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Absolute Stats
Oklahoma St. Cowboys
| Passing | Rushing | Total Offense | First Downs | Penalties | Turnovers | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Plays | Yds | Avg | Pass | Rush | Pen | Tot | No. | Yds | Fum | Int | Tot |
| Offense | 11 | 23.3 | 37.1 | 62.7 | 332.6 | 2.5 | 40.1 | 215.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 77.2 | 547.9 | 7.1 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 1.4 | 26.0 | 6.5 | 61.8 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Defense | 11 | 26.1 | 42.8 | 60.9 | 284.7 | 1.5 | 36.1 | 124.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 78.9 | 409.1 | 5.2 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 23.2 | 6.1 | 44.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Difference | -2.8 | -5.7 | +1.8 | +47.9 | +1.0 | +4.0 | +90.9 | +2.0 | +1.4 | -1.7 | +138.8 | +1.9 | -0.1 | +3.5 | -0.6 | +2.8 | +0.4 | +17.3 | -0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | |
Baylor Bears
| Passing | Rushing | Total Offense | First Downs | Penalties | Turnovers | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Split | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Plays | Yds | Avg | Pass | Rush | Pen | Tot | No. | Yds | Fum | Int | Tot |
| Offense | 11 | 23.7 | 38.5 | 61.7 | 358.5 | 2.8 | 43.2 | 217.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 81.6 | 575.5 | 7.0 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 1.6 | 28.3 | 7.0 | 63.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Defense | 11 | 27.3 | 42.2 | 64.7 | 321.4 | 2.8 | 40.5 | 188.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 82.7 | 509.7 | 6.2 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 1.7 | 26.8 | 5.9 | 48.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Difference | -3.6 | -3.7 | -3.0 | +37.1 | 0.0 | +2.7 | +28.6 | +0.4 | +0.3 | -1.1 | +65.8 | +0.8 | -0.3 | +2.0 | -0.1 | +1.5 | +1.1 | +14.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.4 | |
Advanced Stats
| OVERALL | When Baylor Has the Ball ... |
When Oklahoma St. Has the Ball ... |
||||
| Category | Baylor (6-5) |
Okla St. (8-3) |
Baylor Off |
Okla St. Def |
Baylor Def |
Okla St. Off |
| 2012 F/+ Rk | 45 (-4) |
10 | 2 (+2) | 29 | 104 (+2) |
8 |
| 2012 F/+ Special Teams |
100 (-22) |
17 | ||||
| 2012 FEI Rk | 23 (+8) |
12 | 1 (+0) | 30 | 107 (+5) | 3 |
| 2012 S&P+ Rk | 39 (+0) | 23 | 15 (-1) | 28 | 87 (+3) | 20 |
| 2012 FPA | 54 | 81 | ||||
| 2012 FD Rk | 1 (+0) | 46 | 112 (-6) | 13 | ||
| 2012 AY Rk | 3 (+0) | 54 | 118 (-5) | 14 | ||
| 2012 Ex Rk | 7 (+1) | 53 | 116 (-7) | 10 | ||
| 2012 Me Rk | 9 (+2) | 91 | 119 (-2) | 71 | ||
| 2012 Va Rk | 3 (+0) | 51 | 109 (-4) | 12 | ||
| 2012 Rushing S&P+ Rk | 10 (-2) | 16 | 81 (+0) | 17 | ||
| 2012 Passing S&P+ Rk | 15 (+4) | 33 | 91 (+0) | 19 | ||
| 2012 Std. Downs S&P+ Rk | 9 (-2) | 35 | 76 (-5) | 12 | ||
| Run-Pass Ratio (Std. Downs) |
||||||
| 2012 Pass. Downs S&P+ Rk | 9 (+0) | 16 | 94 (+0) | 38 | ||
| Run-Pass Ratio (Std. Downs) |
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After four straight weeks (I think) of defensive improvement in both adjusted (S&P+) and unadjusted statistics (FEI), Baylor's defense took a relative step back this week against Texas Tech. From having watched the game several times and having looked at the statistics, it seems obvious that the only reason we limited the Tech offense as much as we did was turnovers. It took four them to get to overtime and seems reasonable to say that without them, Baylor would have lost. Still, the adjusted stats show a defense that has come a long way from the WVU game and performed admirably given the circumstances with which it was presented.
This week, it's important to realize that Baylor faces its best opponent since Kansas State two games ago, and a team that is favored to beat our Bears for a reason. Oklahoma State is at worst average on defense and good to quite good on offense. They've taken a step back in both respects from last year, true, but their record doesn't appear to be a fluke. I'm particularly worried about their special teams ranking considering ours is ... such a mess. The only reason their FPA, a measure of Field Position Advantage, isn't similarly high is turnovers; their QBs have given the ball away a few too many times to support a high ranking there.
One aspect of Oklahoma State's team on both sides of the ball that interests me is their offensive disposition away from, and their defensive weakness against, methodical drives. It reminds me somewhat of what we faced against Kansas State, who had similar rankings in both areas. If we can do what we did then and limit the running game, we may find more success than we have any right to expect. Hopefully, our defense builds on its last home performance against the Wildcats and has another good day. Our resurgent running game with Glasco Martin and Lache Seastrunk gives me hope for sustained drives against Oklahoma State's defense that both grind them down and give our own unit a chance to rest. We are, after all, the most efficient offense in the country by FEI.
I have little doubt that our offense, as good as it is, will be able to move the ball on Oklahoma State. Limit turnovers and we should score enough points to win. The key will be, as it almost always is, how many points we give up. Oklahoma State has a formidable offense of their own to deal with and at least two quarterbacks to keep an eye on in Clint Chelf, the putative starter, and J.W. Walsh, his relief. Their key attribute is balance, and their only real weakness seems to be overt passing downs. Stop their running game and make third downs difficult for Chelf and we might put something together. Let them gash us on first and second and our chances fly out the window.
Make no mistake, Bear fans, Saturday's game will be a tough one to win. We haven't beaten Oklahoma State in quite a while and rarely play well against them. I am hopeful that our positive momentum carries us into a strong home performance, but it won't be easy by any stretch. The latest O/U I've seen on this game is 86. I think we'll beat that by a decent bit.