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Baylor Football Stats, Projections Through Week 12

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Our weekly look at the stats and projections for Baylor, as well as the records likely to fall and the individual performances that are making Bears fans proud!

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Baylor Bears are now 8-0 and ranked #5 in the latest BCS and coming off a dominant win over the Oklahoma Sooners last Thursday night. The CFB world can't stop talking about Baylor, nor should they. This team is really, really good.

Offensive Stats:

I liked the format of the last post I did for Baylor, so I'm going to repeat it. We're starting on the offensive side of the ball with the records, those big numbers placed in books that everybody wants to have. Baylor has several in its sights through 8 games in the 2013 season.

Below, the first number shows our current average in a given statistic. The next (perhaps 2) shows what we need to average over the next 6 games to break the record, which should be specified.

Baylor Points Per Game: 61.0
Needed for Total Points Record (OU 2008): 45.6 (ppg)
Needed for Points Per Game Record (Army 1944): 48.2 (ppg)

After scoring 41 points against the Sooners Thursday night, the Bears now have 488 on the season to our opponent's 123. The records, as always, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504—Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466—Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589—Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624—Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652—Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716—Oklahoma, 2008

That last one is the one everybody cares about, and the one I focus on in these posts, at least in terms of points for the season. Commenters correctly point out that OU had an extra game to work with in 2008, but you're making a distinction others will miss. If Baylor doesn't score the 228 points necessary to beat OU's record (717 > 716), nobody will care that we beat Texas' for a 13-game season. Thankfully, 228 points over 5 games is just 45.6 points per game. Scoring just 41 points against OU cost us exactly .6 points per game over our last 5. This is well within reach.

Army's record for points per game (56.0 in 1944) is the other I have my eye on, and it came in 9 games. Had they played 13, Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 241 more over 5 games, for an average of 48.2 points per game. Baylor can break both modern records, for points in a season and points per game, by scoring fewer than 7 touchdowns per game the rest of the way.

Baylor Yards Per Game: 686.0
Needed for Total Yards in a Season (2011 Houston): 579.8 (ypg)
Needed for Yards Per Game (1989 Houston): 527.4 (ypg)

Baylor's slow start against Oklahoma resulted in an offensive performance well below the expectations set this season of just 459 yards. OU deserves a lot of credit for that early in the game with the way they disruptced our passing offense. Adding that yardage to Baylor's season-to-date number yields a total of 5488 yards, which averages out to 686.0 yards per game. Over the course of an entire season, that would be a Baylor and NCAA record, breaking that of the 1989 Houston Cougars by about 60 yards per game (the old record is 624.9).

As I mentioned a week ago, there are actually two records at play for yards, just like points. The first is the aforementioned yards per game of the 1989 Cougars, who averaged 624.9 yards per game over 11 games. The second is total yards in a season, set at 8387 by the 2011 Houston Cougars. That record came in 14 games, something Baylor can't possibly get.

To break the former record (yards per game), Baylor needs 625 yards per game, or 8125 over 13 games. With 5488 yards already through 8 games, Baylor needs just 2637 over its last 5, or 527.4, to set a new record. That's going to happen.

To break the latter, Baylor needs 2899 over its final 5, or 579.8 yards per game. The closer that number gets to 600, the less likely it is to happen.

Baylor Yards Per Play: 8.6

The NCAA record for yards gained per play is currently held by the Hawaii's 2006 team at 8.6. After the Oklahoma game, Baylor is now tied with that mark. Projecting out over the course of the season is difficult to the point of absurdity because we don't know either variable in the equation: how many yards Baylor will get or how many plays it will take to do it.

With that in mind, what we can do is say that Baylor has run 635 plays so far this season, just over 79 per game. When we last did this, I anticipated that better defenses might hold us to fewer plays per game. Given that we had 80 against OU, the counter-assertion that we might actually run more plays against better teams because we'd have fewer explosive plays, generally, seems more plausible. Still, I have a hard time saying we'll have average around 80 plays per game going forward. Seems high. So we'll say 75 again.

75*5 = 375 plays remaining + 635 plays already run = 1010 total plays.
1010*8.7 (moving in tenths up from Hawaii's record) = 8787 yards.
8787 - 5488 = 3299 / 375 plays = 8.80 yards per play.

If you notice, that'd be a new NCAA record for total yards by a lot.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

Scoring Offense: 1
Total Offense: 1
Rushing Offense: 9
Passing Offense: 3
Yards/Completion: 1
Team Passing Efficiency: 1
3rd Down Conversion %: 8
First Downs: 14
Fewest Offensive 3 & Outs: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Summary

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 8 20.3 30.8 65.9 389.1 3.0 48.9 296.5 6.1 4.5 79.6 685.6 8.6 13.4 14.8 1.5 29.6 8.0 74.6 0.8 0.5 1.3
Defense 8 13.6 30.9 44.1 173.9 1.0 44.1 132.3 3.0 0.8 75.0 306.1 4.1 6.9 7.3 2.5 16.6 6.5 56.3 0.8 1.4 2.1
Difference +6.7 -0.1 +21.8 +215.2 +2.0 +4.8 +164.2 +3.1 +3.7 +4.6 +379.5 +4.5 +6.5 +7.5 -1.0 +13.0 +1.5 +18.3 0.0 -0.9 -0.8
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/11/2013.

