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NCAA Football: Kansas State at Oklahoma State
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Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports

MATCHUP: #21 Baylor Bears (4-0, 2-0) vs. #19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0, 1-0)
LOCATION: Stillwater, Oklahoma
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys 2021
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Cowboys Ride for Free (CRFF)
WEEKLY PRESS CONFERENCE: Oklahoma State
GAME NOTES (INCLUDING DEPTH CHART): Here
SPREAD: OSU -4, O/U 47.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2, 6:00 p.m. CST Saturday
WEATHER (IN STILLWATER): From Wunderground—High of 80 degrees, scattered thunderstorms all day, chance of rain 50%, around 77 degrees at game time, light winds.

NCAA Football: Tulsa at Oklahoma State Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

How Did We Get Here?

Coming into this game, both teams sit at 4-0 overall, with Baylor having played (and won) 2 conference games to Oklahoma State’s 1. Baylor, of course, opened the season as follows:

  • Baylor 29, Texas State 20
  • Baylor 66, Texas Southern 7
  • Baylor 45, Kansas 7 (at KU)
  • Baylor 31, Iowa State 29.

On the other side, Oklahoma State’s season so far:

  • Oklahoma State 23, Missouri State 16
  • Oklahoma State 28, Tulsa 23
  • Oklahoma State 21, Boise State 20
  • Oklahoma State 31, Kansas State 20

That’s right; Oklahoma State has four wins this season by a combined total of 24 points with the largest win coming over a (then-ranked) Kansas State team missing its starting QB, Skylar Thompson. Still, 4-0 is 4-0.

NCAA Football: Kansas State at Oklahoma State Sarah Phipps-USA TODAY Sports

Advanced Stats Overview:

First, let’s go straight to F+, SP+, and FEI:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State

Rk Team F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk
Rk Team F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk
23 Oklahoma State 0.85 0.38 45 1.19 13 0.5 20 9.9 35
26 Baylor 0.82 0.26 56 1.05 18 0.35 33 13 26

Breaking things down further, below are charts based off advanced data from collegefootballdata.com. To put this together, I pulled the data for the entire country into Excel, deleted counting stats columns (that basically aggregate advanced stats) because they’re useless, inserted sorted rankings for each major stat, then split things out between offense and defense. This is not Baylor O vs. OSU D or vice versa. This is both offense and both defenses, with their rankings listed being in the entire country (and the ranking is listed to the right of a given stat).

NOTE: These are not opponent-adjusted. This is raw data, and I had to make some assumptions with respect to rankings based on what is good or bad. “But Mark,” you’re saying, “unadjusted stats are meaningless!” We’re doing the best we can here, ok? Let me know if you have thoughts. Link here to the entire spreadsheet.

Week 5 Offense

Team Plays Drives PPA Rank Success Rate Rank Explosiveness Rank Power Success Rank Stuff Rate Rank Line Yards Rank Second-Level Yards Rank Open-Field Yards Rank PPO Rank Havoc Rate Total Rank Havoc Rate Front 7 Rank Havoc Rate DBs Rank Standard Downs Rate Rank Standard Downs PPA Rank Standard Downs Success Rate Rank Standard Downs Explosiveness Rank Passing Downs Rate Rank Passing Downs PPA Rank Passing Downs Success Rate Rank Passing Downs Explosiveness Rank Rushing Plays Rate Rank Rushing Plays PPA Rank Rushing Plays Success Rate Rank Rushing Plays Explosiveness Rank Passing Plays Rate Rank Passing Plays PPA Rank Passing Plays Success Rate Rank Passing Plays Explosiveness Rank
Team Plays Drives PPA Rank Success Rate Rank Explosiveness Rank Power Success Rank Stuff Rate Rank Line Yards Rank Second-Level Yards Rank Open-Field Yards Rank PPO Rank Havoc Rate Total Rank Havoc Rate Front 7 Rank Havoc Rate DBs Rank Standard Downs Rate Rank Standard Downs PPA Rank Standard Downs Success Rate Rank Standard Downs Explosiveness Rank Passing Downs Rate Rank Passing Downs PPA Rank Passing Downs Success Rate Rank Passing Downs Explosiveness Rank Rushing Plays Rate Rank Rushing Plays PPA Rank Rushing Plays Success Rate Rank Rushing Plays Explosiveness Rank Passing Plays Rate Rank Passing Plays PPA Rank Passing Plays Success Rate Rank Passing Plays Explosiveness Rank
Baylor 215 37 0.4917 3 0.5395 3 1.3013 50 1.0000 1 0.0977 118 3.9526 5 3.2836 17 7.5938 78 4.5357 30 0.1240 20 0.1085 64 0.0155 2 0.7535 7 0.5213 2 0.6049 3 1.2430 16 0.2465 124 0.4014 53 0.3396 48 1.6186 107 0.6186 14 0.5214 2 0.5489 9 1.2766 11 0.3814 117 0.4436 28 0.5244 13 1.3432 102
Oklahoma State 276 54 0.2079 68 0.3986 95 1.3114 44 0.7778 57 0.1835 48 2.6709 111 2.4545 114 7.9474 69 3.7727 74 0.1775 88 0.1341 108 0.0435 41 0.6196 120 0.1569 65 0.4737 72 1.0489 62 0.3804 11 0.2909 85 0.2762 96 2.0445 48 0.5725 27 0.0775 100 0.3987 93 0.9094 86 0.4239 102 0.4142 37 0.4017 85 1.8501 20

