3/4 BAYLOR (4–0, 1–0) vs. NR/NR Kansas (0–4, 0–1)
Oct. 10, 2015 | 11 a.m. CT
Lawrence, Kan. | Memorial Stadium (50,071)
|Watch | Listen | Gametracker | Notes | Tickets|
OPPONENT: Kansas Jayhawks
ODB GAME HUB: Baylor Bears vs. Kansas Jayhawks 2015
MEET THE PRESS: Baylor vs. Kansas
OFFICIAL WEBSITE: www.kuathletics.com
MEDIA GUIDE: 2015 Kansas Football Media Guide (Click here for roster)
LAST MEETING: 60–14 Baylor | ODB Game Hub
LAST GAME: L; Iowa State 38, Kansas 13
SB NATION BLOG: Rock Chalk Talk, at right
SPREAD: Baylor –44 (Open: Baylor –38)
TV COVERAGE: Fox Sports 1, 11:00 a.m. CDT
WEATHER FORECAST: Sunny, high of 76°, Winds S at 10–20mph. (wunderground puts temp at 62° at game time)
BAYLOR UNIFORMS: No official word yet, announced Friday
Mea Culpa and Advanced Stats
First: These posts usually drop on Tuesdays and serve as our 10,000 foot level view of the field here. I could make an excuse that I got busy and didn’t get around to this, but that wouldn’t be true. I started looking at them yesterday and, quite frankly, got sorta depressed. As you will see, Kansas is historically bad. I got bogged down in that and had a hard time putting anything on "paper." So, here we are.
Consequently, I’ve decided to combine this week’s First Look with the Advanced Stats Line Play post that I did last week for Tech to give you both in one. The stats are pretty ugly, and the Bears are squaring up against a true freshman QB in his first start. It’s incredibly difficult to predict what will happen there, and stats are no help.
I’m also at a point where I’m struggling with S&P+. If you weren’t aware, Bill Connelly removed all preseason projections from his S&P+ ranking, and that dropped us from 18th in the rankings to 39th this week. Because the rankings are fairly volatile this early in the season and because FEI has not yet released offensive/defensive data (and won’t for another 2 weeks), we’ll hold off on the full-blown advanced stats preview for now. We are, however, looking to have Bill on the podcast to talk briefly about what he’s seeing there. Stay tuned for more news on that front.
All of the QB Injuries
The news dropped yesterday that Kansas would be without both their starting quarterback, Montell Cozart, and his backup, Deondre Ford. True Freshman Ryan Willis will take the reigns of the Kansas offense on Saturday morning. Interestingly, our SB Nation brethren over at Rock Chalk Talk seem to think that Willis is the best quarterback on their roster.
@OurDailyBears i dont think this news makes much of a difference. Willis is our best guy at QB to be honest.— rockchalktalk (@rockchalktalk) October 5, 2015
We’ll talk more about this situation in just a bit.
Kansas Jayhawks 2015 Schedule
|Saturday, September 05 2015||loss 38–41||coverage|
|Saturday, September 12 2015||loss 23–55||coverage|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||Saturday, September 26 2015||loss 14–27||coverage|
|@ Iowa St. Cyclones||Saturday, October 03 2015||loss 13–38||coverage|
|Saturday, October 10 2015||12:00 PM EDT||coverage|
|Saturday, October 17 2015||12:00 PM EDT||coverage|
|@ Oklahoma State Cowboys||Friday, October 23 2015||8:00 PM EDT||coverage|
|Friday, October 30 2015||8:00 PM EDT||coverage|
|@ Texas Longhorns||Saturday, November 07 2015||8:00 PM EST||coverage|
|@ TCU Horned Frogs||Friday, November 13 2015||7:00 PM EST||coverage|
|Friday, November 20 2015||7:00 PM EST||coverage|
|Friday, November 27 2015||7:00 PM EST||coverage|
Kansas Jayhawks 2015 Individual Stats
Well, here we are. These stats mean absolutely nothing to us at this point. Cozart is out. Ford is gone. True freshman Ryan Willis has a 44.4% completion percentage and 100 yards passing total. On eighteen attempts. Willis was a 3-star QB out of Mission, Kansas. According to his 247 Sports profile, he’s a pro-style quarterback. Interesting.
This could be a Mason-Rudolph-the-unknown-is-what-kills-you sort of a situation, where Ryan Willis just comes out of nowhere to absolutely dominate. We've seen that on multiple occasions in the past. I don't think that will happen this time around, but if Baylor walks into this game unprepared or overconfident, it's entirely possible.
