10/10/6 BAYLOR (8–1, 5–1) vs. 4/4/8 Oklahoma State (10–0, 7–0)
Nov. 21, 2015 | 6:30 p.m. CT
Stillwater, Okla. | Boone Pickens Stadium (60,218)
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OPPONENT: Oklahoma State Cowboys
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: Oklahoma State Cowboys Advanced Stats Profile
SB NATION BLOG: Cowboys Ride For Free, at right
FIRST LOOK: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
OURDAILYPODCAST: Peter Rides Solo
ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
SPREAD: -2.5 (Open: PK - we didn’t have a thread this week)
TV COVERAGE: FOX, 6:30 p.m. CST Saturday
WEATHER FORECAST: Clear and Cold, high of 49°, light winds (wunderground puts game time temp at 37°)
BAYLOR UNIFORMS: White-white-green with a kneeling Cowboy on the helmet. BNation.com Oklahoma State Preview
Bears vs. Cowboys Coverage
The Big News:
The game is in Stillwater, of course, against an undefeated foe in the Oklahoma State Cowboys. I apologize that I haven't been around as much this week to help prepare for it, but that's just the way the cookie crumbles.
It looks like Jarrett Stidham will start for the Bears today, but don't be surprised if you see Chris Johnson get a little run in obvious QB run situations as a way to keep Stidham from taking extra unnecessary hits. That would, interestingly enough, mirror Oklahoma State's own strategy of bringing in JW Walsh as a change-of-pace from Mason Rudolph.
I find it extremely interesting that the line has moved so much in the last couple of days toward the Bears. Some of that probably reflects the fact that Stidham will play, making Baylor better, but the game is still in Stillwater, after all. If you subscribe to the maxim that a home team gets 3 points in a normal game, that makes Baylor a 5.5-point favorite? I don't know how much I buy that.
Take a gander while you've got a chance over at Peter's Advanced Stats post this week. I'll give you the highlights below.
|Overall F/+ Rk||7 (39.4%)
|Overall FEI Rk||16 (.162)
|Overall S&P+ Rk||7 (17.5)
|Field Position Advantage||63
The advanced stats reflect the fact that this game should be really close, with a slight edge to OSU based on location.
It is 42 degrees in Stillwater as of this writing and projected to be 37 by the start of the game. By the end, it could be in the 20s. That makes this the first cold weather game of our season so far, and that could play a big role. It seemingly has in the past.
Thoughts on the Game:
For the second week in a row, I didn't get a chance to do a full-blown Preview/Prediction post, so I'll share a Keys to the Game here:
- Limit Big Plays: The dirty little secret of OSU's offense this year is that they don't run the ball well at all outside of when Walsh is in, and they are extremely dependent on big plays. The only real differences, it seemed to me, between OSU's dominating win over WVU and TCU's win over WVU just before, is that OSU was able to rattle Treyvone Boykin and actually complete those long passes that the Mountaineers dropped. That's not to discount OSU at all; I'm saying that if we can limit some of those long plays, we should have more success against OSU's offense than others have. Just look at what ISU did a week ago to see what I mean.
- Protect Jarrett Stidham: Because Emmanuel Ogbah is really good, and OSU saw what OU did a week ago to our freshman QB. I would expect to see another week emphasizing the running game, for better or worse, and as many max protect situations with LaQuan McGowan in the backfield as it takes to keep Stidham off the ground. This one was on my list last week, and we obviously didn't do a great job.
- Contain J.W. Walsh: James Washington aside, Walsh is the X-factor for OSU's offense, which has gotten better as they've accepted the unconventional 2-QB system with him and Rudolph. Baylor is susceptible to running QBs. That much is perfectly clear this season. If we want to win, we have to contain this one.
- Don't Let OU Beat You Twice: Last week is over. We can't change what happened. Baylor has to come out confident and ready to play against a team that has weaknesses.
My Prediction: Baylor 35, Oklahoma State 31.
I can't go against my Bears.
LINKS LINKS LINKS LINKS LINKS LINKS:
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 2015: Start time, live stream, TV schedule and 3 things to know - SBNation.com
November is still hot in Big 12 country. Here's how you can tune in to watch the Bears and Cowboys, and what to watch for.
Five key matchups for college football's biggest Week 12 games
There's three huge matchups in college football for Week 12. Here are the keys to victory when Ohio State hosts Michigan State in the Big Ten and Big 12 showdowns between Oklahoma State-Baylor and TCU-Oklahoma.
How Baylor can finally win in Stillwater and keep playoff door cracked | FOX Sports
How Baylor can finally win in Stillwater and keep playoff door cracked
Oklahoma State football must deal with Baylor before Bedlam hits | Newsday
Before dream Bedlam matchup, No. 4 Oklahoma State must handle No. 10 Baylor
Baylor to wear #StillwaterStrong helmet decal vs. Oklahoma State - CBSSports.com
Baylor will pay honor to those affected by the October homecoming parade tragedy in Stillwater with a special helmet decal.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State 2015 odds: Bears, Cowboys pegged as pick'em - SBNation.com
Oklahoma State hopes to remain the only undefeated team in the Big 12 this Saturday with a win at home in a pick'em against the Baylor Bears.
OSU’s 2-headed QB makes Baylor’s preparations harder - WacoTrib.com: Baylor Bears Football
Two-quarterback systems rarely work but Oklahoma State is the exception.
Priceless nickel: Travon Blanchard brings athleticism, instincts to Baylor D - WacoTrib.com: Baylor Bears Football
When Baylor nickelback Travon Blanchard steps out on the field, his teammates feel an instant surge of energy.
John Werner’s picks: Stillwater still sour for Bears; OU downs TCU; Buckeyes stay unbeaten - WacoTrib.com: Baylor Bears Football
It doesn’t seem to matter if Baylor brings a great team or a bad one to Stillwater: The results are always the same.
TWEETS TWEETS TWEETS TWEETS TWEETS TWEETS:
Only 2 teams have gained at least 1 first down on every opening drive this year: #UNC and Baylor.— David Hale (@DavidHaleESPN) November 21, 2015
#SicOSU GAMEDAY. ⏰ 6:30 p.m. CT FOX ESPN Central Texas / https://t.co/26WIL1JNup @BUFootball pic.twitter.com/OyqOVXGPEh— Baylor Football (@BUFootball) November 21, 2015
Gameday.— Jarrett Stidham (@Jarrett_Stidham) November 21, 2015
All that needs to be said, really.