Baylor takes on Iowa State at 2:30 on Saturday at McLane Stadium. The game airs on ESPN.
While Baylor opened as a three point favorite, the Cyclones are now favored by three points on most books. Bill Conelly’s SP+ gives Baylor a 53% chance to beat Iowa State.
This game is a toss up. The Cyclones are inconsistent. Iowa State looked like a dumpster fire against Northern Iowa. They looked mediocre and lost on a stunning punt return snafu against Iowa. And they’re not the same team without David Montgomery. But the Cyclones just went wild on offense against ULM. Brock Purdy is a force, and Iowa State fans—likely because Scott Drew is the Mayor of Ames—have a weird fascination with this game.
Baylor can’t mess around and try and establish the run. The Bears may have to throw 45 times to beat Iowa State. Their 3-3-5 defense can give up sustained runs, but they also shut down UNI on the ground. I’d expect Charlie Brewer to have a big game, and the Bears to do a better job in the red zone this season (something Peter, Fank and Coffey covered in the podcast).
I think Baylor wins this game. Iowa State is fine. They’ll make a bowl game. But the Cyclone hype is way too high. Baylor has better players and a better coaching staff. Baylor wins 35-24.