12/12/7 BAYLOR (9–2, 6–2) vs. NR/NR/NR Texas (4–7, 3–5)
Dec. 5, 2015 | 11 a.m. CT
Waco, Texas | McLane Stadium (45,140)
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OPPONENT: Texas Longhorns
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. Texas
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.texassports.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 Texas Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: Texas Longhorns Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 28–7Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; Texas Tech 48, Texas 45
SB NATION BLOG: Barking Carnival and Burnt Orange Nation, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –20.5 (Open: Baylor –21)
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 11:00 a.m. CST Saturday
WEATHER FORECAST: Partly Cloudy, high of 62° (wunderground puts) game time temp at 53° AND A 3% CHANCE OF RAIN)
SBNation.com Texas Preview
Bears vs. Longhorns Coverage
One Game More
As Coach Art Briles is extremely fond of saying, "The past is last." It doesn’t do to dwell on what has gone by or to speculate as to what might have been. There’s still plenty for which this team has to play. They have the Texas Longhorns coming to town on Saturday with a chance to finish second in the Big 12 and head to a Sugar Bowl. The Longhorns could possibly have a bowl berth on the line, given the fact that the NCAA is looking at inviting teams with a 5–7 record to go bowling this postseason. The Bears have Senior Day on Saturday, and Briles wants a packed McLane Stadium. Colt Barber of Bears Truth has this from Briles:
Because of that, head coach Art Briles is encouraging Baylor fans to show up with high energy to support a team that is looking for their 10th win, specifically a group of seniors who have won 49 games in their five years on campus.
"We are glad to be back home, I need a very lively and energetic stadium on Saturday at 11 a.m. to help our seniors finish out," Briles said. "My whole thing is all about our senior class, and paying those guys back for what they’ve done for this University from a local, regional, and national standpoint."
Think about this for a moment: the seniors that were redshirting in 2011 have not seen a season of fewer than eight total wins. The year before they joined the program, we celebrated six wins and bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly 20 years by rushing the field. The contributions of this group of seniors deserves to be acknowledged. Get to McLane, support the seniors, and cheer them onto a fifth win in six years over the Longhorns. Let’s do this.
Banged Up Bovines
If you caught any of the weekly teleconference yesterday, you know that the Longhorns are suffering from several injuries. According to Burnt Orange Nation, the Longhorns could be without as many as eight players due to injuries. Those that are confirmed to be out include Peter Jinkens, D’Onta Foreman, Kirk Johnson, and Patrick Vahe. Players either questionable or day-to-day are Malik Jefferson, Hassan Ridgeway, Johnathan Gray, and Jerrod Heard. Gray is day-to-day; while Heard has been cleared to practice after suffering a concussion against Texas Tech last week, Tyrone Swoopes will be making the start for the Longhorns against Baylor on Saturday.
Texas Longhorns 2015 Schedule and Results
|Record: 4–7 | Second-order wins (diff.): 4.5 (0.5) | S&P+ Rk: 84|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. S&P+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|5-Sep||at Notre Dame||9||3–38||L||5%||–39.6||0%|
|31-Oct||at Iowa State||72||0–24||L||7%||–26.3||0%|
|14-Nov||at West Virginia||14||20–38||L||40%||–10.5||9%|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. S&P+ Rk||Win
|5-Dec||at Baylor||8||7%||L||–25.6||20.1 - 45.7||4.07|
The Longhorns’ season started off incredibly rough, getting walloped at the hands of Notre Dame on the opening weekend, then losing close games against both Cal and OSU in September. After getting crushed by TCU, they pulled off what will go down as one of the more head-scratching games of the 2015 season, handing Oklahoma its only loss of the season in a game that wasn’t even as close as its 24–17 score indicates. A win against Kansas State had media folks proclaiming that Charlie Strong’s program had turned a corner and things were looking up. But Iowa State turned the Longhorns right back around that corner again, blanking Texas 24–0 in Ames on Halloween Night. After a win against Kansas and a loss to WVU in Morgantown, the Longhorns lost to Texas Tech in what turned out to be the battle of who can give up more rushing yards (Texas Tech did. But they also won the game, so there’s that).
