The #1 ranked Baylor Bears (15-0) host the upset-minded #19 ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3) this evening. Tech is coming off an impressive victory over the Kansas Jayhawks where they out-rebounded KU 34 to 24 and won the turnover battle 12 to 17.
Here are three stats to look out for if Tech is going to pull off back-to-back upsets over the top teams in the conference.
Three Point Offense
Baylor has drastically improved their three point shooting the last few weeks. The Bears average 37% on their threes (53rd in the country), but since the start of conference play, Baylor has shot 44%, good enough for 2nd in the country if maintained for the entire season.
I anticipate the strong shooting from deep to continue against Tech. The Red Raiders’ opponents shoot as well from deep against Tech as they do in their other games (-0.6 percentage points, 191st in the country).
For the second game in a row, Baylor is playing an excellent rebounding team. Tech grabs 36% of available offensive rebounds (13th in the country) and holds their opponents to an 8 percentage point lower offensive rebounding rate (19th in the country).
Baylor is ordinarily an elite offensive rebounding team with an oreb% of 37% (10th in the country), but TCU held the Bears to a paltry 29%. If Tech can replicate TCU’s success (and their own success against Kansas), it could be a long night for Baylor.
A key piece of Baylor’s top-10 KenPom defensive rating is their ability to generate turnovers, and that should hold true against Texas Tech. Baylor forces opponents to turn the ball over 7 percentage points more often than their opponents do in other games (9th in the country). Tech is more than willing to turn the ball over with a turnover rate of 19% (252nd in the country).
If the Red Raiders have a turnover rate of 28%, I can’t image them winning this game.
KenPom Prediction: Baylor 74, Texas Tech 63