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Baylor Basketball: Bracketology Update 3/15

NCAA Basketball: Big 12 Conference Tournament-Baylor vs. Iowa State Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports

We’re two days from Selection Sunday.

Barring the most shocking NCAA Tournament decision of all-time, Baylor will make the field. They are in 116 of 117 brackets on bracket matrix. Don’t sweat the one they’re out on. That bracketolgoist says, “These projections are not intended to predict how the Selection Committee itself will ultimately decide the field of 68, a process we all know to be greatly flawed. There are plenty of other sites out there that do that. Instead, my estimates seed the teams largely according to overall performance instead of wins and losses, and they are powered by the team ratings you see on the main page.”

The Bears are a No. 9 seed on the matrix. They’re a No. 9 on ESPN and CBS.

Even with the Atlantic-10 going to a thief—with VCU out—there aren’t too many thieves left. Maybe Nebraska could play their way in. Maybe Alabama can as well. It’s possible Memphis or Wichita State win the America. And West Virginia could still win the Big 12. Oregon could win the PAC-12, and someone weird could win the Mountain West. That’s seven potential thieves out there. Florida and Ohio State are already in the matrix field.

Baylor is 12 teams above the cut line on the matrix. So even if those seven scenarios unfolded (an extremely unlikely possibility), Baylor is still five above the cut line. And if those scenarios unfold, some teams below Baylor would be hurt. Washington would probably drop below Baylor, given their horrible resume, and they’d add another loss.

The Bears should be somewhere between an 8 seed and a 10 seed on Sunday. There are too many teams below Baylor with massive flaws—Texas and Indiana have 31 combined losses, Belmont’s schedule was terrible and Creighton lacks the quality wins.

As we get closer to Sunday, there may be some urge to fear Baylor won’t make the dance. I wouldn’t sweat Baylor making it, but sometime Saturday, I might irrationally freak myself out. Don’t irrationally freak yourself out. Baylor’s going to make it.