There are some conflicting sources out there right now with numbers that haven’t been updated completely across the board, and it appears that Baylor will go into this week as a something like a 1 or 2-point favorite on the road against Iowa State. VegasInsider.com, where I typically look for these things, has the VI Consensus as ISU -1, but the most recent number on the board is from FanDuel, which has Baylor -1.5. Circa Sportsbook, which I retweeted earlier, has Baylor -2 (or had, could have moved since then):
Baylor -2 at Iowa State at the open pic.twitter.com/Tls0jvkM9t— ODB (@OurDailyBears) September 18, 2022
We will use Circa’s numbers for consistency across the board. Other lines of note from that graphic:
- West Virginia (-2) at Virginia Tech
- Kansas (-8) vs. Duke
- BYU (-22) vs. Wyoming
- TCU at SMU (PK)
- Texas (-5) at Texas Tech
- Oklahoma (-13) vs. Kansas State
As you can tell, this is the first full week of conference games, so there are a lot of interesting matchups here. Looking at last week’s lines, as far as I can tell, only Kansas State failed to cover among the Big 12 favorites, since they actually lost their game to Tulane.
UPDATE: The line has moved significantly since yesterday in this game, and Baylor is now a 2.5-point underdog across virtually all books. Bill C posted his SP+ projections this morning that have Baylor a slight favorite.
WEEK 4 SP+ PICKS— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 19, 2022
Vols 38, Gators 25
Clemson 34, Wake 23
Oregon 30, Wazzu 21
A&M 27, Arkansas 23
Ohio St 34, Wisconsin 19
USC 31, Oregon St 28??
UGA 53, Kent St 5, lol
App 33, JMU 25
OU 34, K-State 18
ND 33, UNC 27
Weird week! Get your bets in early! pic.twitter.com/q1Zu859uT9