Baylor vs. Texas State — ODB Staff Prediction Thread

We’re still getting back into the swing of things here at ODB going into the 2023 football season, which kicks off in a little over 24 hours with Baylor vs. Texas State at McLane Stadium in Waco. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+. If you aren’t going to be in Waco, we are planning on doing another Playback thread/viewing for the game, which was a lot of fun last year.

The current spread per various sources is Baylor -27.5, and the O/U is 59. Bill C’s projections had Baylor winning 39-7, if that matters to you at all.

THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL.

The temperature is projected to be 99 at game time dropping into the high 80s by the likely close. So it’s going to be hot. Please hydrate before, during, and after the game.

ODB STAFF PREDICTIONS:

I did a quick poll today of our staff/friends here at ODB for tomorrow’s game. The results are below

• Matt Wilson (@mattisbear): Baylor 31, Texas State 21
• Peter Pope (@pbpope): Baylor 34, Texas State 21
• David Fankhauser (@dfank_bu): Baylor 45, Texas State 21.
• Joe Goodman (@the_joe_goodman): Baylor 49, Texas State 21.
• Cody Orr (@cody_orr): Baylor 42, Texas State 21.
• Will Boles (@_willboles): Baylor 66, Texas State 13.
• Jed Johnston (@BearMySoul17): Baylor 38, Texas State 13.
• Scott Byrne (@BearNTX): Baylor 47, Texas State 21.
• Noelle Kakimoto (@NKakimoto): Baylor 35, Texas State 17.

If this looks like a smaller list than in years past, that’s on me. I didn’t give very much notice or reach very far for people, and I’ll do better going forward.

I haven’t had a tremendous amount of time to look at Texas State coming into this weekend, but I have read everything I could find from our folks here and others in other places. Seems like the consensus is that GJ Kinne’s offense at Texas State should be fairly explosive. Kinne, if you recall, is the first-year head coach in San Marcos after coaching at Incarnate Word in 2022. The Cardinals went 12-2 in his one season there. He was also a Baylor QB recruit once upon a time before ultimately flipping to Texas and then later transferring to Tulsa.

This game could be a real test of our defense, which was not good last season, under new DC Matt Powledge. That is particularly true in the secondary, which was particularly not good. I’m less concerned about the offense based on what should be, at a minimum, very strong RB play setting the tone on the ground. What will be interesting to watch offensively is how much they give Shapen to do, and how early. Do we try to open things up down the field to help rebuild Shapen’s confidence going into the new season, or do we focus more on the OL in the running game and grind them down? I can’t say.

I can say that I feel confident Baylor will win this game, but I don’t think we’ll cover unless 1) the defense really shuts down the Texas State offense or 2) we go back in time a few years to open a can offensively.

My Prediction: Baylor 42, Texas State 27