So a few days ago, I reached out to my man Bill Connelly on Twitter to see if there was anybody or any place he knew of where I could find win probability charts for CFB this season, since the whole concept of "game control" has taken over in recent weeks to become something we're actually talking about.
Lo and behold, there was! User millsGT49, a regular over on FootballStudyHall, has been doing win probability charts for most of the major games this season. In his weekly looks, he had charts for all of Baylor's games except for Northwestern State and Buffalo. I think we can just assume that Baylor "controlled" things adequately in 70-6 and 63-21 wins, no?
Anyway, let's get to the charts, in the order in which we played the games:
Baylor vs. SMU
About what you expected, right? Baylor was never challenged in this game whatsoever.
Baylor @ Iowa State
Baylor's win probability went past 50% just a few minutes into the game and never got below 60% for the duration. The game was essentially over halfway through the second quarter. It was 75% seconds into the second quarter and never went down again more than a few percentage points.
Baylor @ Texas
That drive right before the half killed any chance, according to this chart, that Texas had to win the game. The game was over halfway through the third quarter.
Baylor vs. TCU
Somehow, in a game they supposedly "dominated", TCU managed to fall below 50% win probability several times in the first half before settling around 55% at halftime. Strange notion of "domination" represented here, to be sure.
Baylor @ WVU
Baylor had them in the first half and let it slip away. That's what this chart says. People say Baylor got blown out in Morgantown. How can you get blown out in a game in which you had a positive win probability (meaning 50%+) in the fourth quarter?
Baylor vs. Kansas
So that's what killing Kansas looks like? Huh, take a note, Frogs. 75% win probability five minutes into the game and never below that again.
Baylor @ Oklahoma
I'd really like to know how that second quarter ranks in terms of overall first half swing this year. OU looked to be in control at the end of the first quarter only to fall below 40% win probability by halftime. The second half was never in doubt, in Norman, against Oklahoma.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Never below 75% win probability for Baylor after about 7 minutes to go in the first quarter. But yeah, let's talk about not winning by enough.
So... what do you think?
In 5 of 7 wins represented above, Baylor had at least 75% win probability at halftime. Against Texas, we had ~65%. We can probably assume the same about Northwestern State and Buffalo, giving us 7 of 9 wins this season in which we had 75% win probability at half time.
But we're questioning game control?
Stated a little differently-- Baylor has had 3 games this season in which we ever fell below 25% win probability: TCU, @WVU (our only loss), and @OU.
But we're talking about game control.