FIRST LOOK: #19 Oklahoma State Cowboys

By Mark C. Moore Sep 28, 2021, 2:41pm CDT

NCAA Football: Kansas State at Oklahoma State — This picture looks fake but is not.

MATCHUP: #21 Baylor Bears (4-0, 2-0) vs. #19 Oklahoma State Cowboys (4-0, 1-0)
LOCATION: Stillwater, Oklahoma
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys 2021
OPPONENT’S SB NATION BLOG: Cowboys Ride for Free (CRFF)
WEEKLY PRESS CONFERENCE: Oklahoma State
GAME NOTES (INCLUDING DEPTH CHART): Here
SPREAD: OSU -4, O/U 47.5
TV COVERAGE: ESPN2, 6:00 p.m. CST Saturday
WEATHER (IN STILLWATER): From Wunderground—High of 80 degrees, scattered thunderstorms all day, chance of rain 50%, around 77 degrees at game time, light winds.

How Did We Get Here?

Coming into this game, both teams sit at 4-0 overall, with Baylor having played (and won) 2 conference games to Oklahoma State’s 1. Baylor, of course, opened the season as follows:

Baylor 29, Texas State 20
Baylor 66, Texas Southern 7
Baylor 45, Kansas 7 (at KU)
Baylor 31, Iowa State 29.

On the other side, Oklahoma State’s season so far:

Oklahoma State 23, Missouri State 16
Oklahoma State 28, Tulsa 23
Oklahoma State 21, Boise State 20
Oklahoma State 31, Kansas State 20

That’s right; Oklahoma State has four wins this season by a combined total of 24 points with the largest win coming over a (then-ranked) Kansas State team missing its starting QB, Skylar Thompson. Still, 4-0 is 4-0.

Advanced Stats Overview:

First, let’s go straight to F+, SP+, and FEI:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State

Rk	Team	F+	OF+	Rk	DF+	Rk	FEI	Rk	SP+	Rk
Rk	Team	F+	OF+	Rk	DF+	Rk	FEI	Rk	SP+	Rk
23	Oklahoma State	0.85	0.38	45	1.19	13	0.5	20	9.9	35
26	Baylor	0.82	0.26	56	1.05	18	0.35	33	13	26

Breaking things down further, below are charts based off advanced data from collegefootballdata.com. To put this together, I pulled the data for the entire country into Excel, deleted counting stats columns (that basically aggregate advanced stats) because they’re useless, inserted sorted rankings for each major stat, then split things out between offense and defense. This is not Baylor O vs. OSU D or vice versa. This is both offense and both defenses, with their rankings listed being in the entire country (and the ranking is listed to the right of a given stat).

NOTE: These are not opponent-adjusted. This is raw data, and I had to make some assumptions with respect to rankings based on what is good or bad. “But Mark,” you’re saying, “unadjusted stats are meaningless!” We’re doing the best we can here, ok? Let me know if you have thoughts. Link here to the entire spreadsheet.

Week 5 Offense

Team	Plays	Drives	PPA	Rank	Success Rate	Rank	Explosiveness	Rank	Power Success	Rank	Stuff Rate	Rank	Line Yards	Rank	Second-Level Yards	Rank	Open-Field Yards	Rank	PPO	Rank	Havoc Rate Total	Rank	Havoc Rate Front 7	Rank	Havoc Rate DBs	Rank	Standard Downs Rate	Rank	Standard Downs PPA	Rank	Standard Downs Success Rate	Rank	Standard Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Downs Rate	Rank	Passing Downs PPA	Rank	Passing Downs Success Rate	Rank	Passing Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Rushing Plays Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays PPA	Rank	Rushing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Plays Rate	Rank	Passing Plays PPA	Rank	Passing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Passing Plays Explosiveness	Rank
Team	Plays	Drives	PPA	Rank	Success Rate	Rank	Explosiveness	Rank	Power Success	Rank	Stuff Rate	Rank	Line Yards	Rank	Second-Level Yards	Rank	Open-Field Yards	Rank	PPO	Rank	Havoc Rate Total	Rank	Havoc Rate Front 7	Rank	Havoc Rate DBs	Rank	Standard Downs Rate	Rank	Standard Downs PPA	Rank	Standard Downs Success Rate	Rank	Standard Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Downs Rate	Rank	Passing Downs PPA	Rank	Passing Downs Success Rate	Rank	Passing Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Rushing Plays Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays PPA	Rank	Rushing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Plays Rate	Rank	Passing Plays PPA	Rank	Passing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Passing Plays Explosiveness	Rank
Baylor	215	37	0.4917	3	0.5395	3	1.3013	50	1.0000	1	0.0977	118	3.9526	5	3.2836	17	7.5938	78	4.5357	30	0.1240	20	0.1085	64	0.0155	2	0.7535	7	0.5213	2	0.6049	3	1.2430	16	0.2465	124	0.4014	53	0.3396	48	1.6186	107	0.6186	14	0.5214	2	0.5489	9	1.2766	11	0.3814	117	0.4436	28	0.5244	13	1.3432	102
Oklahoma State	276	54	0.2079	68	0.3986	95	1.3114	44	0.7778	57	0.1835	48	2.6709	111	2.4545	114	7.9474	69	3.7727	74	0.1775	88	0.1341	108	0.0435	41	0.6196	120	0.1569	65	0.4737	72	1.0489	62	0.3804	11	0.2909	85	0.2762	96	2.0445	48	0.5725	27	0.0775	100	0.3987	93	0.9094	86	0.4239	102	0.4142	37	0.4017	85	1.8501	20

