Big 12 MBB Preview: Roster Turnover and Experience

Continuing our series aimed at getting us ready for the start of another college basketball season, we’ve looked at many of the new faces we’ll see around the Big 12 this season. Now we’ll look at which teams were able to retain a significant amount of their statistical production from the previous season and also which teams come into the season with the most experience.

Takeaways: Roster Turnover and Production Retention (Based on Last Season’s Results in the Big 12)

• Rebound and Block retention had virtually no correlation to winning.
• Assist and Steal retention were the most strongly correlated to winning.
• TCU had by far the best production retention in the conference (bringing back 88%+ in all categories) and finished 9-9 in conference play.
• Kansas was near the bottom of the conference in production retention across the board and won the regular season conference championship.
• High production retention is not a prerequisite to strong conference performance, nor does it offer any guarantee of having a winning record in conference play.

Production Retention

Takeaways: Roster Turnover and Production Retention (Entering this Season)

Baylor: The Bears lost all three starting guards, but bring back an impressive 58% of their rebounding and 67% of their blocks from last season. Baylor is in the middle 3rd of the conference in scoring, minute, and steal retention. The Bears will be replacing 8 players (Adam Flagler, Keyontae George, Flo Thamba, LJ Cryer, Dale Bonner, Zach Loveday, Jordan Turner, and Jake Younkin).

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BYU: The Cougars are dealing with the least roster turnover in the conference. They are either 1^st or 2^nd in every retention category. They will only be replacing 4 players including Rudi Williams and Gideon George.

Cincinnati: Despite bringing back a majority of their rebounding production, the Bearcats are in the bottom half of the league in every other retention category, including assists where they bring back less than an 8^th of their production from last season. They will be replacing 7 players including Landers Nolley and David DeJulius.

Houston: The Cougars are in the top 3^rd of the league in every retention category, which could factor into what most expect may be a relatively smooth transition from the AAC to the Big 12. They will be replacing just 5 players including Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker.

Iowa State: While the Cyclones didn’t lose a ton of players, the ones they did lose were some of their very best. They will be replacing 6 players including Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur.

Kansas: In terms of the two retention categories that were most highly correlated with winning last year (assists and steals), the Jayhawks are 2^nd in the league in both. They will be replacing 8 players including Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick.

Kansas State: Despite, bringing back an impressive 59% of their shot-blocking production from last year, the Wildcats are in the bottom half of the league in every other retention category. They will be replacing 7 players including Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson.

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Oklahoma: The Sooners are in the bottom half of the league in every retention category. This may not bode well for them in their final season as a member of the conference. They will be replacing 9 players including Grant Sherfield and Tanner Groves.

Oklahoma State: Looking at the Pokes’ retention, it’s clear that they lost some key big men but were able to bring back some of their more productive guards. They will be replacing 8 players including Kalib Boone and Moussa Cisse.

TCU: Despite being near the top of the conference in almost every retention category, they bring back less than a third of their assists from last season which could call into question the reliability of their backcourt play going into this season. They will be replacing 7 players including Mike Miles, Jr. and Damion Baugh.

Texas: Roster turnover shouldn’t play a huge factor in this season for the Horns who are in the middle third of every retention category. They will be replacing just 5 players including Marcus Carr and Sir’Jabari Rice.

Texas Tech: The Raiders bring back a modest 38% of their assist production from last year, but otherwise are in the bottom half of the conference in every other retention category. That goes with the territory when bringing in a new head coach. They will be replacing 8 players including Kevin Obanor and De’Vion Harmon.

UCF: The Knights are in the bottom third of the league in every retention category. This sort of turnover may exacerbate the difficulty of adjusting to Big 12 play. They will be replacing 9 players including NBA Lottery Pick, Taylor Hendricks.

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West Virginia: The Mountaineers are facing by far the most roster turnover in the conference finishing last or 2^nd to last in every retention category. This would be expected considering the tumultuous offseason that included the resignation of a HOF head coach. They will be replacing 10 players.

Takeaways: Experience (Based on Last Season’s Results in the Big 12)

• Overall, there was no meaningful positive correlation between having an experienced starting lineup and winning. However, if you omit Baylor and Kansas from the results, there was a very high correlation between starting lineup experience and winning, most notably between career games started and winning.
• The two least experienced teams in the conference (Kansas and Baylor) were a combined 24-12 in league play.
• Texas and Kansas State (each in the top 3 most experienced teams in the conference) both finished in the top 3 in the final league standings.
• Teams with experienced starting lineups should be more successful than their less experienced competitors except for instances where those younger teams have star one-and-done guys like Keyonte George and Gradey Dick.

