First Look: Texas Longhorns

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12/12/7 BAYLOR (9–2, 6–2) vs. NR/NR/NR Texas (4–7, 3–5) Dec. 5, 2015 | 11 a.m. CT Waco, Texas | McLane Stadium (45,140) TV: ESPN

Watch |  Listen | Gametracker | Notes

OPPONENT: Texas Longhorns
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. Texas
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.texassports.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 Texas Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: Texas Longhorns Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 28–7Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; Texas Tech 48, Texas 45
SB NATION BLOG: Barking Carnival and Burnt Orange Nation, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –20.5 (Open: Baylor –21)
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 11:00 a.m. CST Saturday
WEATHER FORECAST: Partly Cloudy, high of 62° (wunderground puts) game time temp at 53° AND A 3% CHANCE OF RAIN)

SBNation.com Texas Preview
baylorbears.com Preview
Bears vs. Longhorns Coverage

One Game More

As Coach Art Briles is extremely fond of saying, "The past is last." It doesn’t do to dwell on what has gone by or to speculate as to what might have been. There’s still plenty for which this team has to play. They have the Texas Longhorns coming to town on Saturday with a chance to finish second in the Big 12 and head to a Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns could possibly have a bowl berth on the line, given the fact that the NCAA is looking at inviting teams with a 5–7 record to go bowling this postseason. The Bears have Senior Day on Saturday, and Briles wants a packed McLane Stadium. Colt Barber of Bears Truth has this from Briles:

Because of that, head coach Art Briles is encouraging Baylor fans to show up with high energy to support a team that is looking for their 10th win, specifically a group of seniors who have won 49 games in their five years on campus.

"We are glad to be back home, I need a very lively and energetic stadium on Saturday at 11 a.m. to help our seniors finish out," Briles said. "My whole thing is all about our senior class, and paying those guys back for what they’ve done for this University from a local, regional, and national standpoint."

Think about this for a moment: the seniors that were redshirting in 2011 have not seen a season of fewer than eight total wins. The year before they joined the program, we celebrated six wins and bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly 20 years by rushing the field. The contributions of this group of seniors deserves to be acknowledged. Get to McLane, support the seniors, and cheer them onto a fifth win in six years over the Longhorns. Let’s do this.

Banged Up Bovines

If you caught any of the weekly teleconference yesterday, you know that the Longhorns are suffering from several injuries. According to Burnt Orange Nation, the Longhorns could be without as many as eight players due to injuries. Those that are confirmed to be out include Peter Jinkens, D’Onta Foreman, Kirk Johnson, and Patrick Vahe. Players either questionable or day-to-day are Malik Jefferson, Hassan Ridgeway, Johnathan Gray, and Jerrod Heard. Gray is day-to-day; while Heard has been cleared to practice after suffering a concussion against Texas Tech last week, Tyrone Swoopes will be making the start for the Longhorns against Baylor on Saturday.

Texas Longhorns 2015 Schedule and Results

Record: 4–7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 4.5 (0.5) | S&P+ Rk: 84
Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
5-Sep	at Notre Dame	9	3–38	L	5%	–39.6	0%
12-Sep	Rice	118	42–28	W	87%	19.1	99%
19-Sep	California	45	44–45	L	60%	–0.4	48%
26-Sep	Oklahoma State	25	27–30	L	36%	–11.8	7%
3-Oct	at TCU	19	7–50	L	2%	–56.9	0%
10-Oct	vs. Oklahoma	3	24–17	W	79%	2.6	63%
24-Oct	Kansas State	81	23–9	W	90%	19.3	99%
31-Oct	at Iowa State	72	0–24	L	7%	–26.3	0%
7-Nov	Kansas	127	59–20	W	85%	24.6	100%
14-Nov	at West Virginia	14	20–38	L	40%	–10.5	9%
26-Nov	Texas Tech	57	45–48	L	42%	–6.9	20%

Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Win Probability	Proj. W-L	Proj. Margin	Proj. Score	Cumulative Proj. Wins
5-Dec	at Baylor	8	7%	L	–25.6	20.1 - 45.7	4.07

The Longhorns’ season started off incredibly rough, getting walloped at the hands of Notre Dame on the opening weekend, then losing close games against both Cal and OSU in September. After getting crushed by TCU, they pulled off what will go down as one of the more head-scratching games of the 2015 season, handing Oklahoma its only loss of the season in a game that wasn’t even as close as its 24–17 score indicates. A win against Kansas State had media folks proclaiming that Charlie Strong’s program had turned a corner and things were looking up. But Iowa State turned the Longhorns right back around that corner again, blanking Texas 24–0 in Ames on Halloween Night. After a win against Kansas and a loss to WVU in Morgantown, the Longhorns lost to Texas Tech in what turned out to be the battle of who can give up more rushing yards (Texas Tech did. But they also won the game, so there’s that).

