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First Look: Oklahoma State Cowboys

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Time to take our first look at the next opponent on the Bears' slate: The Oklahoma State Cowboys

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
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10/10/6 BAYLOR (8–1, 5–1) vs. 4/4/8 Oklahoma State (10–0, 7–0)
Nov. 21, 2015 | 6:30 p.m. CT
Stillwater, Okla. | Boone Pickens Stadium (60,218)

TV: FOX
Watch |  Listen | Gametracker Gametracker | Game Notes Notes

OPPONENT: Oklahoma State Cowboys
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.okstate.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 Oklahoma State Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
ADVANCED STATS PROFILE: Oklahoma State Cowboys Advanced Stats Profile
LAST MEETING: 49–28 Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: W; OkSt 35, Iowa State 31
SB NATION BLOG: Cowboys Ride For Free, at right
SPREAD: PK (Open: PK - we didn’t have a thread this week)
TV COVERAGE: FOX, 6:30 p.m. CST Saturday WEATHER FORECAST: Clear and Cold, high of 49°, light winds (wunderground puts game time temp at 37°)

SBNation.com Oklahoma State Preview
baylorbears.com Preview
Bears vs. Cowboys Coverage

Out of the Frying Pan, Into The Fire?

Last week the Bears faced off against Oklahoma, the team probably playing the best, most complete football in the conference at this point in the season. This week, the Bears play Oklahoma State, the team that is arguably playing the second best football in the conference. The Cowboys are undefeated and have the inside track on a spot in the College Football Playoff, should things shake out favorably for them. Add to that the fact that the Bears haven’t won in Stillwater the day Bill Snyder was born: October 7, 1939. Granted, there’s a big gap in there, but still. That’s a long time.

There’s some good news and some bad news about the trip to Stillwater: the bad news is that we got the night game slot. It’s going to be COLD. According to Wunderground, it’s going to be 37° at game time and just get colder from there. The good news is that there’s no precipitation of any kind in the forecast, and there isn’t even supposed to be much wind. So… cold, but none of the stuff that’s been a real problem in the past. Can this be the year that the Bears finally get off the schneid in Stillwater? Will Stidham be fully healthy or will his back hamper him? How will the defensive line fare, given all of the injuries? Speaking of that…

Injury Update

If you didn’t see it yesterday in the Meet the Press thread, Stidham had an MRI on his back that came back negative. He’s just really sore, but apparently getting better by the day. Who knows if he’ll be absolutely 100% on Saturday? Only time will tell. As far as the other reported injuries, this was the latest at the press conference yesterday:

Of course, we’ll keep you posted if we find out any more information.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 2015 Schedule

September
@ Central Michigan Chippewas Thursday, September 03 2015 win 24–13 coverage
Central Arkansas Bears Saturday, September 12 2015 win 32–8 coverage
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners Saturday, September 19 2015 win 69–14 coverage
@ Texas Longhorns Saturday, September 26 2015 win 30–27 coverage
October
Kansas State Wildcats Saturday, October 03 2015 win 36–34 coverage
@ West Virginia Mountaineers Saturday, October 10 2015 win 33–26 coverage
Kansas Jayhawks Saturday, October 24 2015 win 58–10 coverage
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday, October 31 2015 win 70–53 coverage
November
TCU Horned Frogs Saturday, November 07 2015 win 49–29 coverage
@ Iowa St. Cyclones Saturday, November 14 2015 win 35–31 coverage
Baylor Bears Saturday, November 21 2015 7:30 PM EST coverage
Oklahoma Sooners Friday, November 27 2015 7:00 PM EST coverage

This has been a really interesting year for Oklahoma State. They’ve struggled at times with some opponents that you wouldn’t think they would have trouble with. They required the weirdest botched punt ever to beat Texas, played Kansas State and West Virginia incredibly close in consecutive weeks. They pulled away from Texas Tech late and put together an impressive performance against TCU 10 days ago. They looked like they were really figuring things out, and then along came the Cyclones. The Cowboys trailed the game 24–7 at one point, and it wasn’t until 3:06 left in the 4th quarter that Oklahoma State took the lead. Despite two possessions Iowa State couldn’t mount a response. Which team shows up in Stillwater for the Cowboys on Saturday? My bet is that having survived the scare in Ames, they will be ready for the Bears.

Take a look at this state for the Cowboys in 2015:

Either that’s incredible, or ESPN’s win probability isn’t very good. Either way, I sure hope that Briles & Son, Inc. are paying close attention. If you get up, do not let your foot off the gas in this game. The Cowboys will come roaring back at ya.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 2015 Individual Stats

Once again, the individual stats produced below come from Bill Connelly’s Advanced Statistical Profile page, which can be found in the link block above. Check it out. It’s neat.

