FanPost

Big 12 Predictions

*This was posted prior to any games Saturday, January 11th

After the first week of Big 12 play, I'd like to share my predictions, rankings, and awards for the remainder of the season.

1. Baylor: 14-4

Baylor is off to a 12-1 start, winning their last 11 in a row, and are poised for a top finish in the Big 12 this season. This is an experienced team looking to build off last season’s effort. Only Makai Mason and King McClure graduated, but they are replaced by transfers MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who previously played at UNC Asheville and Auburn, respectively. Big man Tristan Clark is still recovering from the knee surgery that kept him out for most of conference play last year. In the meantime, Freddie Gillespie has stepped up in a big way, recording five double-doubles and averaging 9.3 RPG. Sophomore Jared Butler has been the best player for Baylor so far, leading the team in PPG with 16.3. Scott Drew and the Bears have an elite defense this year, featuring more man-to-man defense than in years past. Their defensive excellence should propel them toward the top of the Big 12 standings.

Key to success: Outside shooting - Through their first two Big 12 games, the Bears have shot just 30% from three, scoring just 59 and 57 points. So far, their defense has allowed them to triumph even when their shots are not falling; however, if the Bears would like to compete for the Big 12 title and possibly even a National Championship, they are going to need to shoot better, especially from 3-point range.

Player to watch: Tristan Clark - Before going down with a knee injury last year, Clark led the nation in field goal percentage. It has now been a year since his injury, though the rust is evidently still there. Clark has been shooting just 36% from the field thus far. If he can regain his prior form, then Baylor has a good chance of making a deep run in March.

1. Kansas: 14-4

Last season, the Jayhawks’ streak of regular-season Big 12 titles ended at 14, as they finished in 3rd place in the conference. However, that was with a much younger and inexperienced team, without three key players in Udoka Azubuike (injury), Lrald Vick (leave of absence), and Silvio De Sousa (suspension). Both big men (Azubuike and De Sousa) are back for Kansas, and combined with developing Sophomore David McCormack, they comprise a lethal frontcourt. The Jayhawks are led by the speedy Devon Dotson, who has clearly elevated his game this season. So far, he is averaging 18.6 PPG compared with 12.3 PPG last year. Barring any injuries, Kansas should at least hold a share of the Big 12 title for the 15th time in the last 16 years.

Key to success: Defense - Kansas is not known for its ability to defend, but this team has the potential to be exceptional on the defensive end and have lived up to expectations so far throughout the season. The offensive firepower is always there for the Jayhawks, so, if they can consistently stop teams on the defensive end, they will be extremely hard to beat.

Player to watch: Christian Braun - Although he does not receive a lot of public recognition, Christian Braun has had a huge impact on the Jayhawks’ success. When speaking about him in an interview on Friday, Azubuike cited Braun’s confidence and noted that "the way he’s playing is rising" and that he should continue to "shoot the ball." The 6’6 Freshman guard started out the season getting very limited minutes, but always made an impact when given the chance to play. Currently, Braun is shooting 41% from beyond the arc in just 14 minutes per game. As the season goes on, expect Braun to get more playing time, and to play a big role for this Kansas team moving forward.

3. West Virginia: 12-6

Although West Virginia was projected to finish in the bottom half of the conference, the Mountaineers have shocked many, going 12-2 to this point. This includes a win against a top-5 Ohio State squad and a close contest against Kansas in Lawrence. West Virginia does not have a go-to scorer, which may be an issue for them going forward. However, they have a balanced attack, with five guys averaging between 8 and 12 PPG. Freshman Oscar Tshiebwe has exceeded expectations for the Mountaineers, recording 12 points and 9 rebounds per contest. Lefty Derek Culver also dominates inside and is a big reason why they are a top rebounding team in the country. WVU struggles at times offensively, shooting just 31% from three, well below the NCAA average. Expect this WVU team to be in the 10-12 win range conference play.