Week 5 Defense

Team Plays Drives PPA Rank Success Rate Rank Explosiveness Rank Power Success Rate Rank Stuff Rate Rank Line Yards Rank Second-Level Yards Rank Open-Field Yards Rank PPO Rank Havoc Rate Total Rank Havoc Rate Front 7 Rank Havoc Rate DBs Rank Standard Downs Rate Rank Standard Downs PPA Rank Standard Downs Success Rate Rank Standard Downs Explosiveness Rank Passing Downs Rate Rank Passing Downs PPA Rank Passing Downs Success Rate Rank Passing Downs Explosiveness Rank Rushing Plays Rank Rushing Plays PPA Rank Rushing Plays Success Rate Rank Rushing Plays Explosiveness Rank Passing Plays Rate Rank Passing Plays PPA Rank Passing Plays Success Rate Rank Passing Plays Explosiveness Rank
Team Plays Drives PPA Rank Success Rate Rank Explosiveness Rank Power Success Rate Rank Stuff Rate Rank Line Yards Rank Second-Level Yards Rank Open-Field Yards Rank PPO Rank Havoc Rate Total Rank Havoc Rate Front 7 Rank Havoc Rate DBs Rank Standard Downs Rate Rank Standard Downs PPA Rank Standard Downs Success Rate Rank Standard Downs Explosiveness Rank Passing Downs Rate Rank Passing Downs PPA Rank Passing Downs Success Rate Rank Passing Downs Explosiveness Rank Rushing Plays Rank Rushing Plays PPA Rank Rushing Plays Success Rate Rank Rushing Plays Explosiveness Rank Passing Plays Rate Rank Passing Plays PPA Rank Passing Plays Success Rate Rank Passing Plays Explosiveness Rank
Oklahoma State 271 51 0.0861 31 0.3948 51 1.1283 39 0.6667 31 0.1230 108 2.8910 60 2.2368 12 12.0000 103 2.6667 16 0.1808 59 0.1365 36 0.0443 109 0.6790 76 0.0740 49 0.4293 33 0.9662 47 0.3210 76 0.1119 25 0.3218 85 1.5854 110 0.4502 35 0.0517 42 0.3852 45 0.8445 24 0.5461 36 0.1418 34 0.4054 66 1.3505 40
Baylor 204 37 0.1480 54 0.3578 24 1.2809 85 1.0000 124 0.1078 116 3.2333 94 2.5294 30 10.0000 90 3.7647 80 0.1992 39 0.1434 29 0.0558 79 0.6471 36 0.1054 64 0.4242 30 1.0950 90 0.3529 36 0.2260 44 0.2361 17 1.8934 67 0.5000 70 0.1050 58 0.3529 27 1.0113 71 0.4706 88 0.2569 78 0.3646 34 1.6664 96

Individual Statistics:

OSU Passing

Rk Player G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
Rk Player G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Spencer Sanders 3 43 73 58.9 599 8.2 8.7 4 1 143.2
2 Shane Illingworth 1 22 40 55 315 7.9 7.3 1 1 124.4

