Baylor Football Stats, Projections Through Week 11

We are back once again, a little earlier than usual on this Monday evening because we're planning to record a podcast tonight (still time to email in your Bear Droppings!), to discuss the stats surrounding Baylor Bears football. And coming off another impressive Big 12 win, we have much to talk about.

Note: If some of this looks like I cut and paste from past weeks, it's because I did! All numbers are updated, though, I assure you.

Offensive Stats:

We'll start here, since this is where Baylor butters its bread. First things first, the primary records people want to see. Through 7 games now in the 2013 season, the holders of these records might want to start feeling a little uneasy.

For the purpose of clarity, I've now added two more subheadings at the top. The first number shows our current average in a given statistic. The next (perhaps 2) shows what we need to average over the next 6 games to break the record, which should be specified.

Baylor Points Per Game: 63.9
Needed for Total Points Record (OU 2008): 45.0 (ppg)
Needed for Points Per Game Record (Army 1944): 47.0 (ppg)

Scoring just 59 points against the Jayhawks on Saturday brought our season average down .8 from a week ago. We've got to stop slacking. The Bears have now scored 447 points on the season to our opponent's 111. The records, once again, straight from the NCAA:

MOST POINTS SCORED
-- (9 games) 504—Army, 1944
-- (10 games) 466—Oklahoma, 1956
-- (11 games) 589—Houston, 1989
-- (12 games) 624—Nebraska, 1983
-- (13 games) 652—Texas, 2005
-- (14 games) 716—Oklahoma, 2008

That last one is the one everybody cares about, and the one I focus on in these posts, at least in terms of points for the season. Commenters correctly point out that OU had an extra game to work with in 2008, but you're making a distinction others will miss. If Baylor doesn't score the 270 points necessary to beat OU's record (717 > 716), nobody will care that we beat Texas' for a 13-game season. Thankfully, 270 points over 6 games is just 45 points per game. Baylor can lose almost 25 points off its season average and still break the record.

Army's record for points per game (56.0 in 1944) is the other I have my eye on, and it came in 9 games. Had they played 13, Army would have scored 728 points. To score 729, we'll need 282 more over 6 games, for an average of 47 points per game. Baylor can break both modern records, for points in a season and points per game, by scoring fewer than 7 touchdowns per game the rest of the way.

Baylor Yards Per Game: 718.4
Needed for Total Yards in a Season (2011 Houston): 559.67 (ypg)
Needed for Yards Per Game (1989 Houston): 516.0 (ypg)

Throwing down 743 yards against Kansas raised our average from a week ago all the way to 718.4, a healthy 86 more than the second place Oregon Ducks. Over the course of an entire season, that would be a Baylor and NCAA record, breaking that of the 1989 Houston Cougars by almost 100 yards per game (the old record is 624.9).

As I mentioned a week ago, there are actually two records at play for yards, just like points. The first is the aforementioned yards per game of the 1989 Cougars, who averaged 624.9 yards per game over 11 games. The second is total yards in a season, set at 8387 by the 2011 Houston Cougars. That record came in 14 games, something Baylor can't possibly get.

To break the former record (yards per game), Baylor needs 625 yards per game, or 8125 over 13 games. With 5029 yards already through 7 games, Baylor needs just 3096 over its last 6, or 516.0, to set a new record. That's going to happen.

To break the latter, Baylor needs 3358 over its final 6, or 559.67 yards per game.

Baylor Yards Per Play: 9.1

This one is a little trickier because it depends on variables on both ends that we simply don't know yet. Without knowing how many plays or yards Baylor will eventually get, it's impossible to know where Baylor ends up. Still, the NCAA record for yards gained per play is currently held by the Hawaii's 2006 team at 8.6. Baylor has that beaten by half a yard.*

*This is what I mean. Without knowing how many yards Baylor will get or how many plays we'll take to do it, I can't say what we need to keep our average over 8.6. I'll keep an eye on it, though.

With the italicized in mind, what we can do is say that Baylor has run 555 plays so far this season, just over 79 per game. Assuming we'll play defenses better equipped to handle us that will knock that number down a bit (an assumption I could challenge reasonably, now that I think about it) to 75, we'd need to average 8.26 yards per play to break Hawaii's record. The math for that works out as:

75*6 = 450 plays remaining + 555 plays already run = 1005 total plays.
1005*8.7 (moving in tenths up from Hawaii's record) = 8743.5 --> 8744 yards
8744 - 5029 = 3715 / 450 plays = 8.26 yards per play.

If you notice, that'd be a new NCAA record for total yards by a lot.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

Scoring Offense: 1
Total Offense: 1
Rushing Offense: 7
Passing Offense: 2
Yards/Completion: 1
Team Passing Efficiency: 1
Scoring Offense: 1
3rd Down Conversion %: 4
First Downs: 9
Fewest Offensive 3 & Outs: 1
Passing Yards Per Completion: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Summary

I have to remind everyone once again that Sports-Reference's numbers aren't official, which is why you might see a little bit of a disparity. They're close enough.

The Quarterbacks:

It's actually The Quarterbacks ... plus Levi Norwood. Because he threw a pass once to Jay Lee, and it was awesome. Russell's stats took a hit from this past game, when he was 1/6 passing and looked totally out of sorts. That's why he's the backup, I guess. Petty is still the national leader in passing efficiency. Projecting his numbers out over an entire season...

Petty is also on pace to add another 11-12 touchdowns and 150-ish yards on the ground. So you're talking a 4800+ yard, 45 TD season, if all projections hold.

The Running Backs:

Mostly because he almost never sees the ball in the second half, Lache's season numbers probably aren't where he wanted them to be. He's averaging 123.43 yards per game on the ground, #1 in the conference, and could top 1,000 yards as soon as next week. He's also on pace to finish with 20 touchdowns for the season.

Wide Receivers:

I doubt we get 2 1,000-yard receivers by the end of the OU game, but we could be close. Goodley, despite missing almost all of this week's contest, leads the team in receiving yards and is tied for the lead in touchdowns. He actually leads the team in yards from scrimmage (removing QBs, obviously), as well.

Defensive Stats:

This is the second week that I'll be doing this, and the improvement from last week to this is evident.

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories:

Scoring Defense: 6
Total Defense: 10
Rushing Defense: 34
Passing Defense: 6
Team Pass Efficiency Defense: 3
3rd Down Conversion % Defense: 19
Red Zone Defense: 1
First Downs Allowed: 4
Team Sacks: 8
Tackles for Loss:1
Defensive 3 & Outs: 1

If you want to see the corresponding conference ranks, refer to our team summary.

Team Leaders:

Tackles: Bryce Hager (58), Eddie Lackey (52), Ahmad Dixon (40)
Tackles for Loss: Shawn Oakman (12), Jamal Palmer (8.0), Chris McAllister and Eddie Lackey (6.5)
Sacks: McAllister (5.5), Jamal Palmer (4.0), and Eddie Lackey (3.0)

As a whole, Baylor's defense has 64 tackles for loss through 7 games. In 13 last season, the Bears had 58. The 2013 team has 23 sacks, while the 2012 team had 19.

More from Our Daily Bears:

• The Last Bye Week, in .GIFs!
• 11.4.2013 Daily Bears Report, Early Edition
• Baylor Remains at #6 in 2013 BCS Rankings
• ODB's Short Week Schedule for OU
• The Big 12 Sunday Morning Quarterback -- Week 10