7/7/10 BAYLOR (9–1, 6–1) at 15/16/18 TCU (9–2, 6–2)
Nov. 27, 2015 | 6:30 p.m. CT
Fort Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000)
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OPPONENT: TCU Horned Frogs
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. TCU
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.gofrogs.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 TCU Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: TCU Horned Frogs Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 61–58 Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; OU 30, TCU 29
SB NATION BLOG: Frogs O’ War, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –1.5 (Open: PK)
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. CST Friday
WEATHER FORECAST: Cold, wet, & windy, high of 60° (wunderground puts) game time temp at 47°)
SBNation.com TCU Preview
Bears vs. Frogs Coverage
You’ve GOT to be Kidding Me
There’s no question about it, folks. This game is going to be cold. It’s going to be wet. And it will be windy. This will make the third game this season that Baylor has played in that will have the potential for significant downpour before and during the game. The others were reasonably warm, but this one looks to be suuuuuper chilly with winds blowing hard from the north, too. We can’t have nice things.
One significant difference between those two games played during the rain in McLane and this game: Amon G. Carter Stadium is a grass field. How will that turf hold up to a forecast that has a high percentage of rain chance for both Thursday AND Friday? This could be a good old fashioned slop fest of a game. I’ve heard from some folks that the field drains well, so there’s that at least. I’m fascinated by how the team prepares for that. Do they over-water a grass field for practice? Just roll with it and let the chips fall? I’d love to hear insight if anyone has it.
With all apologies to Jason Kirk, this is a rivalry game and we happily embrace it as such. It’s certainly a rivalry that has been ratcheted up a notch or twelve given the outcome of last year’s matchup and the ensuring College Football Playoff arms race and eventual disappointment for both teams. It’s almost certain that the chippiness may be at an all-time high for this week’s game, tempered only slightly by the losses suffered by both teams, both on the field and in the injury department. But, that being said, I’d like to reproduce for you what Mark said about this rivalry in last year’s First Look for this game, because it bears repeating, and our stance at ODB has not changed:
I’m not going to sugarcoat it: when Baylor and TCU play, it represents a meeting of two fanbases with a lot of history, acrimony, and, if we’re being honest, similarity between them. That makes almost any discussion about a game like this a breeding ground for name-calling, trolling, and the like. You’ll see a lot of Baylor fans talking crap about TCU in other places and vice versa, a lot of people talking about how much they don’t like the other side or what they wish would happen to that guy they met once that was a total douchebag and definitely represents every single Bear/Horned Frog (depending on your alignment) in existence.
I can’t tell you not to hate the Horned Frogs. Horned Frogs, I can’t tell you not to hate the Bears. Part of being a fan is having strong feelings with almost no justification, and that’s fine. I can’t change the way you feel, nor do I want to detract from the overall atmosphere of the game itself, which should be amazing. What I can tell you is that if you come here as a troll, you will be banned as a troll. The same goes if you leave here as one to head somewhere else. You may think that’s just a natural part of online interaction, but I don’t care. All are welcome here as long as they are civil, and that rule applies no matter the color of the jersey you root for on
Good-natured and humorous takes are fully welcome. Vitriol and outright churlishness are not.
TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Schedule
|Record: 9–2 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.7 (–0.3) | S&P+ Rk: 18|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. S&P+ Rk||Score||W-L||Percentile
|12-Sep||Stephen F. Austin||N/A||70–7||W||95%||56.6||100%|
|26-Sep||at Texas Tech||53||55–52||W||59%||4.5||71%|
|10-Oct||at Kansas State||77||52–45||W||66%||11.5||92%|
|17-Oct||at Iowa State||70||45–21||W||83%||20.4||99%|
|7-Nov||at Oklahoma State||19||29–49||L||14%||–22.0||0%|
|Date||Opponent||Opp. S&P+ Rk||Win
|27-Nov||Baylor||6||42%||L||–3.3||34.7 - 38.0||9.42|
Like the individual stats below, I’ve decided to pull the schedule information from the Advanced Stats Profile page because it has really nifty things that I don’t fully understand even though I’ve read every explanation multiple times. With Saturday’s loss, TCU effectively eliminated any hopes they had at a berth in the College Football Playoff and cannot with the Big 12 this season. While going for 2 on the road in a hostile environment with the injuries that team had is certainly understandable, Patterson’s postgame justification for his decision there is not… Unless you’re a TCU fan, in which case you’ve adopted it wholly and cannot fathom why people don’t understand it. Probably.
TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Individual Stats
Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.
|Trevone Boykin||6’2, 205||SR||239||363||3427||29||9||65.8%||10||2.7%||9.1|
|Bram Kohlhausen||6’2, 203||SR||27||43||369||3||1||62.8%||1||2.3%||8.3|
|Foster Sawyer||6’5, 228||FR||10||26||155||2||3||38.5%||3||10.3%||5.0|
Of course, the real question from this bunch is the status of Trevone Boykin. Apparently he’s practicing, but not 100%. If he’s actually participating in full pads workouts, then I’ll expect him to go on Friday no matter what percentage he is. Bram Kohlhausen (CABBAGEBELUGA) was solid in the second half of the game against OU, though not spectacular. Foster Sawyer, who started the game for the Frogs, threw three interceptions. He’s also 1/2 to 2/3 of a complete law firm, all by himself.
Perhaps as important or nearly as important as the Boykin question is the news that TCU’s center, Joey Hunt, will not play on Friday. He’s one of the anchors of their offensive line, and would have been tasked with stopping Andrew Billings all game long, who was a
literal figurative bear on Saturday night against Oklahoma State.
Individual Rushing Stats
|Aaron Green||TB||5’11, 205||SR||204||1100||10||5.4||5.0||41.7%||2 (1)|
|Trevone Boykin||QB||6’2, 205||SR||99||640||8||6.5||5.4||50.5%||2 (0)|
|Trevorris Johnson||TB||5’11, 221||SO||42||262||0||6.2||4.0||50.0%||1 (1)|
|Kyle Hicks||TB||5’10, 200||SO||39||197||3||5.1||5.2||33.3%||0 (0)|
|Colten Christensen||TB||5’9, 185||SR||16||66||1||4.1||1.1||37.5%||0 (0)|
|KaVontae Turpin||WR||5’9, 152||FR||13||91||0||7.0||4.2||61.5%||3 (1)|
|Shaun Nixon||TB||5’10, 196||FR||13||61||0||4.7||3.5||46.2%||0 (0)|
|Foster Sawyer||QB||6’5, 228||FR||11||62||0||5.6||2.1||54.5%||0 (0)|
|Bram Kohlhausen||QB||6’2, 203||SR||6||24||0||4.0||1.2||50.0%||0 (0)|
|NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.|
Aaron Green is the mainstay of the Frogs’ backfield, rushing for 1100 yards so far in the season with 10 TDs. He’s got YPC over 5, and his he gains at least 5 yards (Opportunity Rate) 41% of the time. That’s really good. A healthy Boykin, of course, adds just another dimension to the running game, though. On Saturday against OU, No one else had over five carries while Green had 23. Far more successful than Oklahoma State, but it will be interesting to see whether a sub–100% Boykin poses a serious threat in the rushing attack. It will also be interesting to see how much of the 3-man front Baylor runs against TCU, since that’s what Oklahoma State did with such effectiveness in their game.
Individual Receiving Stats
|Josh Doctson||WR||6’3, 195||SR||107||79||1327||14||16.8||12.4||73.8%||25.6%|
|Shaun Nixon||TB||5’10, 196||FR||54||36||424||1||11.8||7.9||66.7%||12.9%|
|KaVontae Turpin||WR||5’9, 152||FR||50||37||569||7||15.4||11.4||74.0%||12.0%|
|Kolby Listenbee||WR||6’1, 183||SR||45||28||593||5||21.2||13.2||62.2%||10.8%|
|Desmon White||WR||5’7, 150||SO||31||19||258||0||13.6||8.3||61.3%||7.4%|
|Jarrison Stewart||WR||6’0, 190||FR||23||17||187||0||11.0||8.1||73.9%||5.5%|
|Aaron Green||TB||5’11, 205||SR||20||13||60||1||4.6||3.0||65.0%||4.8%|
|Emanuel Porter||WR||6’4, 210||SO||18||7||112||2||16.0||6.2||38.9%||4.3%|
|Ja’Juan Story||WR||6’4, 208||SR||16||9||84||1||9.3||5.3||56.2%||3.8%|
|Kyle Hicks||TB||5’10, 200||SO||13||7||88||1||12.6||6.8||53.8%||3.1%|
|Ty Slanina||WR||6’0, 193||JR||11||11||134||0||12.2||12.2||100.0%||2.6%|
|Jaelan Austin||WR||6’0, 192||FR||10||6||70||1||11.7||7.0||60.0%||2.4%|
|Tony James||WR||5’10, 156||FR||6||2||20||0||10.0||3.3||33.3%||1.4%|
|Charlie Reid||WR||6’4, 225||SO||3||3||24||1||8.0||8.0||100.0%||0.7%|
|Preston Miller||WR||5’9, 170||JR||3||1||6||0||6.0||2.0||33.3%||0.7%|
Pour one out for Josh Doctson, Boykin’s partner in crime. As good as Boykin has been the past two seasons, Josh Doctson has made Boykin look even better than he is. Before he went down with a wrist injury, he and Corey Coleman were basically 1 and 1a for the Biletnikoff (that is, until the past two days for Coleman also). All Boykin needed to do was heave the ball in the general direction of Doctson, who would make some sort of amazing adjustment and circus grab to haul it in. He was really fun to watch play football, and it’s unfortunate we won’t get to see him play in this game.
