Baylor now has 10 verbal commits for the 2015 class and is poised to fill out the class over the coming months. Where do we go from here?
247Sports' Crystal Ball:
Baylor's 2015 Crystal Ball Prediction List / Mark Moore's Predictions
Check back on these often; the predictions update every day.
2015 Recruiting Class -- National Rank: 18, Commits: 10
OFFENSE: QB (1/1), RB (1/2), WR (2/3), TE (0/0), OL (2/3)
QB: Chad President
QB/WR: Blake Lynch
RB: JaMycal Hasty
WR: Devontre Stricklin
OT: Maurice Porter (JUCO)
C: Sam Tecklenburg
DEFENSE: DT (0/1), DE (0/0), LB (1/2), NB (1/1), CB (2/2), S (1/2)
LB: Breckyn Hager
LB/NB: Clay Johnston
CB: Jordan Tolbert
S: Montrel Wilson
2015 Wish List:
RB (speed): Corey Dauphine (Tech, 62% BU to flip) | Tyreik Gray (100% Baylor)
RB (big back): Soso Jamobo (35% OU, 35% BU)
OT: Conner Dyer (53% Tech, 7% BU), | Deya Mhiesen (100% Baylor) | Madison Akamnonu (50% Texas, 0% BU)
DT: Darrion Daniels (100% Baylor),
OLB: Malik Jefferson (70% A&M, 7% BU) | Anthony Wheeler (69% UT, 0% BU) | Cameron Townsend (100% UT, 0% BU)
S: Kahlil Haughton (80% Baylor) | PJ Locke (85% Oregon, 15% BU)
All of the players above hold Baylor offers and have indicated at least some interest in the Bears such that their inclusion is not simply the result of wishful thinking.
Players Removed (who did not commit to us): WR Damarkus Lodge (A&M), DT/OT Du'Vonta Lampkin (Baylor out), WR Ryan Newsome (spot gone), DE James Lockhart (down to A&M/Alabama), LB Richard Moore (spot gone), CB Kris Boyd (he not comin'), CB Marcus Lewis (Florida), OT Keaton Sutherland (Probably commits to Arky soon), RB Ronald Jones, Jr. (Oklahoma State), CB P.J. Mbanasor (I think we're out), LB Ricky DeBerry (Baylor out), RB Chris Warren (Baylor backed off), QB Jarrett Stidham (Texas Tech), S Larry Pryor (A&M).
2016 Recruiting Class -- National Rank: n/a, Commits: 2
OFFENSE: QB (1/?)
QB: Zach Smith (Film)
DEFENSE: CB (1/?)
CB: KeShawn Somerville (Film)
2016 Wish List:
This will be basically a shot in the dark based off our 2016 offer list. Some of them are more obvious than others based on who we've had in town and how many times we've heard their names. I think we can assume that we'll be at 85 scholarships again with the 2015 class. We have 17 juniors (by their classification now) graduating in 2016. I think we're safe projecting a class of around 20, maybe more, on that basis.
RB: Devwah Whaley
WR: Devin Duvernay
WR: Courtney Lark
OL: J.P. Urquidez
OL: Greg Little
DT: Kendall Jones
DE: Isaiah Chambers
DE: Justin Madubuike
CB: Jared Mayden
CB: D'Eriq King
S: Deontay Anderson
S: Brandon Jones
This is by far the earliest I've ever tried to put together a Wish List, and before you tell me that the vast majority of these guys are 5*s we won't get, I know that. There will be a ton of movement on this list since I'm starting so early.
Baylor finished its summer camp season with a bang today in Waco. The camps were a rousing success with between 16-1700 kids attending in Waco (x2), Lake Highlands, Marshall, and Houston.
CB John Humphrey (6/23): Decommitted.
RB Corey Dauphine (6/21): Pushed his decision date back to the middle of the HS season. That means somet time in October, probably.
.@CDAUPHINE will not be making his college decision this summer. The 2015 RB said he will announce in the middle of HS football season.— Avi Zaleon (@avi_zaleon) June 22, 2014
WR Damarkus Lodge (6/19): Committed to A&M.
S Montrel Wilson (6/17): The 6-2, 195 pound safety from Keller Fossil Ridge became Baylor's 11th verbal commitment today after receiving his offer at camp on 6/8. He will take the spot vacated by Louis Brown.
OL Keaton Sutherland (6/16): Just committed to Texas A&M.
DT/OT Du'Vonta Lampkin (6/16): Baylor did not make his Top 5/OV list. Somewhat surprising given positive mention of Baylor in the recent past and the fact that we offered him as an OT.
