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First LOOK: TCU Horned Frogs

Tuesday means First Looks. This First Look is the the lookiest of the first looks. That made no sense.

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
at
7/7/10 BAYLOR (9–1, 6–1) at 15/16/18 TCU (9–2, 6–2)
Nov. 27, 2015 | 6:30 p.m. CT
Fort Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000)

TV: ESPN
Watch |  Listen | Gametracker Gametracker | Game Notes Notes

OPPONENT: TCU Horned Frogs
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. TCU
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.gofrogs.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 TCU Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: TCU Horned Frogs Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 61–58 Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; OU 30, TCU 29
SB NATION BLOG: Frogs O’ War, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –1.5 (Open: PK)
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. CST Friday
WEATHER FORECAST: Cold, wet, & windy, high of 60° (wunderground puts) game time temp at 47°)

SBNation.com TCU Preview
baylorbears.com Preview
Bears vs. Frogs Coverage

You’ve GOT to be Kidding Me

There’s no question about it, folks. This game is going to be cold. It’s going to be wet. And it will be windy. This will make the third game this season that Baylor has played in that will have the potential for significant downpour before and during the game. The others were reasonably warm, but this one looks to be suuuuuper chilly with winds blowing hard from the north, too. We can’t have nice things.

One significant difference between those two games played during the rain in McLane and this game: Amon G. Carter Stadium is a grass field. How will that turf hold up to a forecast that has a high percentage of rain chance for both Thursday AND Friday? This could be a good old fashioned slop fest of a game. I’ve heard from some folks that the field drains well, so there’s that at least. I’m fascinated by how the team prepares for that. Do they over-water a grass field for practice? Just roll with it and let the chips fall? I’d love to hear insight if anyone has it.

RIVALRY WEEK!

With all apologies to Jason Kirk, this is a rivalry game and we happily embrace it as such. It’s certainly a rivalry that has been ratcheted up a notch or twelve given the outcome of last year’s matchup and the ensuring College Football Playoff arms race and eventual disappointment for both teams. It’s almost certain that the chippiness may be at an all-time high for this week’s game, tempered only slightly by the losses suffered by both teams, both on the field and in the injury department. But, that being said, I’d like to reproduce for you what Mark said about this rivalry in last year’s First Look for this game, because it bears repeating, and our stance at ODB has not changed:

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: when Baylor and TCU play, it represents a meeting of two fanbases with a lot of history, acrimony, and, if we’re being honest, similarity between them. That makes almost any discussion about a game like this a breeding ground for name-calling, trolling, and the like. You’ll see a lot of Baylor fans talking crap about TCU in other places and vice versa, a lot of people talking about how much they don’t like the other side or what they wish would happen to that guy they met once that was a total douchebag and definitely represents every single Bear/Horned Frog (depending on your alignment) in existence.

I can’t tell you not to hate the Horned Frogs. Horned Frogs, I can’t tell you not to hate the Bears. Part of being a fan is having strong feelings with almost no justification, and that’s fine. I can’t change the way you feel, nor do I want to detract from the overall atmosphere of the game itself, which should be amazing. What I can tell you is that if you come here as a troll, you will be banned as a troll. The same goes if you leave here as one to head somewhere else. You may think that’s just a natural part of online interaction, but I don’t care. All are welcome here as long as they are civil, and that rule applies no matter the color of the jersey you root for on Saturday Friday (ed.).

Good-natured and humorous takes are fully welcome. Vitriol and outright churlishness are not.

TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Schedule

Record: 9–2 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.7 (–0.3) | S&P+ Rk: 18
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Score W-L Percentile
Performance
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Win
Expectancy
3-Sep at Minnesota 37 23–17 W 69% 9.8 88%
12-Sep Stephen F. Austin N/A 70–7 W 95% 56.6 100%
19-Sep SMU 102 56–37 W 83% 24.6 100%
26-Sep at Texas Tech 53 55–52 W 59% 4.5 71%
3-Oct Texas 86 50–7 W 98% 56.2 100%
10-Oct at Kansas State 77 52–45 W 66% 11.5 92%
17-Oct at Iowa State 70 45–21 W 83% 20.4 99%
29-Oct West Virginia 15 40–10 W 91% 22.4 100%
7-Nov at Oklahoma State 19 29–49 L 14% –22.0 0%
14-Nov Kansas 126 23–17 W 37% 5.3 74%
21-Nov at Oklahoma 4 29–30 L 61% –0.1 49%
Date Opponent Opp. S&P+ Rk Win
Probability
Proj.
W-L
Proj.
Margin
Proj.
Score
Cumulative
Proj. Wins
27-Nov Baylor 6 42% L –3.3 34.7 - 38.0 9.42

Like the individual stats below, I’ve decided to pull the schedule information from the Advanced Stats Profile page because it has really nifty things that I don’t fully understand even though I’ve read every explanation multiple times. With Saturday’s loss, TCU effectively eliminated any hopes they had at a berth in the College Football Playoff and cannot with the Big 12 this season. While going for 2 on the road in a hostile environment with the injuries that team had is certainly understandable, Patterson’s postgame justification for his decision there is not… Unless you’re a TCU fan, in which case you’ve adopted it wholly and cannot fathom why people don’t understand it. Probably.

TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Individual Stats

Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.

Passing Statistics

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Trevone Boykin 6’2, 205 SR 239 363 3427 29 9 65.8% 10 2.7% 9.1
Bram Kohlhausen 6’2, 203 SR 27 43 369 3 1 62.8% 1 2.3% 8.3
Foster Sawyer 6’5, 228 FR 10 26 155 2 3 38.5% 3 10.3% 5.0

Of course, the real question from this bunch is the status of Trevone Boykin. Apparently he’s practicing, but not 100%. If he’s actually participating in full pads workouts, then I’ll expect him to go on Friday no matter what percentage he is. Bram Kohlhausen (CABBAGEBELUGA) was solid in the second half of the game against OU, though not spectacular. Foster Sawyer, who started the game for the Frogs, threw three interceptions. He’s also 1/2 to 2/3 of a complete law firm, all by himself.

Perhaps as important or nearly as important as the Boykin question is the news that TCU’s center, Joey Hunt, will not play on Friday. He’s one of the anchors of their offensive line, and would have been tasked with stopping Andrew Billings all game long, who was a literal figurative bear on Saturday night against Oklahoma State.

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Aaron Green TB 5’11, 205 SR 204 1100 10 5.4 5.0 41.7% 2 (1)
Trevone Boykin QB 6’2, 205 SR 99 640 8 6.5 5.4 50.5% 2 (0)
Trevorris Johnson TB 5’11, 221 SO 42 262 0 6.2 4.0 50.0% 1 (1)
Kyle Hicks TB 5’10, 200 SO 39 197 3 5.1 5.2 33.3% 0 (0)
Colten Christensen TB 5’9, 185 SR 16 66 1 4.1 1.1 37.5% 0 (0)
KaVontae Turpin WR 5’9, 152 FR 13 91 0 7.0 4.2 61.5% 3 (1)
Shaun Nixon TB 5’10, 196 FR 13 61 0 4.7 3.5 46.2% 0 (0)
Foster Sawyer QB 6’5, 228 FR 11 62 0 5.6 2.1 54.5% 0 (0)
Bram Kohlhausen QB 6’2, 203 SR 6 24 0 4.0 1.2 50.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Aaron Green is the mainstay of the Frogs’ backfield, rushing for 1100 yards so far in the season with 10 TDs. He’s got YPC over 5, and his he gains at least 5 yards (Opportunity Rate) 41% of the time. That’s really good. A healthy Boykin, of course, adds just another dimension to the running game, though. On Saturday against OU, No one else had over five carries while Green had 23. Far more successful than Oklahoma State, but it will be interesting to see whether a sub–100% Boykin poses a serious threat in the rushing attack. It will also be interesting to see how much of the 3-man front Baylor runs against TCU, since that’s what Oklahoma State did with such effectiveness in their game.

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Target
Rate
Josh Doctson WR 6’3, 195 SR 107 79 1327 14 16.8 12.4 73.8% 25.6%
Shaun Nixon TB 5’10, 196 FR 54 36 424 1 11.8 7.9 66.7% 12.9%
KaVontae Turpin WR 5’9, 152 FR 50 37 569 7 15.4 11.4 74.0% 12.0%
Kolby Listenbee WR 6’1, 183 SR 45 28 593 5 21.2 13.2 62.2% 10.8%
Desmon White WR 5’7, 150 SO 31 19 258 0 13.6 8.3 61.3% 7.4%
Jarrison Stewart WR 6’0, 190 FR 23 17 187 0 11.0 8.1 73.9% 5.5%
Aaron Green TB 5’11, 205 SR 20 13 60 1 4.6 3.0 65.0% 4.8%
Emanuel Porter WR 6’4, 210 SO 18 7 112 2 16.0 6.2 38.9% 4.3%
Ja’Juan Story WR 6’4, 208 SR 16 9 84 1 9.3 5.3 56.2% 3.8%
Kyle Hicks TB 5’10, 200 SO 13 7 88 1 12.6 6.8 53.8% 3.1%
Ty Slanina WR 6’0, 193 JR 11 11 134 0 12.2 12.2 100.0% 2.6%
Jaelan Austin WR 6’0, 192 FR 10 6 70 1 11.7 7.0 60.0% 2.4%
Tony James WR 5’10, 156 FR 6 2 20 0 10.0 3.3 33.3% 1.4%
Charlie Reid WR 6’4, 225 SO 3 3 24 1 8.0 8.0 100.0% 0.7%
Preston Miller WR 5’9, 170 JR 3 1 6 0 6.0 2.0 33.3% 0.7%