As for the person taking up the slack, it appears to mostly be Kolby Listenbee, as he caught 4 passes for 98 yards on Saturday against OU. KaVontae Turpin only had one catch, but it was for 86 yards and a score. Tailback Shaun Nixon also caught 5 passes for 23 yards. Based on those numbers and without having seen most of the game (it was happening at the same time as ours), Listenbee appears to be the new favorite target if you base it on that game alone, but he has fewer targets on the season overall than Turpin does, and a lower catch rate. That said, his yards per target and yards per catch are higher than Turpin’s. So, who knows at this point. Cover them both. That’s my incredibly nuanced, in-depth analysis of how to prepare for these WRs.
Individual Defensive Statistics
|Name||Pos||Ht, Wt||Year||Tackles||% of Team||TFL||Sacks||Int||PBU||FF||FR|
|Derrick Kindred||S||5’10, 210||SR||61.0||10.0%||3.5||0.0||2||1||2||0|
|Travin Howard||S||6’1, 190||SO||59.0||9.7%||6.0||0.0||1||2||2||0|
|Denzel Johnson||S||6’2, 205||JR||54.0||8.9%||10.0||2.0||1||6||0||0|
|Montrel Wilson||LB||6’3, 208||FR||44.5||7.3%||4.0||2.5||0||1||1||0|
|Ty Summers||LB||6’2, 230||FR||40.0||6.6%||0.5||0.0||1||1||0||0|
|Nick Orr||S||5’10, 166||SO||32.5||5.3%||3.0||1.0||0||9||1||0|
|Josh Carraway||DE||6’4, 250||JR||31.0||5.1%||9.0||7.0||0||2||0||1|
|Ridwan Issahaku||S||6’1, 180||FR||31.0||5.1%||2.0||0.0||0||4||0||0|
|Corry O’Meally||CB||6’0, 170||SR||31.0||5.1%||0.5||0.5||0||10||0||0|
|Aaron Curry||DT||6’2, 280||JR||30.5||5.0%||4.0||3.0||0||0||0||0|
|Terrell Lathan||DE||6’5, 280||SR||24.5||4.0%||5.0||3.0||0||3||1||0|
|Torrance Mosley||CB||5’10, 160||SO||18.0||3.0%||0.0||0.0||0||3||0||0|
|Chris Bradley||DT||6’2, 255||SO||17.0||2.8%||4.5||2.0||0||1||0||0|
|Mike Tuaua||DE||6’3, 253||SR||15.5||2.5%||2.5||0.5||0||0||0||0|
|Davion Pierson||DT||6’2, 305||SR||13.5||2.2%||2.5||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Michael Downing||S||5’11, 175||SO||13.5||2.2%||0.0||0.0||1||0||0||0|
|Alec Dunham||LB||6’1, 213||FR||9.5||1.6%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Tevin Lawson||DT||6’4, 280||JR||8.5||1.4%||1.0||1.0||0||0||1||0|
|Bryson Henderson||DE||6’6, 275||SO||8.0||1.3%||2.5||1.5||0||0||1||0|
|Julius Lewis||CB||5’10, 170||FR||6.5||1.1%||1.0||0.0||0||2||0||0|
|Mike Freeze||LB||6’3, 220||FR||6.0||1.0%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Ranthony Texada||CB||5’10, 170||SO||5.5||0.9%||1.0||0.0||0||2||0||0|
|Kenny Iloka||S||6’2, 209||SR||5.5||0.9%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Tipa Galeai||DE||6’5, 220||FR||5.0||0.8%||1.0||1.0||0||0||0||0|
|Arico Evans||S||6’2, 196||FR||3.5||0.6%||0.0||0.0||0||0||0||0|
|Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.|
This is a defense that has clearly taken a step back from its previously dominant footprint. That being said, it’s easy to forget that the defense was returning 5 starters from last season and have been rocked by injuries and other issues throughout the season. We’ll get to the nitty gritty of the defensive stats tomorrow, but it would seem that the "Gary Patterson is a defensive magician" narrative has taken a bit of a hit this season. It won’t matter that much, most likely. It’s a rivalry game, after all!