Texas Longhorns 2015 Individual Stats
Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.
|Jerrod Heard||6’2, 195||FR||92||157||1214||5||5||58.6%||27||14.7%||5.7|
|Tyrone Swoopes||6’4, 244||JR||35||74||386||3||1||47.3%||4||5.1%||4.5|
Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoopes have split time in this offense all season; the season began with the "who will be the QB" question; but the situation has evolved into somewhat of a tandem QB sort of set up where both spend time on the field. Jerrod Heard is clearly the better passer of the two, but Heard suffered a concussion against Texas Tech and will not start. Since he’s been cleared to practice this week, my guess is that even if he doesn’t start, we’ll still see him get minutes. If the Bears start fast and force the Longhorns to play from behind, we could see him forced into the game more and more.
Individual Rushing Stats
|Johnathan Gray||RB||5’10, 211||SR||123||489||3||4.0||3.8||29.3%||0 (0)|
|Jerrod Heard||QB||6’2, 195||FR||109||727||3||6.7||5.6||53.2%||3 (2)|
|D’Onta Foreman||RB||6’0, 241||SO||95||681||5||7.2||8.0||46.3%||1 (1)|
|Tyrone Swoopes||QB||6’4, 244||JR||62||428||11||6.9||5.4||56.5%||1 (1)|
|Chris Warren III||RB||6’2, 232||FR||43||364||4||8.5||9.8||46.5%||0 (0)|
|Kirk Johnson||RB||5’11, 205||FR||9||54||0||6.0||11.8||33.3%||1 (0)|
|Daje Johnson||WR||5’9, 184||SR||6||28||0||4.7||2.6||66.7%||1 (1)|
|Trey Holtz||QB||6’0, 186||JR||2||10||0||5.0||3.0||50.0%||0 (0)|
|Armanti Foreman||WR||5’11, 204||SO||2||2||0||1.0||0.0||0.0%||0 (0)|
|NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.|
Heard is the Longhorns’ leading rusher with over 700 yards. Foreman is out and Johnathan Gray is day-to-day; the Horns may have to turn to Chris Warren III for the second straight week for production out of the RB position. Warren had a spectacular game against Texas Tech on Thanksgiving Day last week, but given the state of the Texas Tech rush defense, let’s hold off on crowning him the next Ricky Williams for now. The Bears’ rush defense is sliiiiightly better.
Individual Receiving Stats
|Daje Johnson||WR||5’9, 184||SR||50||34||376||1||11.1||7.5||68.0%||22.7%|
|John Burt||WR||6’2, 184||FR||46||24||436||2||18.2||9.5||52.2%||20.9%|
|Armanti Foreman||WR||5’11, 204||SO||28||11||182||2||16.6||6.5||39.3%||12.7%|
|Marcus Johnson||WR||6’1, 194||SR||20||12||118||1||9.8||5.9||60.0%||9.1%|
|Andrew Beck||TE||6’3, 232||SO||13||6||61||0||10.2||4.7||46.2%||5.9%|
|Johnathan Gray||RB||5’10, 211||SR||10||6||84||0||14.0||8.4||60.0%||4.5%|
|Jacorey Warrick||WR||5’10, 170||JR||10||6||35||0||5.8||3.5||60.0%||4.5%|
|Caleb Bluiett||TE||6’4, 258||JR||9||7||110||1||15.7||12.2||77.8%||4.1%|
|D’Onta Foreman||RB||6’0, 241||SO||9||5||64||0||12.8||7.1||55.6%||4.1%|
|Lorenzo Joe||WR||6’2, 202||SO||7||4||73||1||18.3||10.4||57.1%||3.2%|
|Chris Warren III||RB||6’2, 232||FR||6||4||9||0||2.3||1.5||66.7%||2.7%|
|Ryan Newsome||WR||5’8, 166||FR||5||3||21||0||7.0||4.2||60.0%||2.3%|
|Alex De La Torre||TE||6’0, 243||SR||4||3||24||0||8.0||6.0||75.0%||1.8%|
|Jerrod Heard||QB||6’2, 195||FR||1||1||3||0||3.0||3.0||100.0%||0.5%|
|Kirk Johnson||RB||5’11, 205||FR||1||0||0||0||0.0||0.0||0.0%||0.5%|
LOTS of people with receptions. None with over 500 yards receiving total. This WR corps sports some talent, to be sure, the trouble is that they just don’t have an arm to get them the football. John Burt and Daje Johnson get the lion’s share of the targets. I… don’t have a whole lot else to say about it.
