Kansas @ #22 Iowa State
Saturday, November 23rd 11:00 AM CT, FSN
Really, this game doesn’t matter a whole lot other than pride for both sides and bowl position for the Cyclones. #22 Iowa State (6-4, 4-3) made it into the CFP Top 25 after a last second win over Texas last weekend. They are the only 6-4 team in the poll and would certainly have to win this game to remain in the top 25. For Les Miles and Kansas (3-7, 1-6), its been a bit of the same this season as the past however many seasons. They will not be going to a bowl game and have only pulled off one Big 12 win against Texas Tech. However, a win against either top 25 Iowa State or top 25 Baylor to end the season would certainly be a huge plus for the program, so they could still be very hungry. While they might put up a fight in this game, Brock Purdy and company get it done on senior day in Ames.
38-24 Iowa State
#21 Oklahoma State @ West Virginia
Saturday, November 23rd 11:00 AM CT, ESPN2
#21 Oklahoma State (7-3, 4-3) hits the road to face off against West Virginia (4-6, 2-5). This is an absolute must win for the Mountaineers who have to win this game and their game against TCU to become bowl eligible. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, is in a similar position as Iowa State: playing mostly for pride and perhaps an extremely slim shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. Even though West Virginia really needs this game, Chuba Hubbard is too strong of a running back for the Mountaineers to contain. If West Virginia does manage to pull this game off, however, it would likely be because Dante Stills and Darius Stills have huge games for WVU’s defensive line. I doubt that’s enough to get it done, however.
31-17 Oklahoma State
Texas @ #14 Baylor
Saturday, November 23rd 2:30 PM CT, FS1
This is a massively important game that the Bears need to be emotionally up for after their draining loss last weekend. #14 Baylor (9-1, 6-1) is easily in control of their Big 12 destiny. Win this game and they have locked up a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Lose this one and they have to beat Kansas in Lawrence next weekend to secure their spot. Texas (6-4, 4-3) is technically still vying for a spot in the championship, but their last second loss to Iowa State last weekend really hurt them. They no loner control their own destiny and need either Baylor or Oklahoma to collapse down the stretch. On paper, Baylor is a clear favorite against Texas with a 62.6% chance of winning according to FPI, sitting as a 5.5 point favorite. However, with both teams coming off of difficult losses, it will really come down to which team is able to get emotionally up enough to claim victory. Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger has proven that he is great against bad defenses, and average to even bad against good defenses. Baylor boasts the best defense in the conference. That’s bad for Ehlinger. While Baylor’s offense has been anything but consistent, they ought to get enough going to beat the Longhorns and secure a likely rematch with OU.
Kansas State @ Texas Tech
Saturday, November 23rd 6:00 PM CT, FS1
Texas Tech (4-6, 2-5) is looking at the wrong end of bowl eligibility entering its last two games. They have to beat Kansas State (6-4, 3-4) this weekend and then Texas next weekend to go bowling. A tall order, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Kansas State is merely playing for pride and bowl placement at this point in the season. However, Tech did show fight against TCU last weekend, putting up 31 points on a defense that held Baylor to nine points in regulation. In fact, Tech is favored by 2.5 points at the writing of this article. I’ll take the Red Raiders to win this one at home, setting up a crucial game next weekend against the Longhorns.
33-28 Texas Tech
TCU @ #9 Oklahoma
Saturday, November 23rd 7:00 PM CT, FOX
In a similar theme to much of this week, TCU (5-5, 3-4) is fighting for bowl eligibility. However, they have the luxury of only needing one more win. If they can accomplish that in Norman against #9 Oklahoma (9-1, 6-1), then well played. However, that seems quite unlikely with a 18 point spread in favor of the Sooners. TCU’s last opportunity would then be against West Virginia at home. Oklahoma is in must win mode for the rest of the season to have a chance at the CFP. Similar to Baylor, a win here locks up their appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game. A loss and their chance of making the championship would come down to Bedlam. Realistically, there is a good chance OU probably wins this game but they have really not been winning the eye test with flying colors their last three games. Those games have included a loss to Kansas State, a one point win over Iowa State who was a two point conversion from pulling the upset, and a massive comeback to beat Baylor by only three points. This team is flawed. TCU has a good enough defense that they could take advantage of some of those flaws, especially Jalen Hurts’s propensity toward turnovers. Something feels odd about this game. I’m calling purple teams striking twice against OU and TCU winning this one in a nail biter, throwing the conference into a bit of late season chaos.