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Big 12 Week Thirteen Football Preview

Happy Thanksgiving as we enter the final weekend of regular season play!

San Jose State v Texas Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kansas State @ Texas

Friday, November 26th 11:00 AM CT, FOX

There are a couple of big games over this holiday weekend which have massive implications for the Big 12 championship game or bowl eligibility. This is not one of those games. Texas (4-7, 2-6) is officially out of the running for a bowl game. Kansas State (7-4, 4-4) is already bowl eligible and another win isn’t going to do much other than maybe impact what bowl they go to. What does matter about this game is if Texas can find a way to end their season on a positive note or if they’re going out on a 7 game losing streak. The Longhorns are fresh off a loss to West Virginia. For Kansas State, it is about once again stabilizing the quarterback position after Skylar Thompson suffered yet another injury in the Wildcats’ loss to Baylor. There is a chance Thompson will start, but if not we will likely see Will Howard and Jaren Lewis both getting some reps. Kansas State is a different, worse team without Thompson but Texas is just so dysfunctional that I can’t see them getting a W here. For whatever reason, Texas is favored by three points at the time of this writing. I would hit the KState cover bet in a heart beat.

35-24 Kansas State

TCU @ Iowa State

Friday, November 26th 3:30 PM CT, FS1

While this game doesn’t matter for the Big 12 title race, it does matter for TCU (5-6, 3-5) as they sit one win away from bowl eligibility. A very underperforming Iowa State (6-5, 4-4) stands in their way. The Cyclones had major conference championship hopes before losing three of their last four games, including a close loss to Oklahoma last weekend. TCU barely survived their last game against Kansas. Even though Iowa State lost, they looked pretty good at times against the Sooners. TCU hasn’t looked good since their inexplicable win against Baylor a few weeks ago. Iowa State is favored by 15 points which might be a bit hefty, but I like the Cyclones here regardless.

27-16 Iowa State

Texas Tech @ #8 Baylor

Saturday, November 27th 11:00 AM CT, FS1

This year’s BUTT Bowl has potentially HUGE Big 12 title race implications as #8 Baylor (9-2, 6-2) hopes to make the conference championship game. In order for that to happen, two things need to playout. First and foremost, Baylor needs to win this game against Texas Tech (6-5, 3-5). Second, Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma (more on that below). With such motivation at play for Baylor, I think the team will come out focused and ready regardless of which quarterback is starting. Gerry Bohannon went down with a hamstring injury in the Bears’ game against Kansas State. Coach Dave Aranda says Bohanon is day-to-day (I am writing this on Tuesday, so this news could change by the time this article is published), but if he is unable to go, Blake Shapen came into the KState game and looked phenomenal, throwing 16-21 for 137 yards. On the other side, Texas Tech got absolutely smacked by Oklahoma State’s defense. The Red Raiders amassed only 108 yards in the entire game. Now, Oklahoma State’s defense is certainly the best in the conference. But Baylor’s is no slouch either. Even if the Baylor offense inexplicably struggles, the Baylor defense should be more than enough on paper to stymie Texas Tech and give themselves a shot at the Big 12 championship game. Baylor is favored by 14 points.

31-13 Baylor

West Virginia @ Kansas

Saturday, November 27th 6:00 PM CT, FS1

Here’s another game that doesn’t matter for the Big 12 title race, but does have bowl game implications. West Virginia (5-6, 3-5) is sitting one win away from bowl eligibility after beating Texas last weekend. They now travel to Kansas (2-9, 1-7) in a matchup that is typically a foregone conclusion. Typically. However, Kansas has found new life at the end of this season, beating Texas and losing to TCU on only a last second field goal. A lot of that spark is from quarterback Jalon Daniels, who led the Jayhawks to victory against the Longhorns and had an admirable performance against the Horned Frogs. As only a sophomore, the Jayhawks should certainly be working to build around him moving forward. Nevertheless, with what is at stake for the Mountaineers, they should come out fired up and ready to take on Kansas, who is less likely to sneak up on WVU given their last two performances. West Virginia is favored by 15.5 points. I suspect it will be closer than that, but the Mountaineers will win and become bowl eligible.

24-17 West Virginia

#10 Oklahoma @ #7 Oklahoma State

Saturday, November 27th 6:30 PM CT, ABC

Here’s the big one in conference play this week. Bedlam. If Baylor is able to beat Texas Tech, the outcome of this game will decide who will be playing in the Big 12 championship game. #7 Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1) is already guaranteed a spot in the title game, but they have plenty to play for here in terms of rivalry and potential College Football Playoff hopes. #10 Oklahoma (10-1, 7-1) is playing for those same goals, but their spot in the conference championship is not assured. Ultimately, I think this game comes down to defense. Baylor certainly proved a few weeks ago that a strong defense can give Sooners quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler fits. Oklahoma State indisputably has the best defense in the conference, so I’m sure they will implement many of the same strategies Baylor used to more or less shut down the Oklahoma offense. From there, it’s all about if Oklahoma State’s offense can get enough done to pull away from the Sooners. The Cowboys’ offense has been the weaker side of the ball, but it is certainly good enough to put some points on the board if needed. Oklahoma has a lopsided record in this rivalry, but I think the Cowboys get over the hump this year, especially given this is a home game at Boone Pickens, a notoriously difficult venue for road teams. Oklahoma State is favored by four points.

20-13 Oklahoma State

FieldinOfDreams’ 2021 Prediction Record through Week 12: 52-18