th in the country). When they do attempt a long shot, they usually miss it, averaging 31% (168th in the country).

Unfortunately for West Virginia, they aren’t a great two point shooting team, either. The Mountaineers make only 45% of their inside shots (151st in the country).

Last game, Baylor shut down WVU’s offense, holding them to 32% from two. The Bears typically hold their opponents to 6 percentage point worse shooting from two (19th in the country), so this was better than expected.

Turnovers

I try not to repeat the same three stats in rematches, but there isn’t much else to write about for WVU. Their biggest strength on defense is forcing turnovers, getting their opponents to a 6.5 percentage point higher turnover rate than their opponents average in other games.

Baylor is fairly stingy in giving up turnovers; the Bears average a turnover rate of only 19% (36th in the country). In their previous meeting, Baylor had an excellent 16% turnover rate.

Baylor did just about everything right on the road in Morgantown. I expect them to have just as much success at home.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 78, West Virginia 59