Week 5 is a slate that is a ball of clay in terms of wagering. You’ll need to shape your own little creation and be proud of it. There aren’t many games that lend themselves to strong opinions...
UNLESS YOU’RE ME. AND YOU HAVE NO FEAR.
COLORADO (-9) vs UCLA
More like CoWOAHrado. This is an improved Buffalo’s offense, lead by Steven Montez and transfer running back Travon McMillian.
But it gets better. UCLA is very butt. Each team that has played UCLA has looked exceedingly competent, if not dominant at times.
Colorado’s strength of schedule isn’t the most impressive, their P5 wins being over REELING Nebraska and Colorado State programs, but the eye test is there. Take the Buffs at anything 12 or less.
KENTUCKY (-2) vs South Carolina
4-0 Kentucky might just be flat out good. We knew they could run the ball when they put 229 yards of work in on the ground vs Mississippi State. Benny Snell Jr. is a legitimate stud, picking up over 6 yards a carry.
South Carolina is good. Don’t let my confidence in Kentucky fool you. While looking pedestrian vs Georgia, that doesn’t really help us place them in the context of non-National Championship contenders.
The reason Kentucky is play here is HOW Georgia beat up on Kentucky - with 271 yards rushing. USC was hoping to get prime defensive lineman D.J. Wonnum back, but he will miss at least one more game with his ankle injury. It isn’t getting any better this week.
Kentucky rushes early and often, ending up with 300+ yards and 3 scores from Benny. Take Kentucky to cover anything less than 3.
INDIANA (-17) vs Rutgers
Rutgers on the road vs a team that can field 11 players on both sides of the ball AND special teams?
I’ll take the latter minus anything.
The Baylor Bet
Oklahoma isn’t as strong as they were last year, but they might be more comfortable. Kyler Murray has admittedly looked WAY better than I expected, and the Sooner offense still has an entire garage of fun skill position toys to play with. Trey Sermon still averages 6 yards a carry, and freshman WR CeeDee Lamb is dynamic.
That being said, OU has seen two tough weeks in a row. A more competitive tilt than many expected in Ames vs Iowa State, and the infamous PayPerView game last week vs. Army.
I think OU can and will score on Baylor. My interest in the line for this game engages when I realize Mike Stoops is still the Sooner defensive coordinator. I think Baylor will score a minimum of 21 points.
A lot would have to unfold contrary to expectation for Baylor to win this game, but I think there is a real chance Baylor covers a 17 point spread. A game score something in the range of 35-24 or 42-28 makes sense to me. Take Baylor with slight caution, but not if the line decreases.
Baylor (+17) @ Oklahoma
Post your action for this week in the comments.