Baylor WBB at Texas Tech: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

Fresh off their dominant win against one of the top teams in the conference, #11 Baylor Women’s Basketball (13-4) travels to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-9). This should be an easier game for Baylor; here are three reasons why they will walk out of Lubbock with a win.

Two Point Defense

Texas Tech is not a team that shoots the three ball often; only 23% of their field goal attempts are from deep (335th in the country). Instead, they shoot reasonably well from two, making 47% of their two point attempts (82nd in the country).

Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, interior defense is where Baylor really shines. The Bears force their opponents to shoot 5.6 percentage points worse from two than their opponents average in other games (32nd in the country).

I don’t anticipate Tech winning this game if they shoot near 40% from the field, especially when you consider the next stat.

Turnover Differential

Texas Tech is really bad at holding onto the ball, and they rarely force other teams into turnovers. On offense, the Red Raiders turn it over on 25% of possessions (264th in the country). Forcing turnovers isn’t a strength of the Baylor defense — opponents basically maintain their season average against the Bears — but the stat still favors Baylor.

When Baylor has the ball, they rarely turn it over, with a turnover rate of only 19% (35th in the country), and that should only improve after playing Texas Tech. Tech’s opponents actually turn the ball over 2.7 percentage points less when they play Tech than they average in other games (284th in the country).

How will Tech score this game? First, they have to hold onto the ball. Assuming they do that, they are going to repeatedly run into the strength of the Baylor defense inside. Tech’s best hope is to get to the foul line early and often, but that’s something they’re well equipped to do.

Free Throw Rate

Texas Tech’s strength on offense is getting to free throw line. For every 10 field goal attempts, they attempt 3.6 free throws (19th in the country). They don’t shoot FTs particularly well — 68% on the season (236th in the country) — but given enough opportunities, they’ll earn some points.

Baylor is OK at playing defense without fouling. They hold their opponents to a free throw rate 1.1 percentage points below their opponent’s season average (160th in the country). If Baylor can play disciplined defense, they should be able to win on the road.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 71, Texas Tech 61