Baylor takes on TCU at 1:00 in Forth Worth. The game airs on ESPN.
The Bears are 7.5 point favorites on most books. KenPom likes Baylor by nine. He gives them a 77% chance to win.
1) Contain Desmond Bane- TCU’s leading scorer and best offensive player can take over one game. He finished with 14 points in Waco, and he had a nice second half.
2) Take open threes- TCU gives up quite a few triples (67th most). The Bears don’t need to overpass and risk turnovers. Take the good shots TCU gives.
3) Pull away- Baylor is substantially better than TCU. The Horned Frogs aren’t playing for the NCAA Tournament. The Bears are playing for a Big 12 and national championship. There will be shots to pull away. Don’t let the much worse team keep it close.
Maybe TCU has one moment of glory in a season of mediocrity. With Kansas and Baylor 28-0 against all the other Big 12 teams, maybe one of the league’s two contenders is due for a loss to an okay team.
But you don’t predict low probability events unless you have a reason to believe in something crazy. There’s no reason to believe that crazy scenario happens.
The Bears responded well to a devastating loss to Kansas by blowing out Kansas State. They’ll keep rolling against TCU. I’ll take Baylor 70-55.