First LOOK: TCU Horned Frogs

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7/7/10 BAYLOR (9–1, 6–1) at 15/16/18 TCU (9–2, 6–2) Nov. 27, 2015 | 6:30 p.m. CT Fort Worth, Texas | Amon G. Carter Stadium (45,000) TV: ESPN

Watch |  Listen | Gametracker | Notes

OPPONENT: TCU Horned Frogs
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. TCU
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.gofrogs.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 TCU Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: TCU Horned Frogs Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 61–58 Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; OU 30, TCU 29
SB NATION BLOG: Frogs O’ War, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –1.5 (Open: PK)
TV COVERAGE: ESPN, 6:30 p.m. CST Friday
WEATHER FORECAST: Cold, wet, & windy, high of 60° (wunderground puts) game time temp at 47°)

SBNation.com TCU Preview
baylorbears.com Preview
Bears vs. Frogs Coverage

You’ve GOT to be Kidding Me

There’s no question about it, folks. This game is going to be cold. It’s going to be wet. And it will be windy. This will make the third game this season that Baylor has played in that will have the potential for significant downpour before and during the game. The others were reasonably warm, but this one looks to be suuuuuper chilly with winds blowing hard from the north, too. We can’t have nice things.

One significant difference between those two games played during the rain in McLane and this game: Amon G. Carter Stadium is a grass field. How will that turf hold up to a forecast that has a high percentage of rain chance for both Thursday AND Friday? This could be a good old fashioned slop fest of a game. I’ve heard from some folks that the field drains well, so there’s that at least. I’m fascinated by how the team prepares for that. Do they over-water a grass field for practice? Just roll with it and let the chips fall? I’d love to hear insight if anyone has it.

RIVALRY WEEK!

With all apologies to Jason Kirk, this is a rivalry game and we happily embrace it as such. It’s certainly a rivalry that has been ratcheted up a notch or twelve given the outcome of last year’s matchup and the ensuring College Football Playoff arms race and eventual disappointment for both teams. It’s almost certain that the chippiness may be at an all-time high for this week’s game, tempered only slightly by the losses suffered by both teams, both on the field and in the injury department. But, that being said, I’d like to reproduce for you what Mark said about this rivalry in last year’s First Look for this game, because it bears repeating, and our stance at ODB has not changed:

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: when Baylor and TCU play, it represents a meeting of two fanbases with a lot of history, acrimony, and, if we’re being honest, similarity between them. That makes almost any discussion about a game like this a breeding ground for name-calling, trolling, and the like. You’ll see a lot of Baylor fans talking crap about TCU in other places and vice versa, a lot of people talking about how much they don’t like the other side or what they wish would happen to that guy they met once that was a total douchebag and definitely represents every single Bear/Horned Frog (depending on your alignment) in existence.

I can’t tell you not to hate the Horned Frogs. Horned Frogs, I can’t tell you not to hate the Bears. Part of being a fan is having strong feelings with almost no justification, and that’s fine. I can’t change the way you feel, nor do I want to detract from the overall atmosphere of the game itself, which should be amazing. What I can tell you is that if you come here as a troll, you will be banned as a troll. The same goes if you leave here as one to head somewhere else. You may think that’s just a natural part of online interaction, but I don’t care. All are welcome here as long as they are civil, and that rule applies no matter the color of the jersey you root for on Saturday Friday (ed.).

Good-natured and humorous takes are fully welcome. Vitriol and outright churlishness are not.

TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Schedule

Record: 9–2 | Second-order wins (diff.): 8.7 (–0.3) | S&P+ Rk: 18
Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Score	W-L	Percentile Performance	Adj. Scoring Margin	Win Expectancy
3-Sep	at Minnesota	37	23–17	W	69%	9.8	88%
12-Sep	Stephen F. Austin	N/A	70–7	W	95%	56.6	100%
19-Sep	SMU	102	56–37	W	83%	24.6	100%
26-Sep	at Texas Tech	53	55–52	W	59%	4.5	71%
3-Oct	Texas	86	50–7	W	98%	56.2	100%
10-Oct	at Kansas State	77	52–45	W	66%	11.5	92%
17-Oct	at Iowa State	70	45–21	W	83%	20.4	99%
29-Oct	West Virginia	15	40–10	W	91%	22.4	100%
7-Nov	at Oklahoma State	19	29–49	L	14%	–22.0	0%
14-Nov	Kansas	126	23–17	W	37%	5.3	74%
21-Nov	at Oklahoma	4	29–30	L	61%	–0.1	49%

Date	Opponent	Opp. S&P+ Rk	Win Probability	Proj. W-L	Proj. Margin	Proj. Score	Cumulative Proj. Wins
27-Nov	Baylor	6	42%	L	–3.3	34.7 - 38.0	9.42

Like the individual stats below, I’ve decided to pull the schedule information from the Advanced Stats Profile page because it has really nifty things that I don’t fully understand even though I’ve read every explanation multiple times. With Saturday’s loss, TCU effectively eliminated any hopes they had at a berth in the College Football Playoff and cannot with the Big 12 this season. While going for 2 on the road in a hostile environment with the injuries that team had is certainly understandable, Patterson’s postgame justification for his decision there is not… Unless you’re a TCU fan, in which case you’ve adopted it wholly and cannot fathom why people don’t understand it. Probably.