Pour one out for Josh Doctson, Boykin’s partner in crime. As good as Boykin has been the past two seasons, Josh Doctson has made Boykin look even better than he is. Before he went down with a wrist injury, he and Corey Coleman were basically 1 and 1a for the Biletnikoff (that is, until the past two days for Coleman also). All Boykin needed to do was heave the ball in the general direction of Doctson, who would make some sort of amazing adjustment and circus grab to haul it in. He was really fun to watch play football, and it’s unfortunate we won’t get to see him play in this game.

As for the person taking up the slack, it appears to mostly be Kolby Listenbee, as he caught 4 passes for 98 yards on Saturday against OU. KaVontae Turpin only had one catch, but it was for 86 yards and a score. Tailback Shaun Nixon also caught 5 passes for 23 yards. Based on those numbers and without having seen most of the game (it was happening at the same time as ours), Listenbee appears to be the new favorite target if you base it on that game alone, but he has fewer targets on the season overall than Turpin does, and a lower catch rate. That said, his yards per target and yards per catch are higher than Turpin’s. So, who knows at this point. Cover them both. That’s my incredibly nuanced, in-depth analysis of how to prepare for these WRs.

Individual Defensive Statistics

Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Derrick Kindred S 5’10, 210 SR 61.0 10.0% 3.5 0.0 2 1 2 0
Travin Howard S 6’1, 190 SO 59.0 9.7% 6.0 0.0 1 2 2 0
Denzel Johnson S 6’2, 205 JR 54.0 8.9% 10.0 2.0 1 6 0 0
Montrel Wilson LB 6’3, 208 FR 44.5 7.3% 4.0 2.5 0 1 1 0
Ty Summers LB 6’2, 230 FR 40.0 6.6% 0.5 0.0 1 1 0 0
Nick Orr S 5’10, 166 SO 32.5 5.3% 3.0 1.0 0 9 1 0
Josh Carraway DE 6’4, 250 JR 31.0 5.1% 9.0 7.0 0 2 0 1
Ridwan Issahaku S 6’1, 180 FR 31.0 5.1% 2.0 0.0 0 4 0 0
Corry O’Meally CB 6’0, 170 SR 31.0 5.1% 0.5 0.5 0 10 0 0
Aaron Curry DT 6’2, 280 JR 30.5 5.0% 4.0 3.0 0 0 0 0
Terrell Lathan DE 6’5, 280 SR 24.5 4.0% 5.0 3.0 0 3 1 0
Torrance Mosley CB 5’10, 160 SO 18.0 3.0% 0.0 0.0 0 3 0 0
Chris Bradley DT 6’2, 255 SO 17.0 2.8% 4.5 2.0 0 1 0 0
Mike Tuaua DE 6’3, 253 SR 15.5 2.5% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Davion Pierson DT 6’2, 305 SR 13.5 2.2% 2.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Michael Downing S 5’11, 175 SO 13.5 2.2% 0.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Alec Dunham LB 6’1, 213 FR 9.5 1.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tevin Lawson DT 6’4, 280 JR 8.5 1.4% 1.0 1.0 0 0 1 0
Bryson Henderson DE 6’6, 275 SO 8.0 1.3% 2.5 1.5 0 0 1 0
Julius Lewis CB 5’10, 170 FR 6.5 1.1% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Mike Freeze LB 6’3, 220 FR 6.0 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Ranthony Texada CB 5’10, 170 SO 5.5 0.9% 1.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Kenny Iloka S 6’2, 209 SR 5.5 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Tipa Galeai DE 6’5, 220 FR 5.0 0.8% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Arico Evans S 6’2, 196 FR 3.5 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

This is a defense that has clearly taken a step back from its previously dominant footprint. That being said, it’s easy to forget that the defense was returning 5 starters from last season and have been rocked by injuries and other issues throughout the season. We’ll get to the nitty gritty of the defensive stats tomorrow, but it would seem that the "Gary Patterson is a defensive magician" narrative has taken a bit of a hit this season. It won’t matter that much, most likely. It’s a rivalry game, after all!

