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Baylor WBB vs Oklahoma State: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

Fresh off their exciting victory in Lawrence, #15 Baylor Women’s Basketball (11-4) hosts the Oklahoma State Cowgirls (6-8) this evening. Okie State currently sits at the bottom of the Big 12 with four conference losses, and I expect them to leave Waco with their fifth.

Here are two stats where Baylor should have an advantage that will allow them to put the game away early, and one stat that will give Oklahoma State a chance to stay in it.

Two Point Defense

The Cowgirls struggle to score from inside and outside the three point line. They shoot 41% from two (296th in the country) and 26% from three (306th in the country). They also hardly attempt any threes (29% three point rate, 254th in the country).

Baylor has allowed decent shooting from the perimeter, but they are pretty solid inside. The Bears hold their opponents to 6 percentage points worse shooting from two (31st in the country). I don’t see Oklahoma State winning this game if they shoot 35% on two point field goal attempts.

Three Point Offense

We’ve talked ad nauseam about Baylor’s desire, yet inability, to shoot the ball well from the perimeter. I think that changes tonight against Okie State.

Baylor shoots 33% from three (92nd in the country) and attempts a three on 33% of their field goal attempts (152nd in the country). Oklahoma State allows their opponents to shoot over 1 percentage point better on three point attempts than their opponents average in other games (217th in the country).

If Baylor has early success from deep, I expect them to lean on that shot throughout the game.

Turnover Differential

Oklahoma State’s greatest strength, and Baylor greatest weakness, is forcing turnovers. When Okie State has the ball, they only turn it over on 20% of possessions (59th in the country). Baylor gives their opponents a turnover rate 1.4 percentage points better than their opponents average in other games (233rd in the country).

When Baylor has the ball, they turn it over on 19% of possessions (46th in the country); however, Okie State forces their opponents to turn the ball over 5 percentage points more than their opponents average in other games (28th in the country).

If Baylor can win the turnover battle, or at the very least keep it close, they should win this game.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 72, Oklahoma State 54