Experience

Please Note: (1) The projected starters and projected top three reserves are based on my projections of who is likely to see the most minutes for each team. (2) Only Division I stats are considered for experience herein.

Takeaways: Experience (Entering this Season)

Baylor: The Bears are middle-of-the-road in the league in terms of experience. Baylor’s relative lack of experience will likely be far outweighed by the talented young players joining this roster (especially Ja’Kobe Walter and Yves Missi). The Bears avoid the bottom 3^rd of the league in experience due in no small part to the fact that incoming RayJ Dennis brings with him to Baylor over 100 career games started and over 3,600 minutes played at the Division I level. This season’s projected top 8 players have more than 10,000 career minutes played. For comparison, the top 8 players from the national championship team, only went into that season with 9,700 career minutes played.

BYU: The Cougars are 1 of only 3 Big 12 teams with none of its projected starters entering the season with over 2,000 career minutes played. Still, each of BYU’s top 8 projected players have started 20+ games in their careers.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats will ask a lot of true freshman guard Jizzle James, who is 1 of 3 Cincinnati’s top 8 projected players with 0 career games started. Cincinnati is pretty close to the center of the conference in terms of experience.

Houston: Between Jamal Shead and J’Wan Roberts, the Cougars have a pair of starters each with over 100 career games played. Expanding the inquiry beyond the starting lineup, Houston’s top reserves are extremely inexperienced.

Iowa State: The Cyclones’ star true freshman will be complemented by Robert Jones and Tre King each of whom have appeared in over 110 career games. Iowa State will nonetheless go into the season in the bottom half of the conference in every experience category.

Kansas: The contrast between the vets and the freshmen in KU’s projected top 8 players is stark. The Jayhawks will give a lot of playing time to three true freshmen while also showcasing Dajuan Harris, Jr., Kevin McCullar, Jr., Hunter Dickinson, and Parker Braun who have combined to play over 420 Division I games.

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Kansas State: Despite their relatively experienced starting lineup, this season, the Wildcats will likely lean heavily on a pair of true freshmen in their regular rotation. Quite the opposite from last year, KSU is in the bottom half of the conference in every experience category.

Oklahoma: The Sooners will be one of the least experienced teams in the Big 12 this season and with the unremarkable quality of incoming freshmen, OU probably shouldn’t expect to see a fundamentally sound team, especially in the early part of the season.

Oklahoma State: Although the Cowboys are expected to start a couple of true freshmen, they also will feature John-Michael Wright who has an incredible 121 career starts and will go well over 4,000 career minutes played this year. Still, OSU is near the bottom of the league in experience in terms of career games started.

TCU: The Frogs have, by far, the most experienced team in the conference. 7 of their top 8 projected players come into the season with over 90 career games played. TCU’s top 8 projected players have more than 5,500 more career minutes played than the 3^rd most experienced team (Kansas).

Texas: The Horns are the 2^nd most experienced team in the league this season. In terms of experience, Max Abmas is the headliner, arriving at Texas with 123 career starts under his belt.

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Texas Tech: Tech is across the board one of the more experienced teams in the conference. This was the recipe that worked so well for Jerome Tang last year in his first season as a head coach in the Big 12. We’ll see if former CSD assistant, Grant McCasland is able to successfully follow a similar blueprint. The Raiders’ starting lineup has 3 guys with over 100 career games played (Toussaint, Cambridge, and Washington).

UCF: Whether talking about the starting lineup or the projected top 8 players, UCF is one of the least experienced teams in the league in terms of career games started. One of the Knights’ most experienced players, Omar Payne (111 career games played), will likely come off the bench.

West Virginia: The Mountaineers’ projected starting lineup ranks 3^rd in the league in career games played, while being middle-of-the-road in the other experience categories. West Virginia will likely give big minutes to a trio of players with 0 career starts (Wilson, Naveh, Harris).

Conclusion

Not only is Kansas a blue blood with a ton of momentum and an impeccable incoming class of transfers and recruits, but the obstacles they faced last year (high roster turnover and a lack of experience) will not factor into this year’s version of the Jayhawks. That’s probably bad news for the rest of the Big 12. Still, Baylor (who also dealt with high roster turnover and a lack of experience last year) is looking pretty good with regard to the guys they are bringing back this year and the experience that’ll be on display on a nightly basis. Teams like Oklahoma, West Virginia, and UCF probably have cause for concern after looking at these data points. Sic em!