2015 TCU Horned Frogs Team Stats and Rankings
|3rd Down Conv %||10||3||0.491||Texas Tech||0.535||Texas Tech||0.535|
|3rd Down Defense||6||1||0.281||Clemson||0.225||TCU||0.281|
|4th Down Conv %||101||9||0.400||Oklahoma St.||1.000||Oklahoma St.||1.000|
|4th Down Defense||47||4||0.462||Penn St.||0.167||Oklahoma||0.400|
|Blocked Kicks Allowed||62||7||2||30 teams tied||0||4 teams tied||0|
|Blocked Punts||Temple||5||Oklahoma St.
|Blocked Punts Allowed||1||1||0||65 teams tied||0||8 teams tied||0|
|Completion Percentage||27||4||0.636||Western Ky.||0.733||Oklahoma||0.671|
|Defensive TDs||32||3||2||Buffalo||7||Oklahoma St.||5|
|Fewest Penalties||95||8||78||Navy||33||Iowa St.||55|
|Fewest Penalties/Game||93||7||7.09||Georgia Tech||3.27||Iowa St.||5.00|
|Fewest Penalty Yards||115||9||774||Navy||284||Kansas St.||440|
|Fewest Penalty YPG||113||8||70.36||Navy||28.40||Iowa St.||41.73|
|First Downs Defense||76||5||232||Clemson||145||West Virginia||202|
|First Downs Offense||4||2||316||Bowling Green||327||Texas Tech||318|
|Fumbles Recovered||62||7||7||Virginia Tech||15||Oklahoma St.||11|
|Kickoff Return Defense||32||3||19.28||Memphis||15.00||Kansas St.||16.95|
|Kickoff Returns||24||3||24.12||Tennessee||38.05||Kansas St.||25.19|
|Passes Had Intercepted||105||8||13||Navy||1||Texas||5|
|Passes Intercepted||107||8||6||Arkansas St.||21||West Virginia||19|
|Passing Offense||5||2||363.5||Washington St.||406.9||Texas Tech||391.3|
|Passing Yards Allowed||72||3||228.2||San Jose St.||149.6||Oklahoma||190.3|
|Passing Yards/Cplt||11||3||14.38||Army West Point||23.00||Baylor||17.62|
|Punt Return Defense||10||2||2.82||Oklahoma||0.70||Oklahoma||0.70|
|Punt Returns||37||3||10.65||Texas A&M||19.68||Iowa St.||17.48|
|Red Zone Defense||42||3||0.800||Appalachian St.||0.588||Kansas||0.764|
|Red Zone Offense||108||8||0.772||BYU||0.953||Oklahoma St.||0.942|
|Rushing Defense||74||5||174.1||Boston College||76.7||Oklahoma||150.7|
|Rushing Offense||21||4||224.7||Ga. Southern||364.3||Baylor||293.4|
|Sacks Allowed||20||2||1.27||Air Force||0.09||Baylor||1.20|
|Tackles for Loss Allowed||19||3||4.73||Georgia||3.55||Texas Tech||4.27|
|Team Passing Efficiency||15||4||160.95||Baylor||193.57||Baylor||193.57|
|Passing Efficiency Def||29||2||115.23||Marshall||92.44||Oklahoma||106.28|
|Team Sacks||44||7||2.36||Penn St.
|Team Tackles for Loss||66||7||6.0||Boston College||9.6||Baylor||8.2|
|Time of Possession||49||4||30:53||Stanford||35:18||Kansas St.||32:33|
|Total Defense||68||2||402.3||Boston College||255.6||Oklahoma||341.0|
|Turnover Margin||88||7||–0.27||San Diego St.||1.55||Oklahoma St.||1.36|
|Turnovers Gained||102||8||13||San Diego St.||28||Oklahoma St.||27|
It’s Question Time!
FIRST: Best reaction gif you’ve got for the win over Oklahoma State. I would like to see it.
SECOND: After what you saw on Saturday, how confident are you in Chris Johnson to take us the rest of the way?
THIRD: How concerned are you about the rain for Friday? Given the depth issues at QB, do you think the rain alters the game plan at all?
FOURTH: What’s your absolute favorite dish for Thanksgiving? Favorite dessert?
FIFTH: DO WE FINALLY SEE CHROME TROOPER? If no, what’s your uniform prediction?