Baylor vs. Texas State—Prediction Thread

MATCHUP: #17 Baylor Bears (1-1, 0-0) vs. Texas State Bobcats (1-1, N/A)
LOCATION: Waco, Texas
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Texas State Bobcats 2022
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Underdog Dynasty (not specifically for them, but still).
PODCASTS: OurDailyPodcast | Please Bear With Me | Bear Den | Locked on Baylor | The TD Podcast | Between Two Bears
ODB QUICK HITTER: Here.
ODB DEPTH CHART POST: Here.
ODB FIRST LOOK: Here.
ODB VIRTUAL WATCH PARTY: Here.
COLLEGEFOOTBALLDATA.COM TEAM PAGES: Baylor | Texas State
WEEKLY PRESS CONFERENCE: Here.
GAME NOTES (INCLUDING DEPTH CHART): Here.
BAYLORBEARS.COM PREVIEW: Here.
SPREAD: Baylor -30 (opened at -33.5), O/U 53
TV COVERAGE: FS1, 11:00 AM CT
UNIFORM: PICKLEEEEEEEEEE. (Baylor is 1-0 this year in the pickle).

WEATHER (IN WACO):

Rather than link you somewhere or drop in an image of a forecast, let’s let the Baylor Weatherman handle this:

This is, for the record, consistent with just about every other forecast I’ve seen. It’s going to be hot.

VIRTUAL WATCH PARTY:

Last week’s Virtual Watch Party (the first of its kind here at ODB) went so well that we have decided to do another one. Join Joe, Deonte, Cody, and the rest of the non-game going crew when the Virtual Watch Party kicks off a half-hour before kickoff (so 10:30 AM).

INJURY UPDATES:

No new news from the Baylor side after the updates this week. As far as we know, Baldwin, McWilliams, and Nabors are still questionable. Doyle will miss the first half due to his targeting penalty versus BYU.

ODB STAFF PREDICTIONS:

Last week’s predictions ... did not go well. But we are nothing if not resilient here at ODB, so let’s try this again:

• Matt Wilson (@mattisbear): Baylor 69, TX State 10
• Peter Pope (@pbpope): Baylor 52, TX State 7
• David Fankhauser (@dfank_bu): Baylor 41, TX State 13
• Etta (@bayloretta): Baylor 10^4, TX State 1
• Evan Hebert (@evanhebert): Baylor 49, TX State 12
• Joe Goodman (@the_joe_goodman): Baylor 42, TX State 6
• Cody Orr (@cody_orr): Baylor 35, TX State 14
• Michael Nichols (@pckt_chng): Baylor 41, TX State 13
• Jenna Patteson (@jenp108): Baylor 35, TX State 17
• Noelle Kakimoto (@NKakimoto): Baylor 49, TX State 7
• Will Boles (@_willboles): Baylor 56, TX State 10
• Jed Johnston (@BearMySoul17): Baylor 42, TX State 3
• Scott Byrne (@BearNTex): Baylor 66, TX State 7
• Deonte Epps (@DEppsRightStepS): Baylor 45, TX State 21

A few fewer predictors this past week. I will note that my prediction of 31-27 was only one point further off than Branden MacKinnon, who took 30-27. With a little more offense, we may have both nearly gotten it.

For this game there is absolutely no reason not to pick Baylor to destroy Texas State in convincing fashion. SP+ has this as 45-7, which is in line with most of our predictions above. I expect that is a little low on the offensive output for both sides, as Baylor will use this opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to Blake Shapen at a continued progression in the vertical passing game before allowing a late garbage-time TD, since that’s typically how these games go. Even though it appears we could be without Taye McWilliams for this game, Texas State’s rushing defense has been pretty bad this season according to the advanced stats (.381 per play in EPA, for comparison, Baylor is -0.06, which basically means there is no reason to even try to run on us so far), and their defense on the whole is 124th in the country per SP+. I think we will come out of this weekend thinking BYU is even better than we expected (after they beat Oregon), and Baylor has answered some of the offensive questions facing it after Texas State. Hopefully.

My Prediction: Baylor 52, Texas State 13.