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Baylor Football Stats, Projections Through Week 7

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Our weekly look at the stats and projections for Baylor, as well as the records likely to fall and the individual performances that are making Bears fans proud!

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Last year, I kept a running weekly thread going of the Baylor Bears' offensive and defensive stats with projections geared at figuring how how the team and its individual players might finish.  A big part-- too big, in retrospect-- was dedicated to our season-long pursuit of the national scoring record for a season, a record finally and actually broken last year by Florida State in the national championship game (the Seminoles finished with 723 points on the season, breaking OU's record of 716 set in 2008).

I'm not going to do that this year, at least not yet.  Maybe if we throw down a few 60-point games, I'll think about doing it again.  For now, we'll just focus on the team's stats so far and where things project with less thought, if any, to potential records.

Baylor Team Summary

Passing Rushing Total Offense First Downs Penalties Turnovers
Split G Cmp Att Pct Yds TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg Pass Rush Pen Tot No. Yds Fum Int Tot
Offense 6 23.0 39.8 57.7 371.0 3.7 50.3 251.5 5.0 3.3 90.2 622.5 6.9 13.8 15.2 1.5 30.5 9.7 86.2 0.7 0.7 1.3
Defense 6 17.0 35.0 48.6 195.3 0.8 36.7 108.2 3.0 1.3 71.7 303.5 4.2 7.5 5.5 2.7 15.7 6.2 55.7 0.8 0.8 1.7
Difference +6.0 +4.8 +9.1 +175.7 +2.9 +13.6 +143.3 +2.0 +2.0 +18.5 +319.0 +2.7 +6.3 +9.7 -1.2 +14.8 +3.5 +30.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2014.

So far, the 2014 Baylor Bears are averaging ~4 yards per game more than the 2013 iteration and allowing ~57 yards fewer on defense.  That offensive output comes on 7.6 plays more per game, however, meaning that our yards per play is actually down by .6.  That is, coincidentally, the same for our opponents (4.8 to 4.2).  We are also averaging 1.9 first downs more per game and allowing 2.9 fewer.  We're giving up .1 turnovers fewer per game while creating .5 fewer, as well.

Baylor National Ranks in Offensive Categories

(Big 12 Ranks in Parenthesis)

Scoring Offense: 1 (1)
Total Offense: 1 (1)
Passing Offense: 6 (1)
Rushing Offense: 16 (1)
Tackles for Loss Allowed: 1 (1)
Team Passing Efficiency: 8 (1)
Pass Yards/Completion: 5 (1)
Sacks Allowed: 21 (3)
First Downs Offense: 3 (1)
Fourth Down Conv. %: 10 (1)

As always, Sports-Reference's numbers are not official. They're close.

The Quarterbacks

Passing
Rk Player Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1 Bryce Petty 101 178 56.7 1534 8.6 9.5 15 3 153.6
2 Seth Russell 34 58 58.6 675 11.6 13.3 7 1 192.8
3 Chris Johnson 3 3 100.0 17 5.7 5.7 0 0 147.6
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2014.

Petty also has 109 yards on 39 carries with 3 TDs.  Remember that these stats come from about 4.5 games since this season since he missed the second half of SMU and all of Northwestern State.  Projecting out for the remaining 7 games (and treating him as having played 5):

Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
2014 Baylor Big 12 SR QB 5 101 178 56.7 1534 8.6 9.5 15 3 153.6
Projected Baylor 242.4 427.2 56.7 3681.6 8.6 9.5 36 7.2 153.6
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2014.

Petty's completion percentage is down so far this season, largely as a result of his disastrous performance against Texas.  The missing game (12 vs. 13 in 2013) brings down his overall season numbers unless he just goes absolutely crazy against someone else.  We're using averages, of course.  With 3 TDs on the ground so far, he projects to 7.2 for the entire season, a big drop from last year's 14.  Interestingly, he's projecting to throw for more TDs this year (36 vs. 32) than in 2013.

The Running Backs

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 Rashodrick Linwood 119 618 5.2 8 3 57 19.0 0 122 675 5.5 8
2 Johnny Jefferson 65 336 5.2 3 1 16 16.0 0 66 352 5.3 3
3 Bryce Petty 34 109 3.2 3 34 109 3.2 3
4 Silas Nacita 28 149 5.3 3 28 149 5.3 3
5 Devin Chafin 23 84 3.7 1 23 84 3.7 1
6 Seth Russell 19 126 6.6 2 19 126 6.6 2
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2014.

Through 6 games this season, Shock Linwood already has just 9 fewer carries than he did all of last year with about 270 fewer yards and the same number of TDs.  His YPC is thus down over a yard and a half from 2013, though he is trending upward in recent games.  Baylor has had a tremendous amount of difficulty thus far keeping his cohorts in the backfield healthy, with both Jefferson and Chafin missing games already and a relatively unsure situation there going forward.  Hope you ate your Wheaties, Shock, is basically what I'm saying.  I find it interesting that Petty's YPC is up a full yard from a year ago.  Hopefully that continues.

