Statistical Recap: Baylor Football at BYU

Baylor recorded their first loss of the season on Saturday, a 26-20 defeat in Provo, Utah against the BYU Cougars. One can’t discuss the game without first mentioning special teams miscues (Baylor missing a field goal and extra point attempt, BYU missing two field goals) and penalties (Baylor with 14 for 117 yards, BYU with 8 for 69 yards).

But while this game turned on one or two plays — Baylor makes their PAT or avoids the holding call on Sqwirl’s TD run in OT they win — distilling the whole game down to these moments ignores how hard fought the other 60+ minutes were.

Below, I provide a detailed statistical breakdown of Baylor and BYU’s offense and defense. Feel free to post any questions in the comment section!

When Baylor was on offense

Baylor had an anemic passing attack against BYU, earning only 137 yards through the air (7.6 yards per reception). That’s a third fewer yards than Baylor averaged per game last season, and especially bad considering BYU typically allows more passing yards than the national average.

Two especially discouraging statistics are Baylor’s lack of explosive passing plays and sack rate allowed. Baylor was slightly above average with 3.3 passing plays of 20+ yards last season, but they had 0 such passing plays against BYU. Based on the broadcast, it was hard to tell if this was due to receivers not getting separation or Shapen not getting enough time for deeper routes to develop. The latter is definitely possible given Shapen was sacked on 13% of passing plays — twice the national average and almost three times what Baylor allowed last season.

As the game progressed, Baylor passed the ball less often, but they had more success in their limited attempts. In the second quarter, Shapen had an uncharacteristically low completion percentage of 38%, managed only 19 yards, and was sacked once. By the fourth quarter, Shapen was a perfect 4/4, scored his only touchdown, and avoided any sacks.

To make up for the struggling passing game, Baylor rushed the ball quite a bit. The running struggled to get more than 4 yards per carry (3.7 yards per rush and a 46% opportunity rate), which are both below average given Baylor’s offense and BYU’s defense last season; however, they picked up a first down or touchdown on 72% of third and fourth down rushing plays, converted on their only third/fourth and short, and rarely were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Baylor’s best rushing quarter was just after halftime. Whatever adjustments the coaches made seemed to work, as Baylor’s backs had a nice 4.8 yards per carry, 50% opportunity rate, and 0% stuff rate. Unfortunately, BYU really keyed in on stopping the rush, and by the fourth quarter, Baylor could only manage 3.7 yards per carry and a 31% stuff rate.

When Baylor was on defense

BYU typically has a lot of success through the air, but Baylor’s defense did a good job limiting the Cougars through most of the game. Baylor held BYU to a 60% completion percentage, 11.8 yards per reception, and a 25% first down conversation rate on passing attempts.

Where Baylor struggled the most was limiting explosive plays; the Bears gave up 5 passing plays of 20+ yards. They also failed to create any turnovers or sack BYU QB Jaren Hill at the rate Baylor’s defense typically does.

Of note in BYU’s passing stats by quarter — Baylor sacked Hill twice in the first half, but they failed to get to the quarterback in the second half. The linebackers and secondary did step up and hold Hill to a 44% completion percentage in the final quarter, though!

In a repeat of last year’s matchup between Baylor and BYU, Baylor’s run defense absolutely dominated BYU. The Cougars managed only 94 yards on the ground and 3 yards per carry. Both are below average given BYU’s offense and Baylor’s defense last season, and 94 yards is half of what BYU usually earns!

Also impressive was Baylor’s run defense on third and fourth down. The Bears allowed a mere 29% conversion rate on third and fourth rate despite BYU averaging a 64% conversation rate last season.

BYU did the most damage in the fourth quarter, earning 4.1 yards per carry and a first down on all of their third/fourth down runs. Of course, their most impactful rushing play was Lopini Katoa’s TD run in second overtime.

Disclaimer: Data courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com. Calculations performed by author. Statistics restricted to games involving at least one FBS team. Garbage time and bowl games excluded.