Texas Longhorns 2015 Individual Stats

Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.

Passing Statistics

Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Jerrod Heard	6’2, 195	FR	92	157	1214	5	5	58.6%	27	14.7%	5.7
Tyrone Swoopes	6’4, 244	JR	35	74	386	3	1	47.3%	4	5.1%	4.5

Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoopes have split time in this offense all season; the season began with the "who will be the QB" question; but the situation has evolved into somewhat of a tandem QB sort of set up where both spend time on the field. Jerrod Heard is clearly the better passer of the two, but Heard suffered a concussion against Texas Tech and will not start. Since he’s been cleared to practice this week, my guess is that even if he doesn’t start, we’ll still see him get minutes. If the Bears start fast and force the Longhorns to play from behind, we could see him forced into the game more and more.

Individual Rushing Stats

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles (Lost)
Johnathan Gray	RB	5’10, 211	SR	123	489	3	4.0	3.8	29.3%	0 (0)
Jerrod Heard	QB	6’2, 195	FR	109	727	3	6.7	5.6	53.2%	3 (2)
D’Onta Foreman	RB	6’0, 241	SO	95	681	5	7.2	8.0	46.3%	1 (1)
Tyrone Swoopes	QB	6’4, 244	JR	62	428	11	6.9	5.4	56.5%	1 (1)
Chris Warren III	RB	6’2, 232	FR	43	364	4	8.5	9.8	46.5%	0 (0)
Kirk Johnson	RB	5’11, 205	FR	9	54	0	6.0	11.8	33.3%	1 (0)
Daje Johnson	WR	5’9, 184	SR	6	28	0	4.7	2.6	66.7%	1 (1)
Trey Holtz	QB	6’0, 186	JR	2	10	0	5.0	3.0	50.0%	0 (0)
Armanti Foreman	WR	5’11, 204	SO	2	2	0	1.0	0.0	0.0%	0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Heard is the Longhorns’ leading rusher with over 700 yards. Foreman is out and Johnathan Gray is day-to-day; the Horns may have to turn to Chris Warren III for the second straight week for production out of the RB position. Warren had a spectacular game against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving Day last week, but given the state of the Texas Tech rush defense, let’s hold off on crowning him the next Ricky Williams for now. The Bears’ rush defense is sliiiiightly better.

Individual Receiving Stats

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate	Target Rate
Daje Johnson	WR	5’9, 184	SR	50	34	376	1	11.1	7.5	68.0%	22.7%
John Burt	WR	6’2, 184	FR	46	24	436	2	18.2	9.5	52.2%	20.9%
Armanti Foreman	WR	5’11, 204	SO	28	11	182	2	16.6	6.5	39.3%	12.7%
Marcus Johnson	WR	6’1, 194	SR	20	12	118	1	9.8	5.9	60.0%	9.1%
Andrew Beck	TE	6’3, 232	SO	13	6	61	0	10.2	4.7	46.2%	5.9%
Johnathan Gray	RB	5’10, 211	SR	10	6	84	0	14.0	8.4	60.0%	4.5%
Jacorey Warrick	WR	5’10, 170	JR	10	6	35	0	5.8	3.5	60.0%	4.5%
Caleb Bluiett	TE	6’4, 258	JR	9	7	110	1	15.7	12.2	77.8%	4.1%
D’Onta Foreman	RB	6’0, 241	SO	9	5	64	0	12.8	7.1	55.6%	4.1%
Lorenzo Joe	WR	6’2, 202	SO	7	4	73	1	18.3	10.4	57.1%	3.2%
Chris Warren III	RB	6’2, 232	FR	6	4	9	0	2.3	1.5	66.7%	2.7%
Ryan Newsome	WR	5’8, 166	FR	5	3	21	0	7.0	4.2	60.0%	2.3%
Alex De La Torre	TE	6’0, 243	SR	4	3	24	0	8.0	6.0	75.0%	1.8%
Jerrod Heard	QB	6’2, 195	FR	1	1	3	0	3.0	3.0	100.0%	0.5%
Kirk Johnson	RB	5’11, 205	FR	1	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.5%

LOTS of people with receptions. None with over 500 yards receiving total. This WR corps sports some talent, to be sure, the trouble is that they just don’t have an arm to get them the football. John Burt and Daje Johnson get the lion’s share of the targets. I… don’t have a whole lot else to say about it.

