9/8/9 BAYLOR (9-1, 6-1) vs. NR/NR/NR TCU (4-7, 2-6)
Nov. 30, 2013 | 2:30 p.m. CT
Fort Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000)
|Listen | Gametracker | Notes | Tickets | SportStream | Gameday Central|
OPPONENT: TCU Horned Frogs
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: GoFrogs.cstv | TCU Game Preview
2013 ROSTER, DEPTH CHART (opens as .pdf, page 17)
LAST MEETING: 49-21 TCU win | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME (for TCU): 33-31 loss to Kansas State
SB NATION BLOG: Frogs O' War
SPREAD: Baylor -12.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2
WEATHER FORECAST: High of 61, overcast
SB NATION TCU PREVIEW: Survive, Then Thrive
BAYLORBEARS.COM PREVIEW: Last Road Game in Big 12 Play
Something we need to talk about this week is the fact that this will, in all likelihood, be TCU's Super Bowl. They've had an extra week to prepare before we came into town, and we're still the #9 team in the country. Their team/fanbase doesn't like us in the best of times, and these are hardly that. They're not going to a bowl game this year. It's Senior Day. They're going to be charged up. The weather won't be a factor, and I anticipate a significantly larger crowd of Baylor fans in Fort Worth than was in Stillwater, but it's still something to think about.
Oh, and if you're expecting a "Why I Hate TCU/Their Fans/Reptiles in General/People from Fort Worth/Whatever", you're going to be disappointed.
Horned Frogs Football Schedule
|LSU||Sat 08/31||L 27 - 37|
|SE Louisiana||Sat 09/07||W 38 - 17|
|@ Texas Tech||Thu 09/12||L 10 - 20|
|SMU||Sat 09/28||W 48 - 17|
|@ Oklahoma||Sat 10/05||L 17 - 20|
|Kansas||Sat 10/12||W 27 - 17|
|@ Oklahoma St.||Sat 10/19||L 10 - 24|
|Texas||Sat 10/26||L 7 - 30|
|West Virginia||Sat 11/02||L 27 - 30|
|@ Iowa St.||Sat 11/09||W 21 - 17|
|@ Kansas St.||Sat 11/16||L 31 - 33|
|Baylor||Sat 11/30||2:30 PM CST|
To say this has been a disappointing season for the Horned Frogs would be an understatement. Though things started relatively well with a loss to LSU in the first game, the Frogs lost starting QB Casey Pachall in the second game of the year to a broken arm. Backup Trevone Boykin -- the same guy who torched us last year -- started the next 6 games during which TCU never managed to string two wins together in a row. They're now 4-7 overall and 2-6 in conference play in their second year in the Big 12, and after losing to Kansas State 10 days ago, they will not play for a bowl. Their game with us is the final one of the 2013 season that I'm sure they just want to forget.
Before they do that, however, they'll get a chance to play spoiler against a Baylor team still looking to reach unprecedented heights for our program. They'll do so with one of the two or three best defenses in the conference by almost any measure and an offense that has been inconsistent, at best. It seems Casey Pachall will get his third-straight start at QB for the Frogs with Boykin probably playing some WR alongside Brandon Carter, a name Baylor fans should know well, LaDarius Brown, and Ty Slanina. B.J. Catalon, once a Baylor RB commit, should get the start at the tailback spot. Since he's been reportedly kicked off the team, we won't see Waymon James.
Something happened with the table this week. I don't care enough to try to fix it.
Without getting too much into the stats for this game before tomorrow's stats preview, there are a few areas where the Horned Frogs excel, nearly all of which relate to the defense. First, they have the best run defense in the Big 12 Conference at just 128 rushing yards per game allowed. If Lache Seastrunk misses another game (assuming Glasco Martin does), that could be a problem for us. Part of that comes from being #5 in the country as far as team tackles for loss. They trail only our own Baylor Bears in that stat for the conference. Because they have one of the two best CBs in the conference, Jason Verrett, they are #2 behind Oklahoma State in interceptions on the season with 18.
Besides all that, the story of this year's TCU team has been one of futility on offense. According to the latest S&P+ rankings, TCU comes in at exactly 100th on that side of the ball. That's not good. Even following our dismal showing in Stillwater, we're #2, a step behind Oklahoma State. Somewhat shockingly, TCU is significantly worse running the ball (111th) than passing it (75th), though I suspect that is largely a result of teams loading the box against Boykin before Pachall returned from injury. They've looked better on that side to my eyes but still not great.
On defense, Baylor's loss to OSU dropped the Bears to #12 in defensive S&P+, five spots ahead of TCU at #17. Though relatively balanced run vs. pass, they are excellent on standard downs. A strong rushing defense probably plays a big role in that.
- First -- This week marks the first time this season that Baylor will play two road games in a row. I'm going on record as predicting that we'll see the chrome helmets make their daytime and road debut this week and that we'll throw down the much-anticipated Stormtrooper+ (chrome/white/white). Thoughts?
- Second -- It really sounds like Lache will play this week but Glasco won't. Assuming only one of the two can play, which would you rather have against TCU's defense?
- Third -- What scares you most about this game? Is it the rebound factor from OSU, TCU's defense, or something else?
- Fourth -- It seems strange to me that Bryce Petty has suddenly lost all chance to win the Heisman despite retaining an outstanding statistical year. He still has only one interception this season against 26 passing touchdowns. Do you think there is anything he could do to get back into it?
- Fifth -- What is your favorite Thanksgiving food?
I'm going to do an updated Depth Chart for this game tonight, probably. It should have Aiavion Edwards in at MLB for Bryce Hager and everyone else on defense the same.