Baylor takes on Stephen F. Austin at 7:30 tomorrow at the Ferrell Center. The game airs on Fox Sports Southwest affiliates and Fox College Sports Central.
1) Aggression- Stephen F. Austin is 344th in turnover percentage but just 342nd in free throw rate. They turn it over all the time and still find a way to not get the line. Baylor should take plenty of chances in the zone and gamble that the Lumberjacks won’t get to the line much.
2) Defensive rebounding- This is maybe the area where the Lumberjacks could make the game closer than it should be. Stephen F. Austin is top 100 in offensive rebounding and Baylor ranks 212th in defensive rebounding. This team shoots pretty well, so they don’t need any extra chances.
3) Make threes- Stephen F. Austin is unquestionably a terrible 3-point defense. Opponents are attempting 47% of their shots from beyond the arc, and they’re making 38.1% of them. A lot of 3-point defense is about limiting attempts, but this team can’t even do that. The Bears have been abysmal from deep. They can win being pretty bad from three, but if this turns into Texas Southern 2.0, expect Baylor to end up bricking open triples all night.
Baylor is better than Stephen F. Austin. The team has more size, speed and talent. They shouldn’t lose this game.
The Lumberjacks aren’t what they were a few years ago, and neither are the Bears. Baylor is expected to win this game 87% of the time, per KenPom. Those are excellent odds, but 13% events happen every day.
Baylor gets the victory. They hit a few more threes tomorrow and pull away 78-62.
Season Prediction Record: 5-4