So, I've held off on doing full-season projections for various things as I've done in the past simply because it seemed too speculative to even try ... but I can't hold back any longer.
I've got to talk about ...
THE POINTS MACHINE:
Baylor has scored 383 points in 6 games this season for an average of 63.8 points/game. The NCAA record for points/game is 56, and it was set by Army way back in 1944, probably because they had a bit of a monopoly on able-bodied young men.
As for total points, somehow I missed (or had forgotten) that the 2013 Baylor Bears actually set a record for points scored in a 13-game season with 681. If we play 13 games and score at the same rate we are scoring right now, we will have 829.
If you extend the season to 14 games, the record is now held by the 2013 Florida St. Seminoles with 723. If we play 14 games and score at the same rate we are scoring now, we will have 893. We'll beat the 14-game record by 170.
But, in all likelihood, we're not going to keep scoring 64 points/game. So, the question becomes: how many points do we need to score to break the three records listed above? I'm glad I asked.*
Points/Game: 49.4 points/game to break Army's record in 13 games; 50.25 to do it in 14.
13-Game Record: 42.714 points/game to break 2013 Baylor's record.
14-Game Record: 42.625 points/game to break 2013 FSU's record.
*To make things easier on myself, I rolled over to the next whole point on each season total.
Ok, now let's get to the stats that have actually happened.
Baylor Team Summary:
|Scoring: Games - Points||6 - 383||6 - 149|
|First Downs: Total||198||124|
|First Downs: Rushing - Passing - By Penalty||103 - 86 - 9||49 - 58 - 17|
|Rushing: Yards / Attempt||7.14||3.32|
|Rushing: Attempts - Yards - TD||293 - 2092 - 20||249 - 827 - 6|
|Passing: Attempts - Completions - Interceptions - TD||190 - 126 - 5 - 32||215 - 123 - 7 - 13|
|Total Offense: Yards / Play||8.94||4.93|
|Total Offense: Plays - Yards||483 - 4318||464 - 2289|
|Punt Returns: Yards / Return||5.70||1.00|
|Punt Returns: Returns - Yards - TD||10 - 57 - 0||4 - 4 - 0|
|Kickoff Returns: Yards / Return||23.86||24.97|
|Kickoff Returns: Returns - Yards - TD||14 - 334 - 0||33 - 824 - 1|
|Punting: Yards / Punt||45.67||39.62|
|Punting: Punts - Yards||12 - 548||37 - 1466|
|Interceptions: Returns - Yards - TD||7 - 81 - 0||5 - 83 - 0|
|Fumbles: Number - Lost||8 - 3||10 - 7|
|Penalties: Number - Yards||57 - 528||58 - 499|
|Time of Possession / Game||26:09.17||33:50.83|
|3rd Down Conversions: Conversion %||50.68%||37.76%|
|3rd Down Conversions: Attempts - Conversions||73 - 37||98 - 37|
|4th Down Conversions: Conversion %||68.75%||30.77%|
|4th Down Conversions: Attempts - Conversions||16 - 11||13 - 4|
|Red Zone: Success %||89.19%||81.25%|
|Red Zone: Attempts - Scores||37 - 33||16 - 13|
|Field Goals: Success %||80%||60%|
|Field Goals: Attempts - Made||5 - 4||5 - 3|
|PAT Kicking: Success %||100%||100%|
|PAT Kicking: Attempts - Made||51 - 51||20 - 20|
|2-Point Conversions: Success %||50%||-|
|2-Point Conversions: Attempts - Made||2 - 1||0 - 0|
That's good stuff, and I'm glad to be a part of it. As long as we keep up the 89% in red zone scoring opportunities and continue outscoring our opponents by 39 points per game, we should be pretty good.
Incidentally, with 4315 yards so far, we have officially gained more yards in six games than any of Guy Morriss' teams did in 12. Or sometimes 11.
