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Big 12 Tournament Seeding Scenarios

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One week left!

NCAA Basketball: Big 12 Championship-TCU vs Oklahoma Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Big 12 Tournament starts next Wednesday in Kansas City. Teams 7-10 meet that night, and then the winners advance to play the top six seeds in the quarterfinals on Thursday.

With two games left, we have a lot of scenarios left.

Here are the wins of Big 12 teams entering the final week:

1) Kansas (12-4)- Clinched at least the two seed. Barring Texas Tech winning out and Kansas losing out, they’ll be the top seed. Remaining: Texas and Oklahoma State.

2) Texas Tech (10-6)- Beat West Virginia, and they are at least the two seed. Lose out and and they would be, at worst, the four seed. Remaining: West Virginia and TCU.

3) West Virginia (10-6)- Win out and they would be the No. 2 seed. Beat Tech, and they clinch the three seed. Remaining: Texas Tech and Texas.

4) Kansas State (9-7)- Win out, and they can be as high as the three. Struggle in tiebreakers because of record against top three teams in the conference. Lose out and they can fall as low as seven. Remaining: TCU and Baylor.

5) TCU (8-8)- Win out, and they can move as high as third. Lose out, and they could be as low as eighth. Remaining: Kansas State and Texas Tech.

6) Baylor (7-9)- Win out, and they can be fifth. Lose out, and they can be as low as ninth. Remaining: Oklahoma and Kansas State.

7) Texas (7-9)-Win out, and they can be fifth. Lose out, and they can be as low as ninth. Remaining: Kansas and West Virginia.

8) Oklahoma (7-9)-Win out, and they can finish fourth. Lose out, and they can be as low as ninth. Remaining: Baylor and Iowa State.

9) Oklahoma State (6-10)- Win out, and they can reach sixth. Lose out, and they’re ninth. Remaining: Iowa State and Kansas.

10) Iowa State (4-12)- clinched the 10 seed. Remaining: Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Here’s the Big 12 tiebreaking procedure:

Here’s an explanation:

Iowa State has clinched the 10 seed. With only four conference wins, they can’t win more than six league games. Oklahoma State could win six as well. But if Kansas gets the top seed, then Oklahoma State would have the tiebreaker by beating the league’s top team. And even if Kansas ties at 12 wins with West Virginia or Texas Tech, Oklahoma State has a better common record against the top teams in the league than Iowa State, by virtue of Oklahoma State beating Kansas once.

Kansas is almost assuredly the top seed. With 12 wins, they’ve at least split the league. Texas Tech and West Virginia can each win 12 games. But those two play again, so one team will lose and can’t get to 12 wins. If WVU wins out, and KU loses out, then KU wins the top seed by virtue of sweeping WVU. If Texas Tech wins out, while KU loses out, then Texas Tech is the No. 1 seed. Texas Tech would have a better record against Oklahoma State, who will finish higher than Iowa State.

West Virginia and Texas Tech have 10 wins. That means, at worst, they will be top five seeds because 6-10 in the league can’t get to 10 wins. Texas Tech and West Virginia play again, so one of those teams will get to 11 wins. Kansas State went 0-6 against the league’s top three teams, so anybody is going to beat Kansas State in a tiebreaker.

The tiebreakers get weird from here. Baylor and Oklahoma play, so one of those teams can’t win nine games. That means Kansas State can’t fall below one of those teams.

Oklahoma State has a problem if they end up in a tiebreaker with Baylor or TCU because they were swept by those two. Three team tiebreakers that get those teams in the mix really hurt them.

Baylor:

Win out:

Baylor would have nine wins. That guarantees they’d have more wins than Iowa State, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, regardless of other games. That puts them at least at the No. 7 seed.

If Baylor wins out, Kansas State, TCU and Texas could also have nine wins. Kansas State plays TCU, so if Kansas State beat them, they’d have 10 wins. If TCU beats them, Kansas State would finish with nine wins.

Let’s be real. Texas is probably not going to win in both Allen Filedhouse and against West Virginia.

In a Kansas State, TCU and Baylor three team tie, Kansas State would be 2-2 in common games (split TCU, split Baylor), TCU would be 2-2 (split) and Baylor would be (1-3). The Bears would have the worst common record and would finish 6th in the league.

If TCU gets to 10 wins, Baylor would be left in a head-to-head with Kansas State. The teams would have split the season series, which would then lead to the next tiebreaker, record against highest finishing Big 12 teams. Baylor beat Kansas and Texas Tech, while Kansas State did not. That means Baylor would win the tiebreaker and finish 5th.

TCU loses out, then Baylor finishes with more wins and is the 5th seed. Kansas State would beat TCU and finish with at least 10 wins and finish 4th.

Again, Texas could win out and find their way into this mix. But it gets very messy. Plus, if Baylor and Texas both win, each team will be so happy they’ve made the NCAA Tournament that they’ll ignore any mistake by the Big 12 seeding the teams.

Most likely seed: 5th.

Split the games:

This depends as well. If Baylor beats Oklahoma, then Oklahoma would also finish, at best, 8-10.

If Baylor beats Kansas State, but loses to Oklahoma, then Oklahoma could have nine wins.

Oklahoma State could get to eight wins by beating Iowa State and Kansas. They get Kansas at home, after the Jayhawks will have likely wrapped up an outright Big 12 title, so maybe Oklahoma State gets to eight.

Texas can finish with eight. TCU can. Oklahoma can. And Oklahoma State can.

In this weird scenario, Baylor can be helped by Oklahoma State and Texas finishing 8-10 (for Big 12 purposes, Texas finishing 7-11 is the best for not having Texas take one of the final spots in the field). Baylor swept Texas and Oklahoma State, which means Baylor’s collective record would go up by adding these teams.

Baylor’s highest finish, if they split, would be sixth. That’d be tough because Baylor is in a tough spot with head-to-head results against Oklahoma. The Bears were swept by the Horned Frogs, who will finish ahead of Texas, barring a wild finish to the league. That tiebreaker would really hurt the Bears. Oklahoma is probably not losing to Iowa State, so getting Oklahoma out of an 8-10 tiebreaker is unlikely.

Most likely seed: 7th.

Lose Out:

Baylor would be 7-11. Texas can be 7-11. Oklahoma State can be 7-11, or worse too, as long as Kansas beats them or Iowa State does. To go 7-11, Baylor has to lose to Oklahoma, so at best, Baylor could be 7th. That ensures Baylor would have to play on Wednesday.

Baylor would be in a great spot in a tiebreaker against Oklahoma State and/or Texas because they swept those teams.

Most likely: 7th.