Passing Statistics

Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Mason Rudolph 6’4, 220 SO 219 340 3161 18 8 64.4% 21 5.8% 8.5
J.W. Walsh 6’2, 215 SR 22 28 335 10 0 78.6% 0 0.0% 12.0
Taylor Cornelius 6’6, 190 FR 2 5 8 0 0 40.0% 2 28.6% –1.1

Sophomore Mason Rudolph played his first game in last year’s blackout game at McLane Stadium (side note: can we please have a blackout game that doesn’t feature torrential downpour? That’d be really nice.) and it immediately became apparent that he was the frontrunner for the starting job in 2015. Though he struggled at spots this season, he’s largely retained the job and has performed admirably over the past few weeks. J.W. Walsh still featured in the offense from time to time, mostly as a running threat. Fantastic.

Individual Rushing Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
(Lost)
Chris Carson RB 6’2, 202 JR 108 446 4 4.1 3.4 37.0% 0 (0)
Rennie Childs RB 5’10, 205 JR 62 259 2 4.2 3.9 38.7% 0 (0)
J.W. Walsh QB 6’2, 215 SR 50 226 10 4.5 7.4 28.0% 1 (0)
Raymond Taylor RB 5’8, 195 JR 41 262 4 6.4 6.3 43.9% 0 (0)
Mason Rudolph QB 6’4, 220 SO 34 133 1 3.9 6.2 38.2% 6 (2)
Jeff Carr RB 5’7, 168 FR 33 136 1 4.1 4.6 27.3% 1 (0)
Brandon Sheperd WR 6’1, 195 SR 7 39 0 5.6 2.8 57.1% 0 (0)
Jalen McCleskey WR 5’10, 156 FR 4 25 0 6.3 3.3 75.0% 4 (1)
Taylor Cornelius QB 6’6, 190 FR 2 21 0 10.5 3.5 100.0% 0 (0)
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Like I mentioned before, J.W. Walsh is the "backup" QB but serves more as the Oklahoma State version of the mobile QB. He can still throw it, as shown by his game-winning touchdown pass against Iowa State last Saturday. But by and large, Walsh is there for mobility, and given Baylor’s history with mobile quarterbacks, you can bet that they will attempt to use Walsh to great effect this Saturday night.

I can’t say that I’ve watched the rest of Oklahoma State’s running back corps very closely this season, so I’m relying on the stats fairly heavily here. Walsh is their primary rushing threat inside the red zone, being the only player with over 5 rushing touchdowns. Beyond that, nobody else has 500 rushing yards on the season. That’s a bit unusual to me for a team that’s 10–0 at this point in the season. They do, however, like to air it out a bit more than running it.

Individual Receiving Stats

Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate Target
Rate
James Washington WR 6’0, 200 SO 72 40 820 7 17.8 9.9 55.6% 19.7%
David Glidden WR 5’8, 185 SR 63 45 714 3 15.9 11.3 71.4% 17.2%
Marcell Ateman WR 6’4, 210 JR 50 33 590 5 17.9 11.8 66.0% 13.7%
Brandon Sheperd WR 6’1, 195 SR 31 16 263 3 16.4 8.5 51.6% 8.5%
Austin Hays WR 6’2, 190 JR 26 20 165 1 8.3 6.4 76.9% 7.1%
Jalen McCleskey WR 5’10, 156 FR 21 20 285 2 14.3 13.6 95.2% 5.7%
Jhajuan Seales WR 6’2, 198 JR 21 12 164 1 13.7 7.8 57.1% 5.7%
Blake Jarwin TE 6’5, 242 JR 19 14 190 2 13.6 10.0 73.7% 5.2%
Chris Lacy WR 6’3, 195 SO 13 8 120 2 15.0 9.2 61.5% 3.6%
Chris Carson RB 6’2, 202 JR 13 9 72 0 8.0 5.5 69.2% 3.6%
Jeff Carr RB 5’7, 168 FR 12 9 40 2 4.4 3.3 75.0% 3.3%
Jeremy Seaton FB 6’2, 250 SR 9 6 70 2 11.7 7.8 66.7% 2.5%
Rennie Childs RB 5’10, 205 JR 6 6 65 0 10.8 10.8 100.0% 1.6%
Kameron Doolittle WR 5’8, 200 SR 2 1 3 0 3.0 1.5 50.0% 0.5%
Raymond Taylor RB 5’8, 195 JR 1 1 13 0 13.0 13.0 100.0% 0.3%

James Washington is the man you need to watch in this group. He’s emerged as the go-to threat for Mason Rudolph and had a massive game against TCU. He was quieter against the Cyclones last Saturday, but he’s still the man that gets the most targets. Senior David Gladden has fewer targets but more catches and remains a potent threat that the Bears will have to contend with. He gets the ball fewer times, but his yards per target numbers suggest that he is more productive with those targets than Washington. Regardless, both are serious threats.

