Baylor WBB at Oklahoma: Three Stats that Will Decide the Game

After postponing the last two games due to COVID protocols, the #14 ranked Baylor Women’s Basketball team (10-3) travels to Norman this evening to face the #23 ranked Oklahoma Sooners (13-2). This should be a very competitive game that could go either way. Here are three stats that will determine the winner.

Free Throw Rate

Oklahoma is a top-100 team in contesting shots from inside and outside the arc. The Sooners hold teams to 3 percentage point worse shooting from two (87th in the country) and 4 percentage point worse shooting from three (54th in the country). Fortunately, there’s one type of shot you can’t play defense against!

Baylor excels at getting to the charity stripe. The Bears take 3.3 free throws for every 10 regular field goal attempts (48th in the country), and the Sooners are pretty average in avoiding fouls. Their opponents have a 1 percentage point lower free throw rate than they average in other games (157th in the country).

If Baylor struggles to score, their success at the free throw line could be the difference.

Three Point Defense

Oklahoma is an elite and very efficient offensive team. They average 51% of their two point field goal attempts (26th in the country) and 35% of their three point attempts (53rd in the country). They also shoot a lot of threes, taking 41% of their shots from deep (42nd in the country).

Baylor is a top-50 team on defense. They hold their opponents to 7 percentage point worse shooting from two (23rd in the country) and 5 percentage point worse shooting from three (32nd in the country).

Oklahoma is surely going to attempt a lot of threes this game — how many they can make over Baylor’s defense will determine the outcome.

Defensive Rebounding

Oklahoma is an above average team at collecting offensive rebounds; they gather 33% of available offensive boards (135th in the country). Baylor is a great defensive rebounding team; they hold their opponents to a 4 percentage point lower offensive rebounding rate and their opponents average in other games (56th in the country).

With an offense as good as Oklahoma’s, Baylor cannot afford to give them extra shot attempts following a miss.

Her Hoop Stats Prediction: Baylor 77, Oklahoma 76