Rushing & Receiving Stats
|10||Steven Sims Jr.||1||–9||–9.0||0||10||98||9.8||0||11||89||8.1||0|
I’m not going to mince words here… Kansas’ offense is really bad. Their leading rusher has 110 more yards on the season than Shock Linwood had last week against Texas Tech alone. The team is 126th in the F/+ rankings thus far this season, out of 128 teams. Bill C.’s Advanced Statistical Profile for the Jayhawks doesn’t project a single win, not even giving them a double-digit percentage chance in any of the games remaining.
Advanced Statistical Profiles: Line Play
Normally here you’d see the NCAA Team Stats and KU’s relative position within those stats, but not this week. I got bogged down in looking at all of this yesterday and, given the massive disparity between the two squads’ respective statistical profiles, I’m opting to do my Line Play Advanced Stats Preview here in lieu of the rest of this post as normal. If you need a refresher on what each of these stats are, check out the first half of last week’s post for explanations of each stat.
When Baylor Has The Ball…
|ALY||51 (106.8)||120 (83.2)||BAYLOR|
|Std Downs LY||1 (4.47)||123 (3.52)||BAYLOR|
|Pass Downs LY||19 (4.09)||92 (3.61)||BAYLOR|
|Opp. Rate||1 (57.2%)||125 (46.3%)||BAYLOR|
|Power Succ. Rate||50 (70.6%)||118 (85.7%)||BAYLOR|
|Stuff Rate||4 (10.8%)||127 (11.2%)||BAYLOR|
|Adj. Sack Rate||12 (241.2)||91 (83.9)||BAYLOR|
|SD Sack Rate||19 (1.4%)||98 (3.1%)||BAYLOR|
|PD Sack Rate||1 (0%)||43 (8.3%)||BAYLOR|
|Front 7 Havoc Rate||–||127 (4.2%)||–|
When I first pulled the data from Football Outsiders, I was surprised by how solid the Jayhawk defensive line was. Then I realized my mistake: I’d actually copied Kansas State’s stats, not Kansas’. These are much more in line with what I’ve been thinking. You’ll notice that Baylor’s offensive line is ranked 51st in Adjusted Line Yards; that’s because it is an opponent-adjusted stat and probably is suffering from the hits that Baylor is taking in other strength of schedule-adjusted stats. Unfortunately, there’s nothing Baylor can do about this except keep destroying their opponents and hope that their opponents do likewise to theirs.
Otherwise, these stats speak for themselves. Baylor fields one of the best offensive lines in the country, while the Jayhawks have one of the worst. Barring any freak occurrences, Baylor should be able to impose their will against the Kansas front 7 all day long. Kansas is actually pretty decent in getting sacks on passing downs (ranking in the top 50), but the Bears still sit atop college football in this regard, having not given up a single sack on a passing down yet. That is incredibly impressive.
When Kansas Has The Ball…
|ALY||101 (92.6)||29 (114.3)||BAYLOR|
|Std Downs LY||113 (2.37)||16 (2.21)||BAYLOR|
|Pass Downs LY||31 (3.75)||117 (4.2)||KANSAS|
|Opp. Rate||110 (32.9%)||32 (33.3%)||BAYLOR|
|Power Succ. Rate||32 (76.9%)||122 (88.9%)||KANSAS|
|Stuff Rate||42 (17.4%)||26 (25.5%)||Baylor|
|Adj. Sack Rate||95 (78.6)||52 (109.6)||BAYLOR|
|SD Sack Rate||77 (5.3%)||43 (5.9%)||Baylor|
|PD Sack Rate||85 (8.2%)||26 (9.8%)||BAYLOR|
|Front 7 Havoc Rate||–||58 (9.6%)||–|
Oh hey look, good news for Kansas! They have massive advantages in Passing Down Line Yards and Power Success Rate! Baylor continues to struggle with short yardage situations, as well as giving up yardage to rushes on passing downs. Unfortunately for Kansas, the disparity in Passing Down Line Yards isn’t enough to create any realistic advantage: KU gains 3.75 yards per rush on a passing down, while Baylor gives up 4.2 yards per rush. And you have to get into short yardage situations for the power run game to come into play. That’s something I suspect that Kansas will struggle with on Saturday. Even if they do, I’m hopeful we’ll see some progress from Baylor on this front.
Beyond those two aspects, though, the stats are much the same as the other side of the ball: the field is fairly heavily slanted towards Baylor. IF the Bears come to play on Saturday and don’t take the weekend off, they should dominate Kansas up front all day long.