Texas #HookEm Oklahoma #boomer⭕️ LSU #GeauxTigers Arizona st. #forksup Missouri #Tigers My official top 5 and Official visits— Du'vonta Lampkin (@DeeChilllin) June 16, 2014
S P.J. Locke (6/16): We did, however, make his Top 10 (in the comments).
S Montrel Wilson (6/8): Baylor offered today. That's the first offer to a 2015 DB we've seen in a while.
Just got my 6th offer from Baylor!! #blessed— TRELL (@montrel_wilson) June 8, 2014
DE Louis Brown (6/8): Decommitted today. Some have said elsewhere they saw this coming. I didn't. I don't know if he got a new offer or what.
opened my recruiting process back open, decommitted from Baylor today.— ⭐-SOPHISTICATED-⭐ (@loulouking21) June 8, 2014
LB Clay Johnston (6/3): Committed. Shocked that I didn't put in a Crystal Ball for him before his commitment. Shocked.
RB Corey Dauphine (6/3): Visited Baylor's camp Sunday in Waco, then came back for the camp Monday at Cy Falls wearing all Baylor gear. Currently committed to Texas Tech.
QB Jarrett Stidham (6/1): Also visited today (there is quite a bit of photographic evidence, before anyone tells you he wasn't there). Briles and co. were reportedly working him pretty hard, including incoming freshmen K.D. Cannon and Ishmael Zamora.
S Kahlil Haughton (6/1): Also visited today. Baylor leads on the Crystal Ball. Look at his offer list and try to tell me he isn't criminally underrated.
Talked to @Kahlilhaughton. Taking visits to #oklahoma #Arkansas & #TexasTech over the next 3 weeks and then will likely decide.— Kevin Lonnquist (@baylorrivals) June 1, 2014
OT Connor Williams (5/28): Updating this on 5/29, but the offer went out yesterday. Huge offer list for a 3* OT, including Oregon, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and a ton of others that don't start with "O". Has to be considered unlikely at this point. Shows Baylor really wants a HS OT in this class, though.
LB Shane Simmons (6/14): Baylor offered today. Take a gander at his offer list and you might wonder why we didn't do it before now.
I'm excited to receive an offer from Baylor University ✳️ ✳️ #BIG12 #Green&Gold✳️ #SickemBears #ClassOf2016 pic.twitter.com/G14p0kMmrv— ♋️Shane enahS♋️ (@Shizzeee_) June 14, 2014
CB KeShawn Somerville (6/12): Committed last weekend, visited yesterday. Ranked as a 4* by 247Sports and their Composite ranking.
2016 #BU commit. #SicEm RT @Dread_Head512: Baylor today was nice, love it http://t.co/K42LXYXrOF— Craig Smoak (@CraigSmoak) June 11, 2014
DE Kendell Jones (6/8): The 5* 2016 prospect visited today for Baylor's OL/DL camp.
OL Patrick Hudson (6/8): The 5* 2016 Aggie commit visited today for Baylor's OL/DL camp on campus. He was effusive in his praise for Baylor, the coaches, and the program as a whole.
WR Courtney Lark (6/5): This guy supposedly dominated the Houston camp on Monday.
2016 Bellaire Top247 WR Courtney Lark offered by #Baylor #SicEm. http://t.co/4gH3tQkwEn— Brian Perroni (@Perroni247) June 5, 2014
RB Devwah Whaley (6/4): Got an offer today. Seems to have felt pretty good about it.
Baylor offers Beaumont (TX) Central HS RB Devwah Whaley. Class of 2016. @devwah_whaley @gabrieldbrooks— BaylorScout Kevin (@BaylorScoutKB) June 4, 2014
DE Isaiah Chambers (6/4): Got an offer today. I've yet to see him comment on it anywhere.
#Baylor offers 2016 Stud DE Isaiah Chambers (Houston MacArthur HS, TX) @esta_guapo @SouthRecruit1 @VarsityPreps #SicEm— Coach Warren VPreps (@DemetricDWarren) June 4, 2014
OT J.P. Urquidez (6/4): Visited Baylor again today before moving to Maryland. And brought Mama Urquidez along with him. Excuse the "Bryles" part, although if that's what it takes to get him to choose Baylor ...
Baylor visit was great! Talking with Coach Bryles is always great! #baylor #bears #dreambigdreambaylor pic.twitter.com/NhShOdzvt9— JP Urquidez (@JP_OT2016) June 4, 2014
LB Dontavious Jackson (6/3): Worked out at Baylor's camp last night at Cy Falls. He's the one on the far left, I believe.