The Cowboys like to spread the ball around, though, with 7 different receivers with at least 20 targets apiece. This is a stacked WR corps, and you can bet that they’re going to test Baylor’s secondary early and often in this game.

Individual Defensive Statistics

Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Jordan Sterns S 6’1, 205 JR 68.5 10.9% 1.0 0.0 1 3 1 0
Jordan Burton LB 6’3, 215 JR 58.5 9.3% 7.5 2.5 1 0 0 0
Tre Flowers S 6’3, 190 SO 57.5 9.2% 2.0 0.0 2 5 1 0
Chad Whitener LB 6’1, 240 SO 49.0 7.8% 6.0 2.0 2 0 1 0
Emmanuel Ogbah DE 6’4, 275 JR 42.0 6.7% 15.5 11.0 0 2 2 0
Seth Jacobs LB 6’2, 225 JR 37.0 5.9% 6.0 0.0 2 1 0 0
Vincent Taylor DT 6’3, 300 SO 29.0 4.6% 7.5 4.0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Peterson CB 5’11, 190 SR 24.5 3.9% 3.5 0.0 1 5 0 0
Jimmy Bean DE 6’5, 250 SR 22.5 3.6% 10.5 5.5 0 0 0 0
Devante Averette LB 6’0, 230 JR 22.5 3.6% 3.5 2.0 2 0 0 1
Ashton Lampkin CB 5’11, 185 JR 22.0 3.5% 1.0 0.0 0 5 0 0
Michael Hunter CB 6’0, 191 SR 15.5 2.5% 0.0 0.0 2 1 0 0
Miketavius Jones CB 5’10, 175 SR 13.5 2.2% 2.5 2.5 0 0 1 0
Ramon Richards CB 6’0, 180 SO 13.5 2.2% 1.0 0.0 2 2 1 0
Motekiai Maile DT 6’4, 305 JR 13.0 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Kirk Tucker LB 6’2, 195 SO 12.5 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Jordan Brailford DE 6’3, 240 FR 12.0 1.9% 2.5 1.0 0 0 0 0
Darrion Daniels DT 6’3, 320 FR 12.0 1.9% 2.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Jerel Morrow S 6’0, 190 SO 12.0 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Trace Clark DE 6’4, 257 SR 11.5 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Ryan Simmons LB 6’0, 240 SR 11.5 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Deric Robertson S 6’2, 205 JR 10.5 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 1
Kenneth Edison-McGruder S 6’2, 205 FR 9.5 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Darius Curry CB 6’1, 195 SO 8.5 1.4% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Gyasi Akem LB 6’1, 215 SO 6.5 1.0% 1.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

If there’s one name you pay attention to on this list, it should be Emmanuel Ogbah. Ogbah is arguably the best defensive end in the conference. After a rough first half against Iowa State, Ogbah practically built a home in Iowa State’s backfield, harassing, hurrying, and sacking Joel Lanning the entire second half. He was credited with seven tackles, two sacks, and two QB hurries in the game. As Ogbah goes, so goes the Cowboys defense. If the Bears can neutralize him, they will make Jarrett Stidham’s day much, much easier. If not, this could be another tough one for the true freshman QB.