Week 5 Defense

Team	Plays	Drives	PPA	Rank	Success Rate	Rank	Explosiveness	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	Stuff Rate	Rank	Line Yards	Rank	Second-Level Yards	Rank	Open-Field Yards	Rank	PPO	Rank	Havoc Rate Total	Rank	Havoc Rate Front 7	Rank	Havoc Rate DBs	Rank	Standard Downs Rate	Rank	Standard Downs PPA	Rank	Standard Downs Success Rate	Rank	Standard Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Downs Rate	Rank	Passing Downs PPA	Rank	Passing Downs Success Rate	Rank	Passing Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Rushing Plays	Rank	Rushing Plays PPA	Rank	Rushing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Plays Rate	Rank	Passing Plays PPA	Rank	Passing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Passing Plays Explosiveness	Rank
Team	Plays	Drives	PPA	Rank	Success Rate	Rank	Explosiveness	Rank	Power Success Rate	Rank	Stuff Rate	Rank	Line Yards	Rank	Second-Level Yards	Rank	Open-Field Yards	Rank	PPO	Rank	Havoc Rate Total	Rank	Havoc Rate Front 7	Rank	Havoc Rate DBs	Rank	Standard Downs Rate	Rank	Standard Downs PPA	Rank	Standard Downs Success Rate	Rank	Standard Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Downs Rate	Rank	Passing Downs PPA	Rank	Passing Downs Success Rate	Rank	Passing Downs Explosiveness	Rank	Rushing Plays	Rank	Rushing Plays PPA	Rank	Rushing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Rushing Plays Explosiveness	Rank	Passing Plays Rate	Rank	Passing Plays PPA	Rank	Passing Plays Success Rate	Rank	Passing Plays Explosiveness	Rank
Oklahoma State	271	51	0.0861	31	0.3948	51	1.1283	39	0.6667	31	0.1230	108	2.8910	60	2.2368	12	12.0000	103	2.6667	16	0.1808	59	0.1365	36	0.0443	109	0.6790	76	0.0740	49	0.4293	33	0.9662	47	0.3210	76	0.1119	25	0.3218	85	1.5854	110	0.4502	35	0.0517	42	0.3852	45	0.8445	24	0.5461	36	0.1418	34	0.4054	66	1.3505	40
Baylor	204	37	0.1480	54	0.3578	24	1.2809	85	1.0000	124	0.1078	116	3.2333	94	2.5294	30	10.0000	90	3.7647	80	0.1992	39	0.1434	29	0.0558	79	0.6471	36	0.1054	64	0.4242	30	1.0950	90	0.3529	36	0.2260	44	0.2361	17	1.8934	67	0.5000	70	0.1050	58	0.3529	27	1.0113	71	0.4706	88	0.2569	78	0.3646	34	1.6664	96

Individual Statistics:

OSU Passing

Rk	Player	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Rk	Player	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
1	Spencer Sanders	3	43	73	58.9	599	8.2	8.7	4	1	143.2
2	Shane Illingworth	1	22	40	55	315	7.9	7.3	1	1	124.4