TCU Horned Frogs 2015 Individual Stats

Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.

Passing Statistics

Player	Ht, Wt	Year	Comp	Att	Yards	TD	INT	Comp Rate	Sacks	Sack Rate	Yards/ Att.
Trevone Boykin	6’2, 205	SR	239	363	3427	29	9	65.8%	10	2.7%	9.1
Bram Kohlhausen	6’2, 203	SR	27	43	369	3	1	62.8%	1	2.3%	8.3
Foster Sawyer	6’5, 228	FR	10	26	155	2	3	38.5%	3	10.3%	5.0

Of course, the real question from this bunch is the status of Trevone Boykin. Apparently he’s practicing, but not 100%. If he’s actually participating in full pads workouts, then I’ll expect him to go on Friday no matter what percentage he is. Bram Kohlhausen (CABBAGEBELUGA) was solid in the second half of the game against OU, though not spectacular. Foster Sawyer, who started the game for the Frogs, threw three interceptions. He’s also 1/2 to 2/3 of a complete law firm, all by himself.

Perhaps as important or nearly as important as the Boykin question is the news that TCU’s center, Joey Hunt, will not play on Friday. He’s one of the anchors of their offensive line, and would have been tasked with stopping Andrew Billings all game long, who was a literal figurative bear on Saturday night against Oklahoma State.

Individual Rushing Stats

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Rushes	Yards	TD	Yards/ Carry	Hlt Yds/ Opp.	Opp. Rate	Fumbles (Lost)
Aaron Green	TB	5’11, 205	SR	204	1100	10	5.4	5.0	41.7%	2 (1)
Trevone Boykin	QB	6’2, 205	SR	99	640	8	6.5	5.4	50.5%	2 (0)
Trevorris Johnson	TB	5’11, 221	SO	42	262	0	6.2	4.0	50.0%	1 (1)
Kyle Hicks	TB	5’10, 200	SO	39	197	3	5.1	5.2	33.3%	0 (0)
Colten Christensen	TB	5’9, 185	SR	16	66	1	4.1	1.1	37.5%	0 (0)
KaVontae Turpin	WR	5’9, 152	FR	13	91	0	7.0	4.2	61.5%	3 (1)
Shaun Nixon	TB	5’10, 196	FR	13	61	0	4.7	3.5	46.2%	0 (0)
Foster Sawyer	QB	6’5, 228	FR	11	62	0	5.6	2.1	54.5%	0 (0)
Bram Kohlhausen	QB	6’2, 203	SR	6	24	0	4.0	1.2	50.0%	0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Aaron Green is the mainstay of the Frogs’ backfield, rushing for 1100 yards so far in the season with 10 TDs. He’s got YPC over 5, and his he gains at least 5 yards (Opportunity Rate) 41% of the time. That’s really good. A healthy Boykin, of course, adds just another dimension to the running game, though. On Saturday against OU, No one else had over five carries while Green had 23. Far more successful than Oklahoma State, but it will be interesting to see whether a sub–100% Boykin poses a serious threat in the rushing attack. It will also be interesting to see how much of the 3-man front Baylor runs against TCU, since that’s what Oklahoma State did with such effectiveness in their game.

Individual Receiving Stats

Player	Pos.	Ht, Wt	Year	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	Yds/ Catch	Yds/ Target	Catch Rate	Target Rate
Josh Doctson	WR	6’3, 195	SR	107	79	1327	14	16.8	12.4	73.8%	25.6%
Shaun Nixon	TB	5’10, 196	FR	54	36	424	1	11.8	7.9	66.7%	12.9%
KaVontae Turpin	WR	5’9, 152	FR	50	37	569	7	15.4	11.4	74.0%	12.0%
Kolby Listenbee	WR	6’1, 183	SR	45	28	593	5	21.2	13.2	62.2%	10.8%
Desmon White	WR	5’7, 150	SO	31	19	258	0	13.6	8.3	61.3%	7.4%
Jarrison Stewart	WR	6’0, 190	FR	23	17	187	0	11.0	8.1	73.9%	5.5%
Aaron Green	TB	5’11, 205	SR	20	13	60	1	4.6	3.0	65.0%	4.8%
Emanuel Porter	WR	6’4, 210	SO	18	7	112	2	16.0	6.2	38.9%	4.3%
Ja’Juan Story	WR	6’4, 208	SR	16	9	84	1	9.3	5.3	56.2%	3.8%
Kyle Hicks	TB	5’10, 200	SO	13	7	88	1	12.6	6.8	53.8%	3.1%
Ty Slanina	WR	6’0, 193	JR	11	11	134	0	12.2	12.2	100.0%	2.6%
Jaelan Austin	WR	6’0, 192	FR	10	6	70	1	11.7	7.0	60.0%	2.4%
Tony James	WR	5’10, 156	FR	6	2	20	0	10.0	3.3	33.3%	1.4%
Charlie Reid	WR	6’4, 225	SO	3	3	24	1	8.0	8.0	100.0%	0.7%
Preston Miller	WR	5’9, 170	JR	3	1	6	0	6.0	2.0	33.3%	0.7%

Pour one out for Josh Doctson, Boykin’s partner in crime. As good as Boykin has been the past two seasons, Josh Doctson has made Boykin look even better than he is. Before he went down with a wrist injury, he and Corey Coleman were basically 1 and 1a for the Biletnikoff (that is, until the past two days for Coleman also). All Boykin needed to do was heave the ball in the general direction of Doctson, who would make some sort of amazing adjustment and circus grab to haul it in. He was really fun to watch play football, and it’s unfortunate we won’t get to see him play in this game.