Individual Defensive Statistics
|Name||Pos||Ht, Wt||Year||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Peter Jinkens||LB||6’0, 230||SR||60.5||9.1%||9.5||6.5||0||0||0||0|
|Malik Jefferson||LB||6’3, 232||FR||49.0||7.4%||7.0||2.5||0||3||1||1|
|Duke Thomas||CB||5’10, 178||SR||46.5||7.0%||3.0||0.0||0||4||0||0|
|Dylan Haines||S||6’1, 193||JR||42.0||6.3%||3.0||1.0||5||3||0||0|
|Naashon Hughes||DE||6’4, 232||SO||40.5||6.1%||7.0||4.5||0||1||1||0|
|Holton Hill||DB||6’2, 179||FR||39.0||5.9%||1.0||0.0||1||2||0||0|
|Jason Hall||S||6’2, 209||SO||36.5||5.5%||0.5||0.0||1||2||1||0|
|Hassan Ridgeway||DT||6’3, 314||JR||30.0||4.5%||6.5||3.5||0||0||0||2|
|Davante Davis||CB||6’2, 191||FR||26.5||4.0%||1.0||0.0||1||7||0||0|
|Poona Ford||DT||5’11, 291||SO||26.0||3.9%||6.0||2.5||0||1||0||0|
|Paul Boyette Jr.||DT||6’2, 303||JR||24.5||3.7%||6.0||3.0||0||2||0||0|
|John Bonney||CB||6’0, 188||FR||24.5||3.7%||2.0||1.0||0||1||1||0|
|Anthony Wheeler||LB||6’2, 209||FR||24.0||3.6%||1.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Desmond Jackson||DT||6’1, 300||SR||23.5||3.5%||2.5||1.5||0||0||0||1|
|Timothy Cole||LB||6’1, 235||JR||21.5||3.2%||1.0||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Bryce Cottrell||DE||6’2, 253||JR||20.5||3.1%||6.5||4.0||0||1||0||0|
|Shiro Davis||DE||6’3, 256||SR||20.0||3.0%||5.5||2.0||0||0||2||0|
|Charles Omenihu||DE||6’5, 236||FR||16.0||2.4%||1.0||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Kris Boyd||CB||6’0, 188||FR||12.5||1.9%||0.0||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Kevin Vaccaro||S||5’8, 185||JR||12.0||1.8%||0.0||0.0||0||1||1||0|
|Breckyn Hager||LB||6’3, 224||FR||9.0||1.4%||0.0||0.0||1||0||0||0|
|DeShon Elliott||S||6’1, 205||FR||8.5||1.3%||0.0||0.0||2||0||1||0|
|Edwin Freeman||LB||6’1, 236||FR||7.0||1.1%||3.0||0.0||0||0||1||0|
|Antwuan Davis||CB||5’11, 194||SO||7.0||1.1%||0.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|P.J. Locke III||S||5’10, 191||FR||6.0||0.9%||0.0||0.0||0||1||0||0|
|Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.|
Yay defense! Their defense is supposed to be the strength of the Charlie Strong-coached team, but this D is ranked 78th in S&P+. Oh. LBs Peter Junkets and true freshman Malik Jefferson are the standouts here, but Jinkens is out for Saturday’s game and Jefferson is listed as "questionable." I’m guessing that Malik plays on Saturday, though. He will be a monster for the Longhorns for at least two more years after this one. Looking down this list you’ll see multiple familiar names if you follow recruiting at all. Despite what appears to be a very strong defense on paper, the Horns just haven’t been able to stop the Big 12 offenses.
