It's been a good year for Baylor. Sitting at 6-1 with only a loss to Oklahoma State, Baylor is still in contention for a Big 12 title. However, to claim their first Big 12 title since 2014 Baylor is going to have to beat Texas and Oklahoma. They have no margin for error.
This week they start "easy" with Texas. The Longhorns have disappointed in Steve Sarkisian's first season, but they've shown they have the talent to beat anyone in the country. They just haven't been consistent.
It's up to Baylor to take advantage of those inconsistencies from Texas.
Oddsmakers like Baylor in this one, but just barley. The Bears are 2.5 point favorites, and they're given -127 odds to win the games outright. That's an implied 55.7% chance to win the game. Meanwhile, Texas is given +130 odds, or an implied 43.5% chance to pull off the upset.
Baylor and Texas have played each other 110 times in their history. Baylor has won just 27 of those games. That ratio hasn't really gotten any better in recent years.
Texas has won 5 of the last 6 games they've played against Baylor. The lone exception was in 2019 when Baylor won 24-10. Of course, the Bears went to the Big 12 title game and the Sugar Bowl that year.
Baylor has a chance to make some real noise. It's hard to imagine right now, but there's a path for a 1 win Big 12 champion to make the college football playoff.
If Baylor is going to have any chance at that slim opportunity then they need this win. Even if the college football playoffs are out, Baylor still needs this win to compete for a Big 12 title. This is simply a must win game for the Bears.