Baylor National Ranks:
|Team Stats - Through games 10/20/2015|
|Team Passing Efficiency||1||215.04|
|Passing Yards Allowed||89||243.7|
|Team Passing Efficiency Defense||66||127.77|
|3rd Down Conversion Pct||5||0.507|
|4th Down Conversion Pct||20||0.688|
|3rd Down Conversion Pct Defense||60||0.381|
|4th Down Conversion Pct Defense||T-22||0.308|
|Red Zone Offense||28||0.892|
|Red Zone Defense||T-51||0.813|
|First Downs Offense||4||198|
|First Downs Defense||57||124|
|Fewest Penalties Per Game||127||9.50|
|Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game||126||88.00|
|Time of Possession||117||26:09|
|View Complete Ranking Summary|
Be sure to file away that "higher national rank in rushing offense than passing offense" stat for when people call our offense the "Air Raid," friends.
Typically, the fewer triple-digit ranks I see on here, the better. And this week is no different, since the only ones we have are for fewest penalties, where things are actually improving, and time of possession, which could not matter less.
People are always bugging me for per-play stats, so I thought I'd add them to the post this week:
Baylor is averaging 8.94 yards/play, more than a full yard ahead of the national #2 (TCU). #3 is Texas Tech. The NCAA record for yards/play was set by Hawaii in 2006 at 8.58.
Scotty. Too. Hotty.
Seth Russell leads the nation in passer rating among qualified QBs, has accounted for an astounding 32 TDs in just 6 games, and has thrown just 5 interceptions, with 1 (that shouldn't even have counted) coming in the last three games. He's #onpace for about 3800 passing and about 680 rushing (in 12 games, obviously), although that second number is trending significantly higher after he threw down 160 on the ground against West Virginia. It's possible that with another big game or two like this past weekend, Russell could pass the 5000-yard mark on the season in a bowl game or the CFB Playoff. It's not likely, but it's possible.
His backup, the freshman phenom Jarrett Stidham, has 5 TDs against 4 incompletions on the entire year in mop-up time. But, as Mark May has said about our offense recently, that's good even against air.
Even with a clunker of a game against West Virginia, Shock Linwood is still #onpace for about 1600 rushing yards and 16 TDs as a junior, which would put him firmly in the #1 spot in the Baylor career rushing list.
Just out of curiosity, I pulled the numbers for Corey Coleman and Josh Doctson in 6 and 7 games, respectively.
Coleman -- 41 catches, 877 yards, 16 TDs, 21.39 yards/reception, 6.8 catches/game
Doctson -- 60 catches, 1067 yards, 12 TDs, 17.78 yards/reception, 8.6 catches/game
Projecting Coleman's numbers to 7 games puts him at 48/1023/19 (with a little rounding). Either teams are going to have to completely change the way they're defending Coleman, or he's going to destroy some pretty prominent records this year. He might do it, anyway.
Baylor is giving up 4.93 yards/play, third in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma (4.34) and OSU (4.54). We're giving up 6.8 yards/attempt passing, fourth behind OU (5.2), OSU (6.1), and TCU (6.6), and 3.32 yards/attempt rushing, first in the conference.
Nationally, we are and #34, #54, and #22 in those stats, respectively. If you want to find somewhere to criticize our defense, it's that we're #66 in plays allowed over 20 yards and #83 in plays allowed over 30 yards. Far from a bend-but-don't-break defense, ours is a defense-that-rarely-bends-but-sometimes-breaks. The name is a work-in-progress.
Not a ton of movement here from where things were a week ago, so there's not a lot to say.
Tackles for Loss:
The Bears are averaging 8.5 TFL/game this year, good for #8 in the country (bet you didn't see THAT coming). Andrew Billings leads the way with 8 in 6 games because he's a monster that cares not for artificial boundaries like the line of scrimmage. Oakman leads on a per-game basis and is #onpace for 18 in 13 team games (12 games for him).
As excited as I am about the TFL, this chart is a big disappointment so far. Baylor just isn't getting to the QB so far this season and is tied for 60th in sacks/game. Could that number go up against less-mobile QBs? Possibly, but I don't know how many of those we have left on the schedule.