2015 Oklahoma State Cowboys Team Stats and Rankings

Statistic National
Rank
Conference
Rank
Value National Leader Value Conference
Leader
Value
3rd Down Conversion Pct (127 ranked) 21 5 0.459 Texas Tech 0.535 Texas Tech 0.535
3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense (127 ranked) 57 3 0.377 Clemson 0.210 TCU 0.291
4th Down Conversion Pct (127 ranked) 1 1 1.000 Oklahoma St. 1.000 Oklahoma St. 1.000
4th Down Conversion Pct Defense (127 ranked) 95 8 0.579 Penn St. 0.167 Baylor
Oklahoma
0.400
0.400
Blocked Kicks (68 ranked) 34 1 2 Temple 6 Baylor
Oklahoma St.
2
2
Blocked Kicks Allowed (127 ranked) 98 10 3 35 teams tied 0 4 teams tied 0
Blocked Punts (23 ranked) 23 1 1 Temple 5 Oklahoma St.
Baylor
1
1
Blocked Punts Allowed (125 ranked) 1 1 0 69 teams tied 0 8 teams tied 0
Completion Percentage (127 ranked) 20 2 0.652 Western Ky. 0.732 Oklahoma 0.704
Defensive TDs (30 ranked) 3 1 5 Buffalo 7 Oklahoma St. 5
Fewest Penalties (127 ranked) 60 4 61 Navy 30 Iowa St.
Kansas St.
53
53
Fewest Penalties Per Game (127 ranked) 61 4 6.10 Navy 3.33 Iowa St. 5.30
Fewest Penalty Yards (127 ranked) 64 3 540 Navy 262 Kansas St. 405
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game (127 ranked) 62 3 54.00 Navy 29.11 Iowa St. 44.40
First Downs Defense (127 ranked) 68 6 205 Boston College 127 West Virginia 192
First Downs Offense (127 ranked) 20 5 245 Texas Tech 318 Texas Tech 318
Fumbles Lost (127 ranked) 17 2 4 7 teams tied 2 TCU 2
Fumbles Recovered (126 ranked) 16 2 9 4 teams tied 12 Baylor 10
Kickoff Return Defense (127 ranked) 82 7 22.09 Ga. Southern 13.89 Kansas St. 16.69
Kickoff Returns (127 ranked) 71 6 20.85 Tennessee 38.80 West Virginia 25.15
Net Punting (127 ranked) 57 7 37.98 Colorado St. 43.41 Oklahoma 42.05
Passes Had Intercepted (127 ranked) 50 3 8 Navy 1 Texas 5
Passes Intercepted (125 ranked) 7 2 15 Arkansas St. 21 West Virginia 16
Passing Offense (127 ranked) 7 3 353.0 Washington St. 414.4 Texas Tech 391.3
Passing Yards Allowed (127 ranked) 80 5 235.5 San Jose St. 144.4 Oklahoma 186.4
Passing Yards per Completion (127 ranked) 11 2 14.41 Army West Point 21.67 Baylor 17.09
Punt Return Defense (127 ranked) 34 5 5.63 UCLA –0.50 Oklahoma 0.70
Punt Returns (127 ranked) 79 6 7.14 Texas A&M 20.00 Iowa St. 16.68
Red Zone Defense (127 ranked) 47 4 0.806 Toledo 0.571 Kansas 0.761
Red Zone Offense (127 ranked) 7 1 0.938 Navy 0.976 Oklahoma St. 0.938
Rushing Defense (127 ranked) 54 3 157.5 Boston College 71.7 Oklahoma 149.7
Rushing Offense (127 ranked) 94 9 144.6 Ga. Southern 378.9 Baylor 292.2
Sacks Allowed (126 ranked) 76 4 2.30 Air Force 0.00 TCU 1.20
Scoring Defense (127 ranked) 51 2 24.5 Wisconsin 12.3 Oklahoma 19.7
Scoring Offense (127 ranked) 7 5 43.6 Baylor 54.8 Baylor 54.8
Tackles for Loss Allowed (127 ranked) 65 4 6.00 Toledo 3.22 Texas Tech 4.27
Team Passing Efficiency (127 ranked) 9 3 165.22 Baylor 194.21 Baylor 194.21
Team Passing Efficiency Defense (127 ranked) 37 3 117.67 Marshall 92.44 Oklahoma 104.68
Team Sacks (127 ranked) 5 2 3.50 Penn St. 4.20 Oklahoma 3.60
Team Tackles for Loss (126 ranked) 8 2 8.0 Boston College 9.8 Baylor 8.1
Time of Possession (127 ranked) 70 6 29:37 Stanford 35:57 Kansas St. 32:39
Total Defense (127 ranked) 61 3 393.0 Boston College 236.5 Oklahoma 336.1
Total Offense (127 ranked) 18 5 497.6 Baylor 637.9 Baylor 637.9
Turnover Margin (127 ranked) 5 1 1.20 Houston 1.80 Oklahoma St. 1.20
Turnovers Gained (127 ranked) 5 1 24 Houston
Arkansas St.
27
27
Oklahoma St. 24
Turnovers Lost (127 ranked) 20 1 12 Navy
LSU
5
5
Oklahoma St.
TCU
Texas
12
12
12
Winning Percentage (126 ranked) 1 1 1.000 5 teams tied 1.000 Oklahoma St. 1.000

It’s Question Time!

FIRST: How are you feeling after the tough loss to Oklahoma last week?
SECOND: What was your favorite sign from GameDay that you saw?
THIRD: What scares you the most about this weekend’s matchup with Oklahoma State?
FOURTH: What do you think the uniform prediction will be this week?