I have to remind everyone once again that Sports-Reference's numbers aren't official, which is why you might see a little bit of a disparity. They're close enough.

The Quarterbacks:

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 136 203 67.0 2667 13.1 15.0 21 1 210.5
2 Seth Russell 26 43 60.5 427 9.9 8.2 3 3 152.9
3 Levi Norwood 1 1 100.0 41 41.0 41.0 0 0 444.4
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/11/2013.

Seth Russell's stats haven't changed since Kansas and aren't likely to for a while with Baylor now firmly in the tougher portion of our scheduled. Petty's numbers, however, are awesome. Here's his projection with OU's data in the mix.

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2013 Baylor Big 12 JR QB 136 203 67.0 2667 13.13 15.0 21 1 210.5
Projected Baylor 221 330 67.0 4333.9 13.13 15.0 34 1 210.5
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/11/2013.

Petty is also on pace to add another 13 touchdowns and 200-ish yards on the ground. So you're talking a 4500+ yard, 47 TD season, if all projections hold. Point that out the next time somebody wants to talk about the Moneybadger's "amazing" numbers.

The Running Backs:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Lache Seastrunk 102 883 8.7 11 102 883 8.7 11
2 Rashodrick Linwood 78 625 8.0 7 78 625 8.0 7
3 Glasco Martin 75 319 4.3 5 75 319 4.3 5
4 Bryce Petty 44 118 2.7 8 44 118 2.7 8
5 Devin Chafin 31 157 5.1 2 31 157 5.1 2
6 Anthony Webb 23 133 5.8 0 23 133 5.8 0
7 Seth Russell 21 118 5.6 3 21 118 5.6 3
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/11/2013.

Glasco's injury basically eliminated any chance that he hits the 1,000 yard mark this season, if that chance still existed. Lache and Shock still could, however, which might be even more impressive. The fact that none of them have caught any passes is incredible, as in hard to believe.

Wide Receivers:

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Antwan Goodley 3 27 9.0 0 45 984 21.9 10 48 1011 21.1 10
2 Tevin Reese 33 824 25.0 8 33 824 25.0 8
3 Levi Norwood 19 312 16.4 2 19 312 16.4 2
4 Clay Fuller 18 261 14.5 1 18 261 14.5 1
5 Corey Coleman 13 244 18.8 2 13 244 18.8 2
6 Jay Lee 15 219 14.6 1 15 219 14.6 1
7 Robbie Rhodes 1 8 8.0 0 9 153 17.0 0 10 161 16.1 0
8 Jerod Monk 2 53 26.5 0 2 53 26.5 0
9 Jordan Najvar 4 43 10.8 0 4 43 10.8 0
10 Brandon Brown 1 22 22.0 0 1 22 22.0 0
11 Lynx Hawthorne 1 -1 -1.0 0 2 14 7.0 0 3 13 4.3 0
12 Darius Jones 1 5 5.0 0 1 5 5.0 0
13 Cal Spangler 1 1 1.0 0 1 1 1.0 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 11/11/2013.

I'm going to pour one out for Tevin Reese's injury, the only thing keeping me from celebrating the fact that Goodley passed 1,000 yards from scrimmage in the OU game. With Reese sidelined, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Norwood, Coleman, Fuller, and Rhodes take steps forward in the pecking order at receiver.

Defensive Stats:

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories:

Scoring Defense: 6
Total Defense: 9
Rushing Defense: 28
Passing Defense: 7
Team Pass Efficiency Defense: 3
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 13
Red Zone Defense: 1
First Downs Allowed: 4
Team Sacks: 14
Tackles for Loss: 2
Defensive 3 & Outs: 1

Red Zone Defense: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Leaders:

Tackles: Bryce Hager (65), Eddie Lackey (60), Ahmad Dixon (50)
Tackles for Loss: Shawn Oakman (12), Eddie Lackey (8.5) Jamal Palmer and Chris McAllister (8.0)
Sacks: McAllister (5.5), Jamal Palmer (4.0), and Eddie Lackey (3.0)

As a whole, Baylor's defense has 71 tackles for loss through 8 games. In 13 last season, the Bears had 58. The 2013 team has 25 sacks, while the 2012 team had 19.

Advanced Stats Preview:

I'm not going to get into these in depth until tomorrow, but I wanted to direct your attention to the S&P+ numbers that dropped today. There, Baylor now has the #1 offense and #7 defense in the country. We are now the #2 team in the country in S&P+, ahead of Alabama and behind Florida State.