MATCHUP: Baylor Bears (5-1, 3-1) vs. #19 BYU Cougars (5-1, ∞)
LOCATION: Waco, Texas
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. BYU Cougars 2021
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Vanquish The Foe (VTF)
BYU DEPTH CHART/INJURY UPDATE: From VTF
COLLEGEFOOTBALLDATA.COM TEAM PAGES: Baylor | BYU
WEEKLY PRESS CONFERENCE: BYU
GAME NOTES (INCLUDING DEPTH CHART): Here.
BAYLORBEARS.COM PREVIEW: Here.
SPREAD: Baylor -6.5, O/U 50.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 2:30 p.m. Saturday
UNIFORM: Sailor Bear is Back! And there’s new gear!
You can never have too much Sailor Bear gear from our College Vault! ⛵️— Baylor Athletics (@BaylorAthletics) October 13, 2021
>> https://t.co/OweHN80D6V#SicEm | #BaylorHomecoming pic.twitter.com/GiOtMl6aBm
WEATHER (IN WACO): From Wunderground—Absolutely gorgeous for the first time this year at home. High of 73 degrees on Saturday with a game-time temperature of about 70, low of 45 that night, light winds from the NNE. Almost no chance of rain or significant cloud cover. Weather cannot and should not be a reason not to attend this game if you have the chance.
If you are planning on going to the parade in the morning, it could be pretty chilly at around 50 degrees at 8 AM, warming to 61 by 10 AM. Take a jacket for that part, for sure.
How Did We Get Here?
Coming off a huge win over WVU last week, Baylor is now 5-1 on the season and 3-1 in Big 12 play. Coming off their loss to Boise State, BYU is now also 5-1 on the season and not in a conference yet so whatever. They will be soon! The schedules:
|1||4-Sep-21||7:00 PM||Sat||Baylor||Texas State||Sun Belt||29||20||1||0||W 1|
|2||11-Sep-21||7:00 PM||Sat||Baylor||Texas Southern||Non-Major||66||7||2||0||W 2|
|3||18-Sep-21||3:30 PM||Sat||Baylor||Kansas||Big 12||45||7||3||0||W 3|
|4||25-Sep-21||3:30 PM||Sat||Baylor||(14) Iowa State||Big 12||31||29||4||0||W 4|
|5||2-Oct-21||7:00 PM||Sat||(21) Baylor||(19) Oklahoma State||Big 12||14||24||4||1||L 1|
|6||9-Oct-21||12:00 PM||Sat||Baylor||West Virginia||Big 12||45||20||5||1||W 1|
|1||4-Sep-21||10:30 PM||Sat||BYU||Arizona||Pac-12||24||16||1||0||W 1|
|2||11-Sep-21||10:15 PM||Sat||BYU||(21) Utah||Pac-12||26||17||2||0||W 2|
|3||18-Sep-21||10:15 PM||Sat||(23) BYU||(19) Arizona State||Pac-12||27||17||3||0||W 3|
|4||25-Sep-21||10:15 PM||Sat||(15) BYU||South Florida||American||35||27||4||0||W 4|
|5||1-Oct-21||9:00 PM||Fri||(13) BYU||Utah State||MWC||34||20||5||0||W 5|
|6||9-Oct-21||3:30 PM||Sat||(10) BYU||Boise State||MWC||17||26||5||1||L 1|
DID YOU KNOW: Unless UVA (currently 4-2) goes nuts in the ACC, we are the most likely team on BYU’s remaining schedule to finish the season ranked?
Advanced Stats Overview:
Baylor vs. BYU (F+)
You can be forgiven if you look at this and think “that doesn’t look like a 6.5-point spread sort of game to me” because honestly, I agree with you. SP+, which focuses on play-by-play data, thinks this game is a much less even matchup than FEI, which focuses on possessions, in that FEI thinks BYU is a pretty good team. I tend to agree with FEI, partly because it likes our offense more and our defense less than SP+ does, and I agree with both of those things, too. That, of course, does not take into consideration injuries or similar information specific to this game (except to the extent they affected other games) whereas Vegas does. Let’s look deeper at the FEI matchup since we have that info available:
Baylor vs. BYU (FEI)
As I said above, if you believe in FEI, you believe this game should be pretty close unless something it doesn’t consider comes into play. FEI likes their offense over ours, but our defense over theirs. Overall we have a slightly better Net Drive Efficiency, Net Points per Drive, Net Available Yards, and Net Points per Play, but all of that is relatively close. Nothing blows BYU out of the water here, nor did I expect it to. BYU may have been banged up last week going into the Boise State game, but from VTF’s injury report linked above, they’re getting healthier, and we should expect them to play more in line with their better games rather than their worst. And that includes not expecting them to have the kind of horrible turnover luck they had against Boise, too. I think this one is going to be close.
One edge that Baylor might have is knowledge of their players and system from having stolen OC Jeff Grimes, OL coach Eric Mateos, and offensive grad assistant-turned-offensive QC coach Matt Mitchell from the Cougars this offseason. It’s impossible to quantify what that edge might look like, but it’s something worth noting.
What Others are Saying:
A sampling of tweets/links, a light soaking, if you will.
WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 13, 2021
Mich St 29, Indiana 22
Texas 29, OSU 26
Cincy 35, UCF 22
YALE 32, UCONN 23
Baylor 30, BYU 23
UGA 35, UK 15
Pitt 32, VT 24
Iowa 28, Purdue 17
Bama 32, Miss St 22
BC 29, NC St 26
Tenn 33, Ole Miss 29 (needs 40 more pts)
OU 37, TCU 27
Ariz St 27, Utah 25 pic.twitter.com/cOhhyI6VAC
How good is #Baylor’s next opponent #BYU statistically? How well do they make or allow third down conversions? How dominant has their offense been per-drive? Where might be areas to attack? We dive into the numbers!https://t.co/o60umbIb8v— Sam Bradshaw (@Baylor_S11) October 13, 2021
As of now, only two games make up the complete history of the Baylor-BYU series. But this weekend, we'll get a glimpse into what is sure to be a great rivalry as the Cougars join the Big 12. #SicEm | #BaylorHomecominghttps://t.co/kHaW1Ppv1r— BaylorProud (@BaylorProud) October 13, 2021
Injured #BYU players are beginning to return to practice in preparation for this week’s game against Baylor.#BYUFootball @kslsports https://t.co/l63F6NZ8Xq— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 13, 2021
No. 19 BYU is hoping to force some turnovers at Baylor, a week after coughing up four turnovers while failing to get a single takeaway in the loss to Boise State. https://t.co/eIRyuVn4Ep— The Salt Lake Tribune (@sltrib) October 13, 2021
Know the Foe: Previewing BYU with Jake Welch (@BYUAllBlue) of @247Sports. #SicEm #BUncommon #Baylor #RVO #BYU #Big12FB @TimWatkins04 @BaylorBears247 @PleaseBearW_Me @bhorn8956 @mattmosley— Garrett Ross (@_GarrettRoss) October 13, 2021
(VIP) https://t.co/rOVhCJ6Hce via @247sports
PODCAST ALERT!!!!— BearsIllustrated (@BaylorBears247) October 13, 2021
Travis with @PleaseBearW_Me is back this week to recap the WVU win and get you ready for BYU with the great Bryce Petty (@b_petty14)https://t.co/CAV3P5OlKz #SicEm #Baylor #SicBYU