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Baylor WBB at Kansas: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

It’s been a rough week for both of Baylor’s basketball teams, but the #14 ranked Women’s Basketball team (10-4) has a chance to right the ship against an unranked Kansas Jayhawks team (11-2).

Kansas isn’t a bad team, and against the three ranked opponents they’ve played so far, the Jayhawks were able to win once. Here are three stats to watch for if Baylor is going to stop Kansas from picking up another top-25 win.

Two Point Offense

Baylor is a much better two-point shooting team than three-point shooting team. The Bears make 51% of their attempts inside the arc (27th in the country) and 32% of their attempts outside (125th in the country).

Kansas is a good team on defense regardless of the shot location. They hold their opponents to 5 percentage point worse shooting from two than their opponents average in other games (45th in the country) and 3 percentage point worse shooting from three (63rd in the country).

Baylor should lean on their strength in a tough road game and wear Kansas down inside. If that doesn’t work, I’m not sure the Bears can shoot well enough from the perimeter to win.

Two Point Defense

Kansas is a great team shooting from inside and outside the arc. The Jayhawks make 54% of their two point attempts (11th in the country) and 35% of their three point attempts (28th in the country).

Baylor’s defense is similar to Kansas’ defense when it comes to contesting shots. The Bears hold their opponents to 6 percentage point worse shooting from two (24th in the country) and 3 percentage point worse shooting from three (70th in the country).

I’d like to see Baylor force Kansas to beat them from the outside. The Jayhawks only attempt 31% of their shoots from deep (208th in the country), so while KU can shoot well from deep, they aren’t used to doing it 25 times a game.

Defensive Rebounding

A close game like this may come down to who gets the most second-chance attempts. Baylor is a better defensive rebounding team than Kansas — the Bears collect 74% of defensive rebound opportunities (42nd in the country) and the Jayhawks collect 68% (220nd in the country).

If Kansas ends up winning this game, I’d bet it shows up in their defensive rebounding numbers.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 72, Kansas 66