QB Josh White (6/1): Visited Baylor's camp today. Seems to have had a good time.
ATH D'Eriq King (5/30): Keep an eye on this guy. He'll be at Baylor's camp in Houston on Monday, and the Crystal Ball already favors Baylor. Oh, and we offered today.
LB Anthony Hines (6/8): Finally got his offer today. Was only a freshman this past season. Already committed to Mississippi State.
SB Nation Recruiting Scouting Reports:
The fine gentlemen at SB Nation Recruiting have been putting together scouting reports by the dozen for major 2015 prospects. A few of those reports are germane to us as Baylor fans:
QB Chad President
RB Ronald Jones
RB Soso Jamobo
RB Tyreik Gray
RB/WR JaMycal Hasty
WR Damarkus Lodge
DT Darrion Daniels
DE James Lockhart
LB Malik Jefferson
A short message about decommitments/flips:
I can't tell you how to react to bad news in the world of recruiting. It's natural, because we love Baylor, to be upset when these things happen. But I can tell you that they happen. Constantly. And if we're going to play with the big boys in recruiting, we need to get used to it. We celebrate when we successful flip players committed to other schools. It would be pretty hypocritical of us to get up-in-arms when they try to do the same thing.
Furthermore, a decommitment or flip is not necessarily an indictment on the player-- his character or level of maturity. We love Baylor because we chose it (or, in some cases, will choose it in the future) voluntarily. We grew to love it because we grew up with it or spent a significant amount of time there. These kids haven't done that yet. They're 16, 17, sometimes 18-year-old young men trying to find the best fit for them. They're going to change their minds or try to take things back, and although it sucks because we want them to love Baylor as much as we do, there's nothing we can do about it.
Now, the thoughts:
With Louis Brown's decommitment, we're back down to 10 commits in the 2015 class. I can't tell you why Brown decided that Baylor wasn't the place for him anymore. It could be that he wants to be a TE at the next level and our offense isn't conducive to that role. I'd get that. It could be that he grew up a UT fan and has dreamed of wearing burnt orange and white (this is, of course, assumign he commits now to UT, which seems likely). I could get that, too. Whatever the reason, he's apparently not coming to Baylor.
If we're talking about class size with this new information, I think we can start with the assumption that the coaching staff has included our two planned greyshirts in their calculus for available spots. That means we have the following spots covered so far:
WR (x2): Stricklin, Lynch
OG: Beard (greyshirt)
DE: Roberts (greyshirt)
CB (x2): Humphrey, Tolbert
That's 12 players so far. I firmly believe that scholarships are such a precious resource that schools don't typically offer them for the purposes of obfuscation. Thus, we can draw something about our preferences for spots by who we've offered and when. Aside from the guys like Lodge or Jefferson that you take any time, no matter what your scholarship position, my guess is that we would really like another RB in this class (Dauphine/Soso), perhaps two (if you can get both, you take them and move Hasty to IR), a HS OT (Dyer or Lampkin, preferably), and another JUCO OT (Deya Mhiesen). That brings us to around ~15 commitments, leaving 3 or 4 for the defense.
On the other side, we're probably done at CB with Humphrey and Tolbert. That's good news; they're both great fits. We obviously want at least one safety, preferably Haughton. We also want a DT, preferably Daniels That leaves 2 spots to fill in with another linebacker (Jefferson is the dream) and, apparently, a punter.
If we're talking about realistic best-case scenarios for the last 6 spots, it's probably something like this:
CB: Hill or S: Wilson
Let's do that.
6/1/2014: Created June Recruiting Thread with a host of updates on the first summer camp. 2016 QB Zach Smith commits.
6/3/2014: Started listing updates from Baylor's huge Cy Falls camp. New addition to the Wish List. LB Clay Johnston commits.
6/4/2014: Couple of new 2016 offers and a huge 2016 visitor on campus today.
6/5/2014: New offer to 2016 WR Courtney Lark.
6/8/2014: New 2016 commit. 2015 Louis Brown decommit. Updated thoughts section.
6/12/2014: Removed a couple of positions from the 2015 Wish List. I'll update the percentages later. Update about 2016 commit KeShawn Somerville.
6/14/2014: New 2016 offer for Shane Simmons.
6/16/2014: Baylor did not make the final 5 for Du'Vonta Lampkin, did make the 10 for PJ Locke. Cleaned up the update lists a bit.
6/19/2014: WR Damarkus Lodge off the board to A&M.
6/21/2014: RB Corey Dauphine pushed his decision date back.
6/26/2014: Updated Wish List %s.