The Wide Receivers

Rushing Receiving Scrimmage
Rk Player Att Yds Avg TD Rec Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
1 K.D. Cannon 2 12 6.0 0 30 651 21.7 6 32 663 20.7 6
2 Jay Lee 21 362 17.2 5 21 362 17.2 5
3 Antwan Goodley 2 6 3.0 0 18 341 18.9 3 20 347 17.4 3
4 Corey Coleman 3 22 7.3 0 21 328 15.6 4 24 350 14.6 4
5 Davion Hall 14 200 14.3 1 14 200 14.3 1
6 Lynx Hawthorne 13 164 12.6 2 13 164 12.6 2
7 Rashodrick Linwood 119 618 5.2 8 3 57 19.0 0 122 675 5.5 8
8 Levi Norwood 7 38 5.4 0 7 38 5.4 0
9 Tre'Von Armstead 3 28 9.3 1 3 28 9.3 1
10 Clay Fuller 3 22 7.3 0 3 22 7.3 0
11 Johnny Jefferson 65 336 5.2 3 1 16 16.0 0 66 352 5.3 3
12 Jordan Feuerbacher 2 15 7.5 0 2 15 7.5 0
13 Quan Jones 1 2 2.0 0 1 2 2.0 0
14 Gus Penning 1 2 2.0 0 1 2 2.0 0
Provided by Sports-Reference.com/CFB: View Original Table
Generated 10/14/2014.

I don't think I'm telling you anything you didn't already know here.  Cannon leads in receiving by just under 300 yards, with Lee behind him in 2nd and Goodley and Coleman charging hard from the 3 and 4 spots, respectively.  So far, Goodley is averaging the exact same yards per catch as a year ago (18.9).  Goodley will need about 95 yards per game the rest of the way to get to 1,000 once again.  Barring injury, that's a lock, right? (Knock on everything wooden in sight).

Baylor National Ranks in Defensive Categories

(Big 12 Ranks in Parenthesis)

Total Defense: 10 (1)
Scoring Defense: 25 (1)
Team Sacks: 10 (2)
Pass Efficiency Defense: 9 (2)
Tackles for Loss: 14 (2)
Pass Defense: 22 (2)
Rush Defense: 15 (2)
First Downs Defense: 16 (2)
1st Down Defense: 16 (2)
3rd Down % Defense: 18 (2)
4th Down % Defense: 13 (2)

Because Sports-Reference is awful with defensive stats, I won't use them here.  Instead, we're pulling straight from BaylorBears.com's cumulative statistics:

Tackles Sacks Pass Defense Fumbles Blkd
DEFENSIVE LEADERS GP Solo Ast Total TFL-Yds No-Yds Int-Yds BU PD Qbh Rcv-Yds FF Kick Saf
44 Hager,Bryce 6 25 17 42 5.0 - 20 1.0 - 9 . 1 1 3 . 2 . .
8C Stewart,Orion 6 21 12 33 . . 3 - 45 1 4 . . . . .
11 Young,Taylor 6 17 13 30 3.0 - 18 2.0 - 16 . 2 2 1 . 1 . .
2A Oakman,Shawn 6 17 7 24 8.0 - 48 5.0 - 42 . 1 1 4 1 - 0 1 . .
20 Edwards,Aiavion 5 15 9 24 2.5 - 8 0.5 - 1 . 3 3 1 1 - 11 1 . .
13 Burt,Terrell 6 18 3 21 1.0 - 2 . . 4 4 . . . . .
38 Brence,Collin 6 12 8 20 1.0 - 1 . . 1 1 7 . . . .
95 Blackshear,Beau 6 12 7 19 6.5 - 47 4.5 - 41 . . . 1 1 - 0 . 1 .
4A Howard,Xavien 6 16 3 19 0.5 - 2 0.5 - 2 2 - 25 9 11 1 . . . .
56 Smith,K.J. 6 12 4 16 4.5 - 22 2.0 - 16 . . . 3 . . . .
9A Reid,Ryan 6 14 1 15 . . . 5 5 . . 1 . .
75 Billings,Andrew 6 10 4 14 4.5 - 13 1.0 - 10 . . . 7 . . . .
48 Blanchard,T. 6 11 3 14 1.5 - 3 . . . . 1 . . . .
92 Palmer,Jamal 5 6 8 14 3.0 - 8 2.5 - 8 . . . 2 . . . .
19 Davis,Raaquan 6 6 5 11 . . . . . . . . . .
18 Waz,Chance 6 3 6 9 . . . . . . . . . .
5A Campbell,Grant 6 6 3 9 . . . . . 1 . . . .
2B Pullom,Alfred 6 5 4 9 . . . . . . . . . .
24 Singleton,T. 5 7 1 8 . . . 1 1 . . . . .
6B Ehrlich,Kendall 6 5 3 8 . . . . . . . . . .
90 Magee,Javonte 6 5 3 8 3.5 - 11 1.0 - 7 . . . 2 . . . .
93 Masumbuko,S. 6 3 2 5 1.0 - 6 1.0 - 6 . . . . . . . .
5B Nance,Brian 6 2 3 5 0.5 - 2 . . . . . 1 - 0 . . .
26 Sells,Taion 4 4 1 5 . . . . . . . . . .
3 Wright,Tion 6 3 . 3 . . . . . . . . . .
96 Bonds,Byron 6 1 2 3 . . . . . . . . . .

The chart looks different, obviously, but I think I got all of the major defensive players.  The team as a whole has 46 tackles for loss so far and 21 sacks.  Last year's team had 99 and 32, respectively, in 13 games.  Bryce Hager leads the team in tackles followed by Orion Stewart and Taylor YoungShawn Oakman, in tackles for loss followed by Beau Blackshear and Hager.  Oakman, again in sacks followed by Blackshear again and Jamal Palmer.