2015 Texas Longhorns Team Stats and Rankings
|3rd Down Conv. %||93||10||0.365||Bowling Green||0.519||Texas Tech||0.519|
|3rd Down Defense||112||8||0.460||Clemson||0.240||TCU||0.280|
|4th Down Conv. %||97||8||0.429||Navy||0.913||Oklahoma St.||0.889|
|4th Down Defense||101||8||0.583||Penn St.||0.167||Baylor||0.409|
|Blocked Kicks Allowed||1||1||0||27 teams tied||0||Baylor
|Blocked Punts Allowed||1||1||0||63 teams tied||0||7 teams tied||0|
|Completion Percentage||92||8||0.550||Western Ky.||0.728||Oklahoma||0.672|
|Defensive TDs||20||2||3||Arkansas St.
|Fewest Penalties||53||4||70||Navy||35||Iowa St.
|Fewest Penalties/Game||77||6||6.36||Georgia Tech||3.17||Iowa St.||4.92|
|Fewest Penalty Yards||68||4||649||Navy||299||Kansas St.||445|
|Fewest Penalty YPG||82||5||59.00||Navy||27.18||Kansas St.||40.45|
|First Downs Defense||107||8||277||Clemson||162||West Virginia||219|
|First Downs Offense||123||10||187||Cincinnati||355||Texas Tech||346|
|Fumbles Lost||58||5||8||South Carolina
|Fumbles Recovered||23||4||10||Virginia Tech||15||Baylor
|Kickoff Return Defense||122||10||26.33||Memphis||14.90||Kansas St.||17.21|
|Kickoff Returns||105||9||19.02||Tennessee||33.41||West Virginia||25.62|
|Passes Had Intercepted||12||1||6||Navy||2||Texas||6|
|Passes Intercepted||57||6||11||Arkansas St.||24||West Virginia||21|
|Passing Offense||117||10||145.5||Washington St.||397.0||Texas Tech||389.7|
|Passing Yards Allowed||90||6||247.0||Georgia||146.1||Oklahoma||201.5|
|Passing Yards/Cplt||55||8||12.60||Army West Point||23.00||Baylor||17.33|
|Punt Return Defense||18||4||3.85||Oklahoma||0.70||Oklahoma||0.70|
|Punt Returns||23||2||12.59||Texas A&M||19.68||Iowa St.||17.41|
|Red Zone Defense||120||10||0.917||Appalachian St.||0.583||TCU||0.775|
|Red Zone Offense||42||6||0.871||Washington St.||0.943||Kansas St.||0.939|
|Rushing Offense||17||4||231.1||Ga. Southern||375.6||Baylor||291.5|
|Sacks Allowed||108||7||2.82||Air Force||0.17||Baylor||1.27|
|Tackles for Loss Allowed||109||10||7.18||Georgia||3.42||Texas Tech||4.83|
|Team Passing Efficiency||95||8||119.39||Baylor||183.96||Baylor||183.96|
|Team Pass Eff. Defense||101||7||141.65||Michigan||94.98||Oklahoma||108.03|
|Team Sacks||4||1||3.27||Arizona St.
|Team Tackles for Loss||39||5||6.9||Boston College||9.6||Baylor||8.2|
|Time of Possession||114||9||27:04||Stanford||35:21||Kansas St.||32:41|
|Total Defense||107||7||450.2||Boston College||254.4||Oklahoma||350.7|
|Turnover Margin||24||4||0.64||San Diego St.||1.67||Oklahoma St.||1.08|
|Turnovers Gained||43||6||21||Arkansas St.
San Diego St.
|Turnovers Lost||19||1||14||Navy||7||Oklahoma St.
It’s Question Time!
FIRST: Even though the Big 12 title and CFP belong to OU this season, we still have a shot at the Sugar Bowl with a W on Saturday. How are you feeling?
SECOND: What’s your favorite Christmas song?
THIRD: Given that there’s a 3% chance of precipitation at game time on Saturday, exactly what kind of precipitation will be torrentially falling from the sky at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday?
FOURTH: This is not a question. It’s a statement that I hate games impacted by weather. Four of them this season. FOUR. That’s the worst. Weather is the worst. I’m sick of weather. Express your agreement in gif form.
FIFTH: Uniform Prediction?