OSU Rushing & Receiving

Rk Player G Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
Rk Player G Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Jaylen Warren 4 79 387 4.9 4 7 117 16.7 0 86 504 5.9 4
2 Spencer Sanders 3 34 120 3.5 2 34 120 3.5 2
3 LD Brown 3 28 58 2.1 1 4 8 2 0 32 66 2.1 1
4 Dominic Richardson 3 11 28 2.5 0 2 2 1 0 13 30 2.3 0
5 Dezmon Jackson 2 6 20 3.3 0 6 20 3.3 0
6 Shane Illingworth 1 2 -7 -3.5 0 2 -7 -3.5 0
7 Braydon Johnson 1 1 13 13 0 2 2 1 0 3 15 5 0
8 Brennan Presley 4 1 -4 -4 0 11 178 16.2 1 12 174 14.5 1
9 Tay Martin 2 15 207 13.8 2 15 207 13.8 2
10 Jaden Bray 2 6 136 22.7 1 6 136 22.7 1
11 Rashod Owens 3 6 111 18.5 0 6 111 18.5 0
12 Bryson Green 2 5 57 11.4 1 5 57 11.4 1
13 Blaine Green 1 2 47 23.5 0 2 47 23.5 0
14 Braden Cassity 1 2 14 7 0 2 14 7 0
15 John Paul Richardson 1 2 11 5.5 0 2 11 5.5 0
16 Cale Cabbiness 1 1 24 24 0 1 24 24 0

OSU Defense

Rk Player G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF
Rk Player G Solo Ast Tot Loss Sk Int Yds Avg TD PD FR Yds TD FF
1 Malcolm Rodriguez 4 28 15 43 3 0 1 1 1 2
2 Kolby Harvell-Peel 4 13 13 26 2.5 0 2 1 0.5 0 1
3 Devin Harper 4 13 9 22 2.5 1.5 1 2 0
4 Jarrick Bernard 4 14 2 16 0 0 4
5 Christian Holmes 4 11 4 15 0 1 1
6 Tanner McCalister 4 9 5 14 0 0
7 Brock Martin 4 4 9 13 4.5 2.5
8 Tyler Lacy 4 8 2 10 3.5 1.5 1
9 Jason Taylor ll 3 8 1 9 0 0
10 Jayden Jernigan 3 7 1 8 1 0 1
11 Korie Black 4 6 2 8 0 0 1 1 0
12 Collin Oliver 4 3 5 8 1.5 0.5
13 Trey Sterling 2 3 5 8 0.5 0
14 Israel Antwine 3 3 3 6 2 1
15 Thomas Harper 3 4 2 6 0.5 0
16 Brendon Evers 4 1 4 5 0.5 0
17 Kamryn Farrar 2 4 1 5 1 1
18 Demarco Jones 2 1 3 4 0 0
19 Jabbar Muhammad 2 3 1 4 0.5 0.5
20 Sione Asi 3 3 0 3 0 0
21 Lamont Bishop 2 3 0 3 1 1
22 Mason Cobb 2 2 0 2 1 1
23 Tyren Irby 2 0 2 2 0.5 0.5
24 Jeff Roberson 1 1 1 2 0 0
25 Sean Michael Flanagan 1 0 1 1 0 0
26 Bryson Green 2 1 0 1 0 0
27 Aden Kelley 1 0 1 1 0 0
28 Ben Kopenski 1 1 0 1 1 1
29 Nathan Latu 1 1 0 1 1 0
30 Nickolas Martin 1 1 0 1 0 0
31 Dominic Richardson 3 1 0 1 0 0
32 Jake Schultz 1 0 1 1 0 0
33 Samuela Tuihalamaka 1 1 0 1 1 0
34 Kody Walterscheid 2 1 0 1 0 0
NCAA Football: Iowa State at Baylor Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: What questions do you have about Oklahoma State to which we might be able to get answers?
SECOND: What aspect of this offense will present the most challenges for Baylor’s defense this weekend?
THIRD: Baylor’s rushing offense needs to get back on track this week to power the offense after the second half against Iowa State. Do you think it happens?
FOURTH: How long is Spencer Sanders going to play QB for Oklahoma State? Forever?
FIFTH: We’re going to wear white this week, right? We’re wearing some kind of white.