Individual Defensive Statistics

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Peter Jinkens	LB	6’0, 230	SR	60.5	9.1%	9.5	6.5	0	0	0	0
Malik Jefferson	LB	6’3, 232	FR	49.0	7.4%	7.0	2.5	0	3	1	1
Duke Thomas	CB	5’10, 178	SR	46.5	7.0%	3.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
Dylan Haines	S	6’1, 193	JR	42.0	6.3%	3.0	1.0	5	3	0	0
Naashon Hughes	DE	6’4, 232	SO	40.5	6.1%	7.0	4.5	0	1	1	0
Holton Hill	DB	6’2, 179	FR	39.0	5.9%	1.0	0.0	1	2	0	0
Jason Hall	S	6’2, 209	SO	36.5	5.5%	0.5	0.0	1	2	1	0
Hassan Ridgeway	DT	6’3, 314	JR	30.0	4.5%	6.5	3.5	0	0	0	2
Davante Davis	CB	6’2, 191	FR	26.5	4.0%	1.0	0.0	1	7	0	0
Poona Ford	DT	5’11, 291	SO	26.0	3.9%	6.0	2.5	0	1	0	0
Paul Boyette Jr.	DT	6’2, 303	JR	24.5	3.7%	6.0	3.0	0	2	0	0
John Bonney	CB	6’0, 188	FR	24.5	3.7%	2.0	1.0	0	1	1	0
Anthony Wheeler	LB	6’2, 209	FR	24.0	3.6%	1.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Desmond Jackson	DT	6’1, 300	SR	23.5	3.5%	2.5	1.5	0	0	0	1
Timothy Cole	LB	6’1, 235	JR	21.5	3.2%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Bryce Cottrell	DE	6’2, 253	JR	20.5	3.1%	6.5	4.0	0	1	0	0
Shiro Davis	DE	6’3, 256	SR	20.0	3.0%	5.5	2.0	0	0	2	0
Charles Omenihu	DE	6’5, 236	FR	16.0	2.4%	1.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kris Boyd	CB	6’0, 188	FR	12.5	1.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Kevin Vaccaro	S	5’8, 185	JR	12.0	1.8%	0.0	0.0	0	1	1	0
Breckyn Hager	LB	6’3, 224	FR	9.0	1.4%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
DeShon Elliott	S	6’1, 205	FR	8.5	1.3%	0.0	0.0	2	0	1	0
Edwin Freeman	LB	6’1, 236	FR	7.0	1.1%	3.0	0.0	0	0	1	0
Antwuan Davis	CB	5’11, 194	SO	7.0	1.1%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
P.J. Locke III	S	5’10, 191	FR	6.0	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	1	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

Yay defense! Their defense is supposed to be the strength of the Charlie Strong-coached team, but this D is ranked 78th in S&P+. Oh. LBs Peter Junkets and true freshman Malik Jefferson are the standouts here, but Jinkens is out for Saturday’s game and Jefferson is listed as "questionable." I’m guessing that Malik plays on Saturday, though. He will be a monster for the Longhorns for at least two more years after this one. Looking down this list you’ll see multiple familiar names if you follow recruiting at all. Despite what appears to be a very strong defense on paper, the Horns just haven’t been able to stop the Big 12 offenses.

2015 Texas Longhorns Team Stats and Rankings

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: Even though the Big 12 title and CFP belong to OU this season, we still have a shot at the Sugar Bowl with a W on Saturday. How are you feeling?
SECOND: What’s your favorite Christmas song?
THIRD: Given that there’s a 3% chance of precipitation at game time on Saturday, exactly what kind of precipitation will be torrentially falling from the sky at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday?
FOURTH: This is not a question. It’s a statement that I hate games impacted by weather. Four of them this season. FOUR. That’s the worst. Weather is the worst. I’m sick of weather. Express your agreement in gif form.
FIFTH: Uniform Prediction?