As for the person taking up the slack, it appears to mostly be Kolby Listenbee, as he caught 4 passes for 98 yards on Saturday against OU. KaVontae Turpin only had one catch, but it was for 86 yards and a score. Tailback Shaun Nixon also caught 5 passes for 23 yards. Based on those numbers and without having seen most of the game (it was happening at the same time as ours), Listenbee appears to be the new favorite target if you base it on that game alone, but he has fewer targets on the season overall than Turpin does, and a lower catch rate. That said, his yards per target and yards per catch are higher than Turpin’s. So, who knows at this point. Cover them both. That’s my incredibly nuanced, in-depth analysis of how to prepare for these WRs.

Individual Defensive Statistics

Name	Pos	Ht, Wt	Year	Tackles	% of Team	TFL	Sacks	Int	PBU	FF	FR
Derrick Kindred	S	5’10, 210	SR	61.0	10.0%	3.5	0.0	2	1	2	0
Travin Howard	S	6’1, 190	SO	59.0	9.7%	6.0	0.0	1	2	2	0
Denzel Johnson	S	6’2, 205	JR	54.0	8.9%	10.0	2.0	1	6	0	0
Montrel Wilson	LB	6’3, 208	FR	44.5	7.3%	4.0	2.5	0	1	1	0
Ty Summers	LB	6’2, 230	FR	40.0	6.6%	0.5	0.0	1	1	0	0
Nick Orr	S	5’10, 166	SO	32.5	5.3%	3.0	1.0	0	9	1	0
Josh Carraway	DE	6’4, 250	JR	31.0	5.1%	9.0	7.0	0	2	0	1
Ridwan Issahaku	S	6’1, 180	FR	31.0	5.1%	2.0	0.0	0	4	0	0
Corry O’Meally	CB	6’0, 170	SR	31.0	5.1%	0.5	0.5	0	10	0	0
Aaron Curry	DT	6’2, 280	JR	30.5	5.0%	4.0	3.0	0	0	0	0
Terrell Lathan	DE	6’5, 280	SR	24.5	4.0%	5.0	3.0	0	3	1	0
Torrance Mosley	CB	5’10, 160	SO	18.0	3.0%	0.0	0.0	0	3	0	0
Chris Bradley	DT	6’2, 255	SO	17.0	2.8%	4.5	2.0	0	1	0	0
Mike Tuaua	DE	6’3, 253	SR	15.5	2.5%	2.5	0.5	0	0	0	0
Davion Pierson	DT	6’2, 305	SR	13.5	2.2%	2.5	1.0	0	0	0	0
Michael Downing	S	5’11, 175	SO	13.5	2.2%	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	0
Alec Dunham	LB	6’1, 213	FR	9.5	1.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tevin Lawson	DT	6’4, 280	JR	8.5	1.4%	1.0	1.0	0	0	1	0
Bryson Henderson	DE	6’6, 275	SO	8.0	1.3%	2.5	1.5	0	0	1	0
Julius Lewis	CB	5’10, 170	FR	6.5	1.1%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Mike Freeze	LB	6’3, 220	FR	6.0	1.0%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ranthony Texada	CB	5’10, 170	SO	5.5	0.9%	1.0	0.0	0	2	0	0
Kenny Iloka	S	6’2, 209	SR	5.5	0.9%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tipa Galeai	DE	6’5, 220	FR	5.0	0.8%	1.0	1.0	0	0	0	0
Arico Evans	S	6’2, 196	FR	3.5	0.6%	0.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

This is a defense that has clearly taken a step back from its previously dominant footprint. That being said, it’s easy to forget that the defense was returning 5 starters from last season and have been rocked by injuries and other issues throughout the season. We’ll get to the nitty gritty of the defensive stats tomorrow, but it would seem that the "Gary Patterson is a defensive magician" narrative has taken a bit of a hit this season. It won’t matter that much, most likely. It’s a rivalry game, after all!

2015 TCU Horned Frogs Team Stats and Rankings

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: Best reaction gif you’ve got for the win over Oklahoma State. I would like to see it.
SECOND: After what you saw on Saturday, how confident are you in Chris Johnson to take us the rest of the way?
THIRD: How concerned are you about the rain for Friday? Given the depth issues at QB, do you think the rain alters the game plan at all?
FOURTH: What’s your absolute favorite dish for Thanksgiving? Favorite dessert?
FIFTH: DO WE FINALLY SEE CHROME TROOPER? If no, what’s your uniform prediction?