2015 TCU Horned Frogs Team Stats and Rankings

Statistic National
Rank
Conference
Rank
Value National Leader Value Conference
Leader
Value
3rd Down Conv % 10 3 0.491 Texas Tech 0.535 Texas Tech 0.535
3rd Down Defense 6 1 0.281 Clemson 0.225 TCU 0.281
4th Down Conv % 101 9 0.400 Oklahoma St. 1.000 Oklahoma St. 1.000
4th Down Defense 47 4 0.462 Penn St. 0.167 Oklahoma 0.400
Blocked Kicks Temple 6 Baylor
Kansas
Oklahoma St.
2
2
2
Blocked Kicks Allowed 62 7 2 30 teams tied 0 4 teams tied 0
Blocked Punts Temple 5 Oklahoma St.
Baylor
1
1
Blocked Punts Allowed 1 1 0 65 teams tied 0 8 teams tied 0
Completion Percentage 27 4 0.636 Western Ky. 0.733 Oklahoma 0.671
Defensive TDs 32 3 2 Buffalo 7 Oklahoma St. 5
Fewest Penalties 95 8 78 Navy 33 Iowa St. 55
Fewest Penalties/Game 93 7 7.09 Georgia Tech 3.27 Iowa St. 5.00
Fewest Penalty Yards 115 9 774 Navy 284 Kansas St. 440
Fewest Penalty YPG 113 8 70.36 Navy 28.40 Iowa St. 41.73
First Downs Defense 76 5 232 Clemson 145 West Virginia 202
First Downs Offense 4 2 316 Bowling Green 327 Texas Tech 318
Fumbles Lost 2 1 3 Ohio 2 TCU 3
Fumbles Recovered 62 7 7 Virginia Tech 15 Oklahoma St. 11
Kickoff Return Defense 32 3 19.28 Memphis 15.00 Kansas St. 16.95
Kickoff Returns 24 3 24.12 Tennessee 38.05 Kansas St. 25.19
Net Punting 76 8 36.88 Utah 43.44 Oklahoma 41.23
Passes Had Intercepted 105 8 13 Navy 1 Texas 5
Passes Intercepted 107 8 6 Arkansas St. 21 West Virginia 19
Passing Offense 5 2 363.5 Washington St. 406.9 Texas Tech 391.3
Passing Yards Allowed 72 3 228.2 San Jose St. 149.6 Oklahoma 190.3
Passing Yards/Cplt 11 3 14.38 Army West Point 23.00 Baylor 17.62
Punt Return Defense 10 2 2.82 Oklahoma 0.70 Oklahoma 0.70
Punt Returns 37 3 10.65 Texas A&M 19.68 Iowa St. 17.48
Red Zone Defense 42 3 0.800 Appalachian St. 0.588 Kansas 0.764
Red Zone Offense 108 8 0.772 BYU 0.953 Oklahoma St. 0.942
Rushing Defense 74 5 174.1 Boston College 76.7 Oklahoma 150.7
Rushing Offense 21 4 224.7 Ga. Southern 364.3 Baylor 293.4
Sacks Allowed 20 2 1.27 Air Force 0.09 Baylor 1.20
Scoring Defense 62 4 26.5 Wisconsin 12.4 Oklahoma 20.5
Scoring Offense 6 4 42.9 Baylor 53.8 Baylor 53.8
Tackles for Loss Allowed 19 3 4.73 Georgia 3.55 Texas Tech 4.27
Team Passing Efficiency 15 4 160.95 Baylor 193.57 Baylor 193.57
Passing Efficiency Def 29 2 115.23 Marshall 92.44 Oklahoma 106.28
Team Sacks 44 7 2.36 Penn St.
Arizona St.
4.00
4.00
Oklahoma 3.45
Team Tackles for Loss 66 7 6.0 Boston College 9.6 Baylor 8.2
Time of Possession 49 4 30:53 Stanford 35:18 Kansas St. 32:33
Total Defense 68 2 402.3 Boston College 255.6 Oklahoma 341.0
Total Offense 2 2 588.2 Baylor 644.1 Baylor 644.1
Turnover Margin 88 7 –0.27 San Diego St. 1.55 Oklahoma St. 1.36
Turnovers Gained 102 8 13 San Diego St. 28 Oklahoma St. 27
Turnovers Lost 48 4 16 Navy 6 Texas
Oklahoma St.
12
12
Winning Percentage 15 4 0.818 Clemson
Iowa
1.000
1.000
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
0.909
0.909

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: Best reaction gif you’ve got for the win over Oklahoma State. I would like to see it.
SECOND: After what you saw on Saturday, how confident are you in Chris Johnson to take us the rest of the way?
THIRD: How concerned are you about the rain for Friday? Given the depth issues at QB, do you think the rain alters the game plan at all?
FOURTH: What’s your absolute favorite dish for Thanksgiving? Favorite dessert?
FIFTH: DO WE FINALLY SEE CHROME TROOPER? If no, what’s your uniform prediction?