Key to success: Limiting turnovers - West Virginia averages 15 turnovers per game, which is a very high number, especially for a team that doesn’t shoot a high percentage . Unless this changes, they will need to play cleaner and more efficiently against better competition to remain a ranked team.

Player to watch: Jordan McCabe - The Sophomore guard has had a slow start to the season, averaging just 3.3 PPG while shooting 26.7% from the field and 15.6% from beyond the three point line. McCabe could be a big piece for the Mountaineers, as he is an exceptional passer and typically a more than capable shooter.

4. Texas Tech: 11-7

Despite losing Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney and Tariq Owens, Texas Tech remains a ranked team, looking to compete for the Big 12 title again this year. Sharpshooting Freshman Jahmi’us Ramsey currently leads the team in scoring with 17.7 points while shooting 48% from beyond the arc. TTU also brings in graduate transfers Chris Clarke and TJ Holyfield to provide some depth and experience. Point guard Davide Moretti returns for the Red Raiders for a third season with the team, but has struggled so far offensively. This team has the potential for a consecutive final four run, but at the same time could be an early exit from the Big Dance. They should certainly finish in the top four in the Big 12.

Key to success: Defending the three - Last season, the Red Raiders guarded the three extremely well, holding their opponents to 30%, which was 13th best in the country. However, after losing three of their best defenders, they have had an unusually difficult time defending the outside shot, allowing almost 7 threes per game. Despite lacking the same length and size as in prior years, they still have a smothering defense. Tech’s offense has been a pleasant surprise, and if they can start defending the perimeter a little better, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the conference.

Player to watch: Kyler Edwards - Currently a Sophomore, he averaged a little over 5 PPG last year, and is one of the few returning players on this team. Edwards is capable of breaking a game wide open with his shooting ability; however, he has shot poorly up to this point (25% from three, compared to 45% last year). If Edwards can consistently knock down the three-ball, the other shooters on the team will have more open looks.

5. Texas: 8-10

Shaka Smart’s team is off to a 10-4 start, losing their first two conference games to Baylor and Oklahoma, while averaging just 53 points in those games. The main concern for the Longhorns is their inability to score - they are averaging only 67 PPG, getting 12 from Matt Coleman III, and 11 apiece from Andrew Jones and Courtney Ramey. Their defense is much improved, but not on an elite enough level to overcome poor offensive execution. Texas should finish around .500 in Big 12 play, and will likely be a bubble team come tournament time.

Key to success: Free throw shooting - Texas currently shoots 64% from the charity stripe, which is 317th nationally (out of 353 teams). In addition, Texas gets to the line just 12 times per game, which is good for just 348th in the country. The Longhorns have to be more aggressive offensively and try to take advantage of their athleticism. If they cannot create more offensive opportunities and convert at a higher rate, they will be playing in their second straight NIT tournament in March.

Player to watch: Matt Coleman III - As a Freshman, Coleman III shot just 29% from beyond the arc. Fast forward two years, and he is leading his team in 3 point percentage, shooting 44%. Now that he has a consistent three-point shot, Coleman III should be able to take his defenders to the rack and draw some fouls. For the Longhorns to compete in this conference, they are going to need their starting PG to take his game to the next level.

Rest of rankings:

6. Oklahoma: 8-10

7. Iowa State: 6-12

8. Oklahoma State: 6-12

9. TCU: 6-12

10. Kansas State: 5-13

Big 12 awards:

Player of the year: Devon Dotson, Kansas

Newcomer of the year: MaCio Teague, Baylor

Freshman of the year: Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia

All-Big 12 team:

Devon Dotson, Kansas

Jared Butler, Baylor

Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State

Jahmi’us Ramsey, Texas Tech

Udoka Azubuike, Kansas

Fanposts on ODB are user-submitted and do not necessarily reflect the opinions/views of OurDailyBears.com, SB Nation.com, or any of the writers, editors, or contributors here.