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What is the minimum number of wins Baylor football needs next season?

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NCAA Football: Iowa State at Baylor Andrew Dieb-USA TODAY Sports

Well the college basketball season is over and spring practice is upon us, so football is starting to creep closer. With lots of articles coming out trying to name teams that will improve this year, Baylor seems to be a favorite. CBS lists Baylor as the second most likely team to improve by two wins next season. ESPN lists Baylor as getting just over 6 wins and becoming bowl eligible according to their FPI. So the question this article poses, then, is what is the fewest wins that Baylor could get and still consider the season successful/a substantial improvement? To help in this discussion, here is Baylor’s 2018 football schedule:

9/1 Abilene Christian

9/8 @ UTSA

9/15 Duke

9/22 Kansas

9/29 @ Oklahoma

10/6 Kansas State

10/13 @ Texas

10/25 @ West Virgina

11/3 Oklahoma State

11/10 @ Iowa State

11/17 TCU

11/24 Texas Tech

I think that, while missing a bowl game again would be disappointing on a certain level, 5 wins is the minimum to feel that the program still could be moving in the right direction. Anything less than 5 and things get dicey. Where are those 5 wins likely to come from? According to ESPN’s FPI, the most likely wins in order of most to least are Abilene Christian (99.3%), UTSA (90.0%), Kansas (85.9%), Kansas State (60.2%), and Duke (55.0%). The other games their FPI has Baylor favored in are TCU (52.9%) and Texas Tech (50.2%). So at least 5 wins is definitely a strong possibility at this point. Even a bowl game seems tangible. Which of these games do you think Baylor should win? Are there any upsets the Bears ought to pull? Would you be happy with 5 wins or is the basement higher or lower than that? Let us know in the comments!