OSU Rushing & Receiving

Rk	Player	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
Rk	Player	G	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	TD	Plays	Yds	Avg	TD
1	Jaylen Warren	4	79	387	4.9	4	7	117	16.7	0	86	504	5.9	4
2	Spencer Sanders	3	34	120	3.5	2					34	120	3.5	2
3	LD Brown	3	28	58	2.1	1	4	8	2	0	32	66	2.1	1
4	Dominic Richardson	3	11	28	2.5	0	2	2	1	0	13	30	2.3	0
5	Dezmon Jackson	2	6	20	3.3	0					6	20	3.3	0
6	Shane Illingworth	1	2	-7	-3.5	0					2	-7	-3.5	0
7	Braydon Johnson	1	1	13	13	0	2	2	1	0	3	15	5	0
8	Brennan Presley	4	1	-4	-4	0	11	178	16.2	1	12	174	14.5	1
9	Tay Martin	2					15	207	13.8	2	15	207	13.8	2
10	Jaden Bray	2					6	136	22.7	1	6	136	22.7	1
11	Rashod Owens	3					6	111	18.5	0	6	111	18.5	0
12	Bryson Green	2					5	57	11.4	1	5	57	11.4	1
13	Blaine Green	1					2	47	23.5	0	2	47	23.5	0
14	Braden Cassity	1					2	14	7	0	2	14	7	0
15	John Paul Richardson	1					2	11	5.5	0	2	11	5.5	0
16	Cale Cabbiness	1					1	24	24	0	1	24	24	0

OSU Defense

Rk	Player	G	Solo	Ast	Tot	Loss	Sk	Int	Yds	Avg	TD	PD	FR	Yds	TD	FF
Rk	Player	G	Solo	Ast	Tot	Loss	Sk	Int	Yds	Avg	TD	PD	FR	Yds	TD	FF
1	Malcolm Rodriguez	4	28	15	43	3	0					1	1		1	2
2	Kolby Harvell-Peel	4	13	13	26	2.5	0	2	1	0.5	0	1
3	Devin Harper	4	13	9	22	2.5	1.5					1	2			0
4	Jarrick Bernard	4	14	2	16	0	0					4
5	Christian Holmes	4	11	4	15	0	1					1
6	Tanner McCalister	4	9	5	14	0	0
7	Brock Martin	4	4	9	13	4.5	2.5
8	Tyler Lacy	4	8	2	10	3.5	1.5									1
9	Jason Taylor ll	3	8	1	9	0	0
10	Jayden Jernigan	3	7	1	8	1	0									1
11	Korie Black	4	6	2	8	0	0					1	1			0
12	Collin Oliver	4	3	5	8	1.5	0.5
13	Trey Sterling	2	3	5	8	0.5	0
14	Israel Antwine	3	3	3	6	2	1
15	Thomas Harper	3	4	2	6	0.5	0
16	Brendon Evers	4	1	4	5	0.5	0
17	Kamryn Farrar	2	4	1	5	1	1
18	Demarco Jones	2	1	3	4	0	0
19	Jabbar Muhammad	2	3	1	4	0.5	0.5
20	Sione Asi	3	3	0	3	0	0
21	Lamont Bishop	2	3	0	3	1	1
22	Mason Cobb	2	2	0	2	1	1
23	Tyren Irby	2	0	2	2	0.5	0.5
24	Jeff Roberson	1	1	1	2	0	0
25	Sean Michael Flanagan	1	0	1	1	0	0
26	Bryson Green	2	1	0	1	0	0
27	Aden Kelley	1	0	1	1	0	0
28	Ben Kopenski	1	1	0	1	1	1
29	Nathan Latu	1	1	0	1	1	0
30	Nickolas Martin	1	1	0	1	0	0
31	Dominic Richardson	3	1	0	1	0	0
32	Jake Schultz	1	0	1	1	0	0
33	Samuela Tuihalamaka	1	1	0	1	1	0
34	Kody Walterscheid	2	1	0	1	0	0

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: What questions do you have about Oklahoma State to which we might be able to get answers?
SECOND: What aspect of this offense will present the most challenges for Baylor’s defense this weekend?
THIRD: Baylor’s rushing offense needs to get back on track this week to power the offense after the second half against Iowa State. Do you think it happens?
FOURTH: How long is Spencer Sanders going to play QB for Oklahoma State? Forever?
FIFTH: We’re going to wear white this week, right? We’re wearing some kind of white.