MATCHUP: Baylor Bears (3-3, 1-2) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (5-2, 2-2)
LOCATION: Waco, Texas
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Kansas Jayhawks 2022
OURDAILYPODCAST: Our Own Worst Enemy (WVU Review/KU Preview)
OTHER PODCASTS: Please Bear With Me | Bear Den | Locked on Baylor | Between Two Bears | BearsIllustrated | SicEm365
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Rock Chalk Talk
ODB QUICK HITTER: KU.
ODB QUICK LOOK: KU.
SPREAD: Baylor -10 (opened at Baylor -10 on Sunday), O/U 58
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2, 11:00 AM CT
UNIFORM: SAILOR PICKLE IS HERE!!!

ODB STAFF PREDICTIONS:

Here’s this week’s predictions.

• Matt Wilson (@mattisbear): Baylor 42, KU 41.
• Peter Pope (@pbpope): Baylor 38, KU 33.
• David Fankhauser (@dfank_bu): Baylor 42, KU 38.
• Joe Goodman (@the_joe_goodman): Baylor 52, KU 28.
• Branden MacKinnon (@Branden_MacK): KU 42, Baylor 35.
• Michael Nichols (@pckt_chng): Baylor 41, KU 38.
• Jenna Patteson (@jenp108): Baylor 49, KU 24.
• Noelle Kakimoto (@NKakimoto): Baylor 49, KU 42.
• Will Boles (@_willboles): Baylor 44, KU 28.
• Jed Johnston (@BearMySoul17): Baylor 42, KU 31.
• Scott Byrne (@BearNTex): Baylor 45, KU 21.
• Fielding Montgomery (@FieldinOfDreams): Baylor 45, KU 38.
• Deonte Epps (@DEppsRightStepS): Baylor 50, KU 49.

Note: there are three people (Amy, Evan, and Etta) that would normally be on here that aren’t this week, but it’s not their fault. I waited too long to ask them. We’ll bring them back in next week, if they’re willing. Everyone else that isn’t here had their chance to respond and just didn’t do it.

There are some interesting picks here. Branden did me a solid and took “everyone picks Baylor, then we lose” off the table, which I respect. And it looks like expectations for our defense have come down somewhat since there are several 40s in here for KU. Still, all but one took Baylor once again, which gives me pause. Add to that the fact that I’ve taken some heat for Baylor-friendly prognostications that turn out wrong (sometimes immediately so), I’m just doing the dang thing.

I’m picking Baylor to lose to Kansas on Homecoming.

Considering how much crap I’ve given Texas over the years for losing to Kansas in football (here’s the current Winsipedia page for that series, hilarious!)...

...this would really suck for me. Like really suck for me. Plus, it would suck for us, since we’d be 3-4 (1-3) in a season where we started in the top 10 preseason. We will shame the Sailor Bear helmets.

The issue I have is that Kansas’s offense is really good, particularly through the air. Even with Jalon Daniels out, they have continued to throw the ball well with Jason Bean. There is every reason to believe that with our inability to rush the QB or cover WRs, they will do so again on us. The top-left of these charts against the bottom-right is going to be a problem:

Now, I know what you’re thinking—so will the top-right against the bottom-left, particularly with Blake Shapen back and the offense trending upward over the last few games. I agree with you and expect that we will continue to see improvement in that area. Moreover, with Sqwirl Williams and Taye McWilliams out for this game, we’ll probably devote a lot of effort to it. If you have a fantasy CFB team with Shapen or a Baylor WR/TE on it, I’d start whoever you have (and shoot me an invite for next season!).

What about this, too, huh? You might say. KU’s defense is really, really bad. Richard Reese could have a big day, too. They all might!

The problem is that we haven’t been losing games because we are less talented, or we’ve just gotten outplayed by better teams. That may be true to an extent, particularly with OSU, but in each of the last two games we had better than 50% win expectancy post-game and lost. What does that mean? We’re beating ourselves through penalties, special teams, turnovers, and other mental mistakes or effort plays like tackling. The stark reality is that we appear to be a team without much solid on-the-field leadership, particularly on defense. And that isn’t something that I feel good predicting is suddenly going to get a lot better.

As a result, even though I do think Baylor is going to have a good day offensively against Kansas, I’m predicting that we will lose. Lance Leipold’s offense will be too much for us to handle, and we will lose a relative shootout (PICK THE OVER) on Homecoming to Kansas. I can hear the slander coming already.